Close your eyes. Not seeing is believing. With 351 teams to choose from, the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee isn’t going to be able to watch all of them. All the committee will have are numbers on paper. Can UCLA make the tournament? Can the Bruins impress blind men?
Everything comes down to the blind résumé. Let’s take a look at the résumés of four bubble teams from Joe Lunardi’s latest bracketology projections. Only one of these teams qualify for the tournament.
From best team to worst, Lunardi ranked the teams B, A, C, D. Their identities:
Team A – Boise State • Team B – UCLA • Team C – Miami (FL) • Team D – Oregon
The data used above is updated for all games up to and including Saturday, two days after Lunardi published these projections.
Busting Brackets
The Bruins have done a good job of separating themselves from the peloton this week, with wins over Oregon and Oregon State. The Ducks are coming off of a loss to the Bruins, Boise State was upset by Fresno State on Saturday, and the Hurricanes lost to Wake Forest on Wednesday.
This year’s tournament field is as thin as ever by recent years’ standards. Bubble teams like George Washington, Seton Hall and Old Dominion continue to shoot themselves in the foot, which is why the Bruins’ tournament outlook is much more optimistic than it would be in previous years.
Feb 14, 2015; Providence, RI, USA; Seton Hall Pirates guard Isaiah Whitehead (15), forward Stephane Manga (45) and forward Brandon Mobley (2) react during the second half of a game against the Providence Friars at Dunkin Donuts Center. Mandatory Credit: Mark L. Baer-USA TODAY Sports
With the best RPI, SOS, and BPI of all four teams, committee members will be able to overlook the Bruins’ ten losses and atrocious record when playing away from Pauley Pavilion.
Because whether or not you agree with the stat, RPI is the single most important one when it comes to deciding the field of 68. RPI is the only statistic directly referenced in handout given to every committee member, the NCAA Division I Men’s Basketball Championship principles and procedures for establishing the bracket.
Whether or not you agree with the stat, RPI is the single most important one when it comes to deciding the field of 68.
As other fringe teams choke left and right, the Bruins have to make sure they don’t join them in their fall to the
abyss, the bottomless pit of despair that is
NIT. The first question to be answered is, how many games do the Bruins have to win? In recent years, the cutoff for power conference teams has tended to be 21, but in a season like this year’s, 20 isn’t a stretch.
The Home Stretch
UCLA plays the Arizona schools on the road, the Washington schools and USC at home, and finish things up in the Pac-12 tournament. Below are various scenarios, including possible records in their final five regular season games, followed by their total regular season record.
0-5, 16-15: UCLA basketball can kiss an at-large bid goodbye. They’ll need to win the conference tournament if they want to go dancing.
1-4, 17-14: For the Bruins to pull off an at-large bid with this poor finish, three things need to happen: the one win has to be in Arizona, they have to beat Arizona or Utah again in the conference tournament, and they have to make the conference final. That still leaves the Bruins gambling with a 20-15 record, but three top 25 wins would make it more difficult for the committee to overlook UCLA.
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2-3, 18-13: The three-item checklist in the 1-4 scenario becomes more lax if the Bruins win two of their last five. The Bruins only need to go 2 for 3. They can lose to Arizona in the regular season, and then beat them or Utah en route to the conference final. If they beat Arizona in the regular season, they only have to focus on making the conference final without worrying about who they have to beat to get there.
What is scary about finishing 10-7 in the Pac-12, however, is that a top four finish and subsequent first round bye in the conference tournament becomes a conceivable notion. Without an easy win over a bottom team in the conference to pad their record, UCLA would finish 20-14 with only two top 25 wins. Bruin fans would certainly be much happier with a 20-15 record with three top 25 wins. Then again, 10-7 is unlikely to earn Steve Alford and company a first round bye in the conference tournament.
Feb 14, 2015; Los Angeles, CA, USA; UCLA Bruins head coach Steve Alford during the game against the Oregon Ducks at Pauley Pavilion. Mandatory Credit: Richard Mackson-USA TODAY Sports
3-2, 19-12: This should be enough to get the Bruins a first round bye in Vegas, which makes wins number 20 and 21 a bit harder to achieve. If they lose to Arizona in the regular season, and win one game in the conference tournament, UCLA finishes 20-13 with just one top 25 win. In other words, no guarantees. But if they get to the conference final and they should be in the tournament.
4-1, 20-11: At this point, this is the most likely scenario for the Bruins. In all likelihood, the boys from Westwood win out in the regular season except in Arizona. One conference tournament win on top of this, and the Bruins are set. But what if they get knocked out early on before they can win a game in Sin City? The one regular season loss becomes much more vital.
If the only regular season blip comes at the hands of one of Washington, Washington State, or Arizona State, the Bruins will be fine (20-12, two top 25 wins). If the loss is in Arizona, things are a bit riskier for the Bruins, relying on just 20 wins and one top 25 win. Perhaps the scariest outcome for UCLA would be if the loss was against USC at home. Committee members have short memories, so 20-12 and two top 25 wins becomes vastly more unstable if the UCLA finishes the season with two consecutive losses, one of which coming at home against a rival that’s woefully out-of-form.
5-0, 21-10: The Bruins are in, no matter what happens in the conference tournament. Worst case scenario, UCLA gets trounced in the first game they play at the MGM Grand, they finish 21-11, and they have wins over Arizona and Utah under their belt.
Jan 8, 2015; Los Angeles, CA, USA; UCLA Bruins head coach Steve Alford and guard Bryce Alford (20) react to a blocked shot in the second overtime of the game against the Stanford Cardinal at Pauley Pavilion. UCLA won 86-81 in double overtime. Mandatory Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports
But there’s a shortcut…
UCLA’s best wins of the season don’t have to be limited to Utah and Arizona (hypothetically). Sitting at 39th in RPI rankings is a team that the Bruins have beaten twice, once at home in double overtime, and once on the road by two.
If the Stanford Cardinal perform well enough in the home stretch to get into a hot streak, they could propel themselves into the top 25. In that case, even if the Bruins don’t beat the Wildcats or the Utes again this season, UCLA would still finish with three top 25 wins.
At the end of the day, the Bruins have to handle their own business, and as of late, that’s exactly what they’re doing. They’re peaking at the perfect time and played well to earn one of their biggest wins of the season on Saturday, a decisive victory over a fellow bubble team in the Ducks.
Bubbles are being burst across the nation. All the Bruins have to do is stay afloat.