Go Joe Bruin
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Go Joe Bruin Bracketology – Week 1

By Jake Liker

Mar 16, 2015; Indianapolis, IN, USA; A large banner displaying the NCAA Mens Basketball Championship bracket is on the front of the J.W. Marriott hotel in downtown Indianapolis. Mandatory Credit: Brian Spurlock-USA TODAY Sports
Mar 16, 2015; Indianapolis, IN, USA; A large banner displaying the NCAA Mens Basketball Championship bracket is on the front of the J.W. Marriott hotel in downtown Indianapolis. Mandatory Credit: Brian Spurlock-USA TODAY Sports /
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Apr 11, 2015; Augusta, GA, USA; Course worker Becky Sharpton organizes the numbers from the main leaderboard during the third round of The Masters golf tournament at Augusta National Golf Club. Mandatory Credit: Rob Schumacher-USA TODAY Sports
Apr 11, 2015; Augusta, GA, USA; Course worker Becky Sharpton organizes the numbers from the main leaderboard during the third round of The Masters golf tournament at Augusta National Golf Club. Mandatory Credit: Rob Schumacher-USA TODAY Sports /

Cracking The Code

Ever since I started my own bracketology in 2014, I’ve done things a little differently; I have a bigger goal in mind than just accurate predictions. The ultimate goal is to find a formula that can project what the bracket will look like once Selection Sunday is over, without any subjective human judgement.

UCLA Bruins
UCLA Bruins /

UCLA Bruins

The heart and soul of these projections lives in a colorful, headache-inducing Excel spreadsheet, where I input a couple thousand numbers as data. 2014 went okay, 2015 was below average. In 2016, I’m back with a vengance, and more numbers than ever before. I will be submitting these projections to the Bracket Matrix to see how I stack up for the second consecutive year.

This year’s formula draws inspiration from the BCS, which gave teams a score using computer rankings and data from multiple polls. For the 3rd installment of my bracketology, I am incorporating RPI, strength of schedule, win-loss record, good wins, bad losses, the AP poll, and rankings and strength of schedule evaluations from KenPom, Sagarin ratings, and ESPN’s BPI.

Using these polls will hopefully serve as a substitute for the eye test. I tweak how much weight I put into each of these categories from week to week if something looks off (for example, if the Bruins had a .500 record and my formula had them in as a 9 seed while experts and common sense alike said that UCLA had no shot, I would change the formula so that a team’s win-loss record was a more significant factor). I will never, however, change a team’s score arbitrarily and by standards that differ to every other team I evaluate.

Before you go to the next slide to see the actual projections, keep in mind that I may not necessarily agree with what the formula tells me, and that projections are made as if today is the last day of the season. All data is accounted for through Monday’s games (so Xavier‘s loss on Tuesday was not taken into account, for example).

Alright, after 6 hours of data collecting and spreadsheet combing, I present to you the first bracketology of 2016.

Next: The Bracket