UCLA vs Kansas St in the Alamo Bowl

UCLA vs Kansas St in the Alamo Bowl, Jan 2, 2015, ESPN, 3:45 Pacific

For the 1st time in UCLA history, the Bruins have landed in the Alamo Bowl. Their opponent is Kansas State, a Big12 team that the Bruins have faced only twice in school history (the teams split a pair of games in 2009 and 2010). The rubber match in San Antonio has the makings of a competitive contest since both teams share a number of similarities heading into the game.

Consider that both UCLA and Kansas State:

finished the regular season at 8-3.
ended up 3rd in their respective conference standings.
have veteran quarterbacks playing in their last game in Brett Hundley and Jake Waters.
those quarterbacks threw up remarkably similar stats for the year:
- Hundley: 3019 Passing Yards, 70.4 Comp%, 21 Passing TD’s/ 5 Ints, 155 QB Rating with 548 Rushing Yards, 3.7 YPC and 8 Rushing TDs.
- Waters: 3163 Passing Yards, 66.2 Comp%, 20 Passing TD’s/ 6 Ints, 158 QB Rating with 479 Rushing Yards, 3.4 YPC, 8 Rushing TDs.
Both Head Coaches are well respected but have struggled winning in “Big Game” moments:
- Jim Mora has yet to beat Oregon or Stanford for a shot to win the Pac-12
- Bill Snyder is 0-11 lifetime against AP Top Ten Teams when his team is also ranked in the AP Top 10.
Both teams are coming off losses (UCLA’s regular season ended with a crushing loss to Stanford, and Kansas St lost to Baylor).

The Offenses

Brett Hundley isn’t the only QB playing his last college game. Jake Waters wants to finish on a high note. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports

The similarities between Kansas St and UCLA don’t stop at the quarterbacks. Both teams deploy versions of the spread offense, which means we will see plenty of option reads plays from both offenses looking to create 1 on 1 matchups on the edges of the field. However, the difference between the two groups lies in the focus points. Bruin fans are accustomed to seeing the ball distributed evenly, both in play selection and in whose hands the ball ends up in. Brett Hundley is the star of the show of course, but he is at his best when he spreads the ball around and then exploits big play opportunities with his feet as they present themselves. In gaining over 3,000 yards through the air this season, Hundley has 7 receivers with at least 20 catches and 9 with at least 10 catches. Kansas St has only 2 receivers with at least 20 catches and only 5 with more than 10. The main reason for this difference is the outstanding play of Kansas St receiver Tyler Lockett who has put together back to back seasons of 1200+ yards receiving. Lockett has a dangerous partner on the edge in WR Curry Sexton who needs only 45 yards to hit 1,000 receiving himself. If Lockett and Sexton can’t be contained, the Kansas State Offense won’t be stopped.

Perkins and Hundley look to dominate the WIldcats in the Alamo Bowl. Mandatory Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports

When it comes to running the ball, UCLA has been the more dominating team by far. Riding astride Paul Perkins, the Pac-12’s leading rusher with 1,381 yards, has been a steady and reliable weapon for the Bruins all year. As Hundley has ran for 548 yards himself, the Bruins rushing attack has been vital to controlling the pace of games and opening up big play opportunities through the air. Kansas St has not been nearly as successful on the ground as the Bruins. Jake Waters is the only Kansas St player to run the ball for over 100 yards in a game (he did it twice). However, the Wildcats have run the ball well enough to keep defenses honest.

The Defenses

UCLA and Kansas St also share similarities on the defensive side of the ball. Although the Wildcats are a base 4-3 team and the Bruins are supposed to be a 3-4 team, both squads want to keep the ball in front of them and avoid the big play with disciplined schemes and good tackling. Its no coincidence that Kansas St was #1 in the Big12 and UCLA was #2 in the Pac-12 (behind Stanford) in allowing the fewest plays of 2o+ yards. Both teams want to play “bend but don’t break” styles and creatively blitz situationally.

Special Teams

Speaking of extra possessions and points, special teams may very well dictate the winner of the Alamo Bowl. The Wildcats and Bruins both sport dangerous punt returners; Tyler Lockett has returned 2 punts for TDs, and Kansas St led the Big12 in punt return average in 2014. Ish Adams is the big play man for the Bruins, and although he has not officially returned a punt for a TD this year (he had a couple brought back due to penalties) opposing teams have kicked away from him all year. On the other side of the ball, UCLA was the best team in the Pac-12 against the punt (2.38 average return yards /0 TDs), while Kansas St was 2nd to last in the Big12 (12.56 average return yards/1 TD).

Nov 20, 2014; Morgantown, WV, USA; Kansas State Wildcats place kicker Matthew McCrane (16) reacts after kicking a field goal as West Virginia Mountaineers cornerback Ishmael Banks (34) is in the foreground in the fourth quarter. The Wildcats defeated the Mountaineers 26-20 at Milan Puskar Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports

Both teams kicking games will be important factors in the game , and both have strengths and weaknesses. For the Bruins, Ka’imi Fairbairn has made 16 of 20 FG attempts on the year, and has proven to be reliable under 40 yards and a circus anywhere past that distance. Fairbairn has done an excellent job in kicking touchbacks on kickoffs as he led the Pac-12 in Yards per Kickoff (64.31) and Touchback Percentage (62.5%). His Wildcat counterpart, Freshman All-American Matt McCrane won the starting job in the 4th game of the season and hasn’t looked back. He has missed only 1 kick since taking over and he has gone 5 for 5 on kicks over 40 yards (2/2 on 50+). Kansas St has not been as efficient on kickoffs as the Bruins; the Wildcats average just under 60 yards per kickoff, they have a Touchback Percentage of only 27.91% and they have kicked 2 balls out of bounds. As a result, if the game becomes field position battle, the Bruins will likely have better field position, but the Wildcats will be able to score from farther out on the field.

Prediction

UCLA Bruins /

UCLA Bruins

This years Alamo Bowl pits two very well matched teams against one another, and it should be great game to watch. If the game comes down to the wire, Kansas St has a distinct advantage with its FG kicker and veteran playmakers in Waters and Lockett. However, UCLA’s advantages lie in the strength of their running game, and Brett Hundley’s ability to get the whole team involved and then deliver his own daggers. On defense and special teams, the Bruins penchant for not giving up big plays should keep the game within their control.

Although Kansas St and UCLA have identical records, UCLA’s 9 wins have come in a better conference. The Wildcats beat up on lesser Big-12 opponents (the best of those: Texas, West Virginia and Oklahoma have been embarrassed in their own Bowls this week), and went 0-3 against their ranked opponents (getting blown out by Baylor and TCU). Although UCLA was beat soundly by Oregon and struggled against Stanford and Utah, the Bruins have quality wins against ranked Arizona, Arizona St, and USC teams (the Pac-12 has gone 3-0 so far this Bowl Season). In the end, UCLA’s stronger running game and more sound overall defense and special teams will carry the day.

Know Your Opponent: UCLA vs Kansas St in the Alamo Bowl

By Jake Merrifield | Dec 30, 2014