It’s that time of year that comes for every college program in the land and the UCLA Football team is no exception. The are no more games to be played and for the senior class that means moving on to the next stage in their lives. For underclassmen though, leaving school early is often a boom or bust prospect.
After losing in depressing fashion to Kansas State in an already semi-depressing Cactus Bowl, the Bruins are now entering a “dead period” to some fans. That couldn’t be farther from the truth. The UCLA Football team looks like it can make some serious noise in recruiting this year, is still primed for major shakeups on the coaching staff and of course there will be roster changes.
Those roster shakeups will come in the form of players leaving the program with medical retirements, transfers and just those that decided to hang it up which is not a knock on their character at all in my opinion. In fact a player who can work that hard for so long, know when he’s done and then have the fortitude and maturity to step away cleanly is incredibly admirable.
However, the majority of players won’t fall into those categories and instead will begin looking towards graduation and the NFL Draft.
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In order for a player to be draft eligible that player must be at least three years removed from high school. So while obviously seniors make up the majority of the draft pool, it’s inflated with redshirt juniors, true juniors and, in some instances, redshirt sophomores.
While a true junior like UCLA Football QB Josh Rosen is all but guaranteed of a top-10 selection, that’s not always the case for players who declare early. The unfortunate truth is that many players who leave school early don’t get drafted high and in fact a significant portion of them go undrafted. In 2017 of the 95 underclassmen who declared early, 28 of them went undrafted. That’s over 30 percent and while that percentage might seem low, it’s still a chunk.
If you look over that list you’ll see the names of guys who had the tools in college and actually produced well enough to be considered for the draft but for one reason or another decided to leave school early. Damien Mama, K.D. Cannon and Jerod Evans all had production at their respective institutions and likely could have improved their draft stock by returning to school.
Every year the scouting community, including me, are perplexed by some of the names we see declaring early.
“What is he doing? He’s not going to get picked high. He’s way too raw. He could really help himself by returning.”
Those are some of the most common complaints thrown around by many of us looking at it from an outside perspective. Here’s where we have to be more cautious about commenting too quickly on the situation. We, on the outside, have no idea why a player leaves early. Yes the answer may be money but not in the context that first comes to mind.
Today UCLA QB Josh Rosen said he would look at the NFL after the bowl game and when asked about what makes him want to play in the @Cactus_Bowl when other high profile players have skipped bowl games... he had this great answer. #UCLA #CactusBowl pic.twitter.com/fArs2leCix
— Chris Lilly (@ChrisLilly_) December 24, 2017
In the above interview Rosen reminds us that some guys on the team have families they have to start working for and football might be their most marketable skill. Perhaps those players even want to go back to school but just can’t afford to do it right now. They can’t afford to play for free. If you’re going to argue that they’re not playing for free I’d challenge you to pay some bills with “free” textbooks or get that on staff tutor to watch your young child. Not gonna happen.
Oh and for any of you with your arms folded saying “then they shouldn’t have a kid” I’d respond with “let’s be realistic”. These young men are in college and life happens.
Still, the prospect of declaring early is risky business. You could always return to school, finish your degree and possibly improve your draft stock and get yourself a fatter check from the NFL. You could also be injured in the first play of the next season or actually see your stock fall. Striking while the iron is hot is always preferred but doesn’t guarantee anything.
Take a look a guy like former Bruin Rahim Moore who declared a year early after leading the nation in interceptions a sophomore and continuing to snag interceptions as a junior. However there were multiples holes in his game that were exploited at the NFL level. He was able to secure a second round selection based almost purely on his ability to make interceptions but a guy who doesn’t tackle well or have great speed will have a hard time making it.
The last time the UCLA Football program saw a guy leave school early in head scratching fashion would probably be someone like Ellis McCarthy who never was healthy/in shape enough to see the field and likely as a result just didn’t develop much despite being loaded with talent. He declared early for the 2015 NFL Draft and went undrafted to no one’s surprise.
If I could give advice to each and every UCLA Football player planning to declare early, including Rosen, it would be to have plan. Why are you declaring early? If you felt like you could return to school do you think you could have helped your draft stock? What is the contingency plan? If money for your family is the goal, can you make it work with undrafted free agent money or do you need a first round signing bonus to solve the problem?
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While I won’t speculate on which UCLA Football Bruins could declare early, and trust me there are a couple that will, I trust and hope that they all understand the potential risks this move can carry. Nothing about college football or the NFL is risk free but taking “unnecessary” risks, as some may see it, will always be scrutinized by those on the outside.