UCLA Football enters 2015 with six of their twelve regular season games slated to be played away from the Rose Bowl. In conference, five of their nine games are on the road. Away from home last year, the Bruins went 5-0.
Many are asking, can the Bruins continue to knock down the doors of opponents’ stadiums like they did last year? In short, yes — they can, but likely wont. Quite frankly, regardless of the intriguing prospect that is starting a true freshman quarterback, things probably wont go all that well for UCLA this year. The real question here should honestly address the Bruins ability to dominate at all, let alone on the road.
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Before proceeding, let me first say that, yes, I know you will be whining that Josh Rosen is different, Josh Rosen is better than those I’m going to mention, or that Josh Rosen is the messiah and the Bruins saving grace. I offer you, in response, to embrace the notion that he can be all that down the line — but he probably wont be any of that in 2015. Josh Rosen is a special talent, and there is no denying that, but a decade of college football is ready to tell you that his talent is irrelevant.
Sep 23, 2013; Denver, CO, USA; Oakland Raiders quarterback Terelle Pryor (2) looks to pass the ball during the second half against the Denver Broncos at Sports Authority Field at Mile High. The Broncos won 37-21. Mandatory Credit: Chris Humphreys-USA TODAY Sports
Terelle Pryor, widely regarded as one of the best true freshman quarterbacks of all time, lead Ohio State to 10 wins in 2008. His starting running back, Beanie Wells, who would later go on to be a first round NFL pick (31st by the Arizona Cardinals), had amassed 1609 yards the previous season. In addition to Wells, the strong roster also included Malcolm Jenkins, the 2008 Jim Thorpe award recipient for the best defensive back in college football.
Together, they managed 10 wins — 10 impressive wins, with 3 losses on a very tough schedule. Allowing only 13.9 points per game made Pryor’s job easier — and that is how the Buckeyes found success. In fact, the Buckeyes found more success than any other Power-5 team starting a true freshman QB in the last 10 years.
Okay great. That is out of the way — and I’m not going to get into every other quarterback, because you can do that research on your own. The important part is that we recognize and acknowledge that the best case scenario in recent history would put the Bruins at ten wins again if they managed to match it — and ten wins does not earn you a trip to the College Football Playoff. On top of that, it’s highly unlikely that they muster up a season of that caliber. Regardless, lets do some comparisons.
Terelle Pryor, widely regarded as one of the best true freshman quarterbacks of all time, lead Ohio State to 10 wins in 2008.
Paul Perkins rushed for 1575 yards in 2014, leading the PAC-12 and barely trailing the aforementioned 1609 by Beanie Wells. In that sense, the Bruins running back situation can be considered just as good, if not better than, OSU’s in 2008 if we include the other guys on the depth chart.
The Bruins do lack a Malcolm Jenkins caliber player, however. Myles Jack is a freak athlete — a beast of a defender and a bruising fourth-and-short back. Still, he is not the best linebacker in the country, let alone the conference (see Scooby Wright III). Ishmael Adams? His package of blazing speed and spectacular vision has made him a top tier return man, but by no standards the best corner in America. From there, the list drops off.
UCLA Bruins
Finally, we come to defense — and as you know, it wins championships (or at least games). UCLA’s defense gave up 28.1 PPG last year (77th in the country), will be working with a new DC, and lacks an all first team defender. Simply put, the Bruin defense is not going to look like Jim Tressel’s 2008 squad’s.
Now, we can’t ignore a few things here — but we can negate them. Many would say that UCLA’s best assets are that they return the most offensive line starts in college football, have more returning starters overall than most teams in the FBS, and have been getting better year by year. People love to hop on board and sail away when thinking about the returning offensive line starts, but I would argue against that stat’s importance. While UCLA returns plenty of experience on the left and right sides of center Jake Brendel, this remains a line comprised of players who have given up more sacks than most can imagine possible — and then some. What’s to say anything has changed? Then consider that the same argument could be made to debunk the idea of guaranteed success due to experience and returning starters on the defense, just at a less significant level. UCLA’s defense is not bad by any standard, but it’s far from special, and they return those traits. Finally, positive outlook based on their consistent rise is flawed simply in the sense that UCLA’s success relied so heavily on Brett Hundley, who is off taking reps in Green Bay.
Sure, the transitive property isn’t reliable in sports — in fact, from week to week it generally isn’t even reasonable to base ideas off of. But this is more than just a set of variables or simple assumption; rather, it is a collection of ideas about certain aspects of UCLA Football and how they match up against history. Josh Rosen would need a true all-time-season to make UCLA a national contender, and the rest of the team would have to step up a whole lot as well. As is commonly said, hope for the best, but prepare for the worst.