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Go Joe Bruin Bracketology – Week 1

By Jake Liker

Mar 16, 2015; Indianapolis, IN, USA; A large banner displaying the NCAA Mens Basketball Championship bracket is on the front of the J.W. Marriott hotel in downtown Indianapolis. Mandatory Credit: Brian Spurlock-USA TODAY Sports
Mar 16, 2015; Indianapolis, IN, USA; A large banner displaying the NCAA Mens Basketball Championship bracket is on the front of the J.W. Marriott hotel in downtown Indianapolis. Mandatory Credit: Brian Spurlock-USA TODAY Sports /
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Breakdown #1
Breakdown #1 /

The Breakdown

The advantage of using a formula is that it quantifies just how close a team is from being in the tournament or from being out of it. My formula always tends to center around 0.00 as the cutoff mark for an at-large bid. A team with a negative score is a below average bubble team.

There are 351 teams that play in division I. Inputting data for 351 teams would take an eternity, so I only evaluated teams that meets at least one of 3 qualifications:

  1. Currently lead their conference (RPI used as tiebreaker)
  2. Are in the top 125 in RPI
  3. Are in the top 100 in KenPom, Sagarin, and BPI (because RPI can be unreasonable at times, see: Houston, Nebraska, Oklahoma State)

The number of teams I evaluate grows smaller as the season progresses. But for now, things are still wide open, so more teams deserve a close look.

More from Go Joe Bruin

One more thing: you may notice that Cal has higher score than Florida State, but is projected as an 11 seed while the Seminoles are projected as a 10 seed. I fill out the bracket using the official “2015-16 NCAA Division I Men’s Basketball Championship Principles and Procedures for Establishing the Bracket,” which prohibits any teams from the same conference that played each other twice during the regular season and conference tournament until the Sweet 16.

Because we don’t know if a given pair of teams from the same conference will meet a second or third time in the conference tournament, I set up the bracket so that no two teams from the same conference can meet until the Sweet 16, regardless of how many games they played against one another. Because the ACC already had a 3 seed in the South, a 6 seed in both the Midwest and the West, any ACC team that was an 11 seed had to play in the East.

Because of the number of conference winners that would not have received an at-large bid otherwise, each of the last 4 teams in, including Syracuse (ACC) had to be an 11 seed. Thus, I had no choice but to switch Florida State, the best 11 seed, and Cal, the worst 10 seed, to avoid the inter-conference conflict.

Next: The UCLA Outlook