UCLA Football: Can the Bruins become bowl eligible? If so, when?

The UCLA Football team needs two wins to become bowl eligible. Can they make that happen in their last five games of the season against difficult opponents?

With their victory over Oregon, the UCLA Football team matched their win total from 2016, getting their fourth victory of 2017 with five games left to play. This means the Bruins only need two more games to become bowl eligible. Is it possible for them to reach that milestone this season and if so, when?

Earlier this week I wrote about UCLA’s remaining schedule, which is perilous, to say the least. Collectively, the record of teams the Bruins are yet to play is 24-13, with Cal being the only team without a winning record. There are several things to consider here when trying to decipher how the Bruins will finish the season.

UCLA’s remaining schedule:

at #12 Washington (6-1, 3-1)
at Utah (4-3, 1-3)
vs Arizona State (4-3, 3-1)
at #21 USC (6-2, 4-1)
vs Cal (4-4, 1-4)

UCLA has three road games remaining with two of them coming these next two weeks at Washington and Utah (on a Friday night). Not only will it be difficult to chisel wins in these two games, but as Jon Wilner of The Mercury News points out, in the last season and a half in the Pac-12, teams that play a Saturday road game followed by a Friday road game have gone 0-5 in that second game. That’s not promising for the Bruins, especially since it is not likely they win the Saturday game.

Home Record: 4-0 | Road Record: 0-3

So If UCLA loses these next two games, their first opportunity to win another game comes November 11 when UCLA returns to the Rose Bowl to take on Arizona State. The good thing about UCLA’s last three games (incluidng ASU) means they stay in the Los Angeles area. The Bruins play at USC and then finish the season at the Rose Bowl against Cal.

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First off, it is possible UCLA could lose all five games (trust me on this). In the last season and a half, UCLA has only two wins against teams with a winning record (BYU in 2016 and Texas A&M in 2017). Plus, UCLA is privy to losing games they should win, call it a curse.

That is why there is the possibility UCLA loses to ASU and Cal. Despite the home field advantage, the Sun Devils have been a surprise this season and they are 2-0 in the last two visits to Pasadena. Additionally, Cal does not do well at the Rose Bowl, but never count out a team that has as many bi-polar tendencies as the Bruins.

Equally, I could see a scenario where the Bruins pull off the win at Utah, who has underperformed this year. Also, UCLA is 2-0 in their last two battles in Salt Lake City. And even though it is a bit of a stretch, the way USC’s season is going with all their injuries, coaching woes and the fact that it is a rivalry game, gives UCLA a chance.

So with that in mind, it seems highly probably UCLA gets to the 6-win mark, but where will two more wins come from? Let us look at ESPN’s game predictor, to figure this out.

UCLA’s chance of victory, per ESPN’s match predictor (as of 10/26/17)

at Washington – 9.1%
at Utah – 57.0%
vs ASU – 64.2%
at USC – 30.0%
vs Cal – 75.9%

If UCLA manages to defeat Utah and ASU, the Bruins will become bowl eligible going into the USC game. This could the most realistic scenario. With a win against Cal, the Bruins could finish 7-5. At the very least, UCLA should be able to get those last two wins to become bowl eligible, which could come against Cal and either Utah or ASU.

Next: What’s Bruin Show – Episode 147 – UCLA Football needs to get husky vs. Washington

This of course all depends on how UCLA prepares for their next opponents. Jim Mora and his staff know there is a rough road ahead and there is still time to make this season respectable. If the Bruins want to shock the world and make a statement, now will be the time.