UCLA Football 2017: A numbers game against the Trojans (unfortunately)

The UCLA Football team takes on he USC Trojans this weekend and when you compare the two, well, take a look for yourself…

When it comes to rivalry games, there is a saying that usually follows: “You can throw the records out when these two teams play”. Well, this year the UCLA Football team would love to throw out their record as the struggling Bruins (5-5) travel to The Coliseum to take on the USC Trojans (9-2).

After a loss to Notre Dame, USC has reeled off three convincing victories in a row. Meanwhile, the Bruins continue their pattern of playing well at home while struggling on the road. Let’s take a look at a few stats and trends that may sway this game one way or another.

Opponents run 64.38% of the time against UCLA (4th highest percentage in the nation)

The Bruins’ run defense is giving up 302 yards a game on the ground. So obviously teams are going to run a majority of the time at UCLA (honestly, I was surprised it wasn’t a higher percentage). Even with the ability of Sam Darnold to sling the ball all over the field, I would expect Ronald Jones to get more than his usual 18.4 carries a game. It will probably be closer to the 27 carries he had against Arizona.

UCLA also has a knack for turning average running backs into great ones. It could be scary what type of running back the Bruins turn Jones into.

To continue the ground assault…

BOULDER, CO – NOVEMBER 11: Ronald Jones II /

USC averages 5.2 yards per rushing attempt

That number looks even worse when combined with a Bruins’ rushing defense that gives up almost six yards a carry (128 in the nation). Stack that on top of the fact that UCLA’s opponents run the ball over 50 times a game and you end up with a tired defense that can’t stop the run. Unless DC Tom Bradley can come up with some new schemes (in the 11th game of the season!) Ronald Jones and Co. may have a field day come Saturday.

USC scores (TD or FG) 73.17% of the time in the red zone

Even though the Trojans are scoring 35.5 points a game, they are having trouble getting in the end zone once they get inside the 20-yard line. Their scoring rate of just over 73% puts them 116th in the nation. Darnold does have 13 red zone touchdown throws but a lot of USC’s scores have come on big plays. If UCLA can keep the Trojans from too many long yardage plays, they may have a chance of keeping USC off the scoreboard a bit.

Bonus Stat – USC has scored in the red zone only 61.54% the past three games

UCLA is 5-0 at home and 0-5 on the road

More from Go Joe Bruin

The Bruins have been lights out at The Rose Bowl this year where they have yet to lose a game. Unfortunately, when they leave Pasadena, it’s like they are playing with the lights out. Of course, home field advantage helps but it may also have to do with the quality of opponents.

The five teams that the Bruins have beat at home have a combined record of 24-27. The only team they beat that is currently over .500 is 6-4 Texas A&M.

Compare that to the teams UCLA has lost to and their records are the complete opposite. Every team the Bruins have lost to are at least four games over .500 with the exception of 5-5 Utah. The combined records of those teams are 35-14.

Basically, the Bruins have been good at home because they have played poor teams at home and tough teams on the road.

So…how does it look this week for UCLA? Well, they are playing away from home against a team with a 9-2 record.

Next: Rosen vs. Darnold... it’s time to get it on!

We’ve all heard the saying that the game is played on the field, not on paper. I hope for the Bruins’ sake they don’t look at the paper and just go out and play the way we know they can.

Go Bruins!

UCLA Football vs. USC 2017: A numbers game against the Trojans (unfortunately)

By David Rosenthal | Nov 17, 2017