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UCLA Football: An early preview of the Cal Bears

By David Rosenthal

Sep 24, 2016; Pasadena, CA, USA; UCLA Bruins quarterback Josh Rosen (3) looks to the sideline during a break in play against the Stanford Cardinal during the second half at Rose Bowl. The Stanford Cardinal won 22-13. Mandatory Credit: Kelvin Kuo-USA TODAY Sports
Sep 24, 2016; Pasadena, CA, USA; UCLA Bruins quarterback Josh Rosen (3) looks to the sideline during a break in play against the Stanford Cardinal during the second half at Rose Bowl. The Stanford Cardinal won 22-13. Mandatory Credit: Kelvin Kuo-USA TODAY Sports /
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The UCLA Football Bruins will try to avenge their 2016 loss to Cal when both teams meet for their final PAC-12 game.

Last year the UCLA Football team went up to Berkeley and managed only 10 points against the PAC-12’s worst scoring defense in a 36-10 defeat.

That Cal team was led to victory by quarterback Davis Webb (32-48 2 TDs) and running back Khalfani Muhammad (116 yards).

This 2017 Cal team will have a different look, especially on offense. The Bears lost their three top offensive weapons, Webb, Muhammad, and their top receiver Chad Hansen. All three were taken in the 2017 NFL draft.

In addition to offensive changes, long time head coach Sonny Dykes has also been replaced by Justin Wilcox, longtime defensive coordinator at schools such as USC, Washington, and most recently, Wisconsin.

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Who: UCLA Bruins vs California Golden Bears

Where: The Rose Bowl, Pasadena, CA 

When: Friday, November 24

Cal’s 2016 record 5-7 overall,  3-6 Pac-12

CAL OFFENSE:

Last year the Golden Bears had a high-flying offense that scored more than 37 point a game. Unfortunately for first year head coach Justin Wilcox, but good for the rest of the conference, the Bears lost their top three offensive threats. Webb and Muhammad are gone, taking with them 5122 total yards (4295 from Webb). Their top wide receiver Chad Hansen is also gone to the NFL taking with him his team leading 92 catches, 1249 rec. yards, and 11 rec. TDs.

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Competing for the starting quarterback position will be four or five players who have just 18 collegiate pass attempts between them. Redshirt junior QB Chase Forrest is the only one in the group with any on field experience, throwing 18 passes in the 2015 season.

The Bears will probably rely heavily on their top returning running back Tre Watson (709 rushing yards, 4 TDs in 2016) until Cal finds a quarterback. When they do settle on a quarterback, he will have an experienced receiving corp to throw to. Cal returns four of their top seven receivers. Led by sophomore WR Demetris Robertson, the returning group accounted for 50 catches and 7 touchdowns last year.

Don’t look for Cal to throw the ball 52 times a game like last year, at least in the start of the season. With a new quarterback and a first year head coach coming from a defensive background, the 2016 Cal offense may have a different look than in years past.

Cal 2016 Offensive Stats

Total Offense: 513.3 yards/game (1st in PAC-12)

Passing Offense: 358.8 yards/games (2nd)

Rushing Offense: 154.3 yards/game (9th)

Scoring Offense: 37.1 points/game (3rd)

CAL DEFENSE

Cal had a difficult time stopping anyone on defense last year. Giving up 42.6 points/game, the Bears ranked 127th in scoring defense. Only Texas Tech ranked lower giving up 43.5 points per contest.

Their porous defense was most evident when opponents ran the ball. Giving up more than six yards per carry, the Bears were susceptible to almost every team’s rushing attack.

Nov 26, 2016; Berkeley, CA, USA; Mandatory Credit: Neville E. Guard-USA TODAY Sports
Nov 26, 2016; Berkeley, CA, USA; Mandatory Credit: Neville E. Guard-USA TODAY Sports /

Unfortunately, the Bruins didn’t take advantage of the Bear’s rushing defense last year. In their game up in Berkeley, UCLA Football rushers were only able to gain 84 yards on the ground. I guess the old saying held true: “The country’s second worst defense always beats the country’s second worst rushing team.”

This year, for better or worse, Cal returns seven of their top 10 tacklers from last year. Senior LB Devante Downs (83 tackles) and redshirt-senior LB Raymond Davison (69 tackles) will anchor the Bears’ defense. They should see some improvement simply based on the experience of these returning players and the defensive background of Coach Wilcox.

But even with improved Cal’s defense, especially against the run, it should still be in the bottom half of the PAC-12.

With a (hopefully) stable and healthy offensive line, this game should give the Bruins’ running backs a chance to redeem themselves from last year’s poor performance.

Cal 2016 Defensive Stats

Total Defense: 518.2 yards/games (10th in the PAC-12)

Passing Defense: 245.4 yards/game (7th)

Rushing Defense: 272.8 yards/game (Last)

Scoring Defense: 42.6 yards/game (Last)

FINAL ANALYSIS

Cal will have to replace their starting quarterback, top running back, and top receiver from last season. They will have to do all this under a first-year coach.

By the time the Bears visit UCLA, Cal will of had 11 games to figure out who’s running the show on the field and on the sideline. This will be the Bruins final regular season game. By this time the Bruins will have hopefully found their running back and will be comfortable under new OC Jedd Fisch.

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On paper, UCLA has more overall talent and is more experienced than Cal on offense. Both teams could be fighting for bowl eligibility again (hopefully it’s better than that for the Bruins) but a young offense for Cal may have trouble playing away from home.

Perhaps this will be a warm-up game for the Bruins, preparing for their next game, December 1, in Santa Clara.