Let's take a look at where UCLA stands heading into the second week of February for seeding in the NCAA and Big Ten tournaments if they were to occur in early February.
First, let's explain the impact of the NET Rankings on where UCLA may be seeded in the NCAA tournament if it were to start today.
The NCAA Tournament Committee ranks men's basketball teams according to their NET ranking but it is not the only factor and/or ranking they use to seed every team that will be in the NCAA tournament.
How does NET set rankings? The NET rankings evaluate teams based on court play, schedule toughness, locations of competition, final score results, offensive and defensive efficiency, and the quality of their wins and losses. The objective is to rank teams more fairly and comprehensively than in past editions. However, it has flaws and is not a perfect ranking system for teams in the 2025 NCAA tournament.
The NET rankings of the home team and the neutral or visiting team define each clash into one of four quadrants. Usually starting in the first quadrant, success comes first, followed by the second, and so on. Quad one and even quad two wins are very beneficial for teams like UCLA regarding how high of a seed they receive for the upcoming NCAA tournament.
To choose the 68 teams vying for the NCAA Tournament, the Tournament Committee painstakingly examines conference titles, quad one and two victories, NET rankings, etc. Wins in Quadrant 1 and 2 significantly increase a team's chances of obtaining an at-large bid if a team like UCLA does not win the Big Ten tournament title and receives an automatic bid.
The committee considers player suspensions, injuries, and subjective assessments even as NET rankings are essential. For example, if Tyler Bilodeau were to get hurt in the Big Ten tournament and unable to play in the NCAA tournament, UCLA could drop one seed line.
Although the NET rankings are based on data, the results and seeding decisions are finally shaped by human judgment and bias, even if statistics form their foundation.
UCLA Tournament Resume as of 2/6/25
Overall Record: 16-7
UCLA stands among analytical/metric-based rankings (2/6/25): NET: #26, KenPom: #27, EvanMiya: #31, Barttorvik: #21, and BPI: #28
Quad One and Two wins: Washington (69-58), Arizona (57-54) in the Hall of Fame Rivalry, @ Oregon (73-71), Gonzaga (65-62) in the West Coast Hoops Showdown, Iowa (94-70), Wisconsin (85-83), @ Washington (65-60), Oregon (78-52), Michigan State (63-61).
Loses this season: New Mexico (64-72) on a neutral court, North Carolina (74-74) in the CBS Sports Classic, @ Nebraska (58-66), Michigan (75-94), @ Maryland (61-79), and @ Rutgers (68-75).
Here is a look at where the Bruins stand as they climb the Big Ten standings, hoping to secure a top-four seed for the B1G tournament.
The Big Ten will have fifteen teams in their conference tournament this year, showcasing the depth of competition within the conference, which boasts eighteen teams for the first time. The conference tournament is closed to the teams that finish at the bottom of the standings in places 16 through 18. If the tournament were to start today, Washington, Penn State, and Minnesota would not be in the B1G tournament. The additions of UCLA, USC, Oregon, and Washington are why the Big Ten decided not to include all eighteen teams in their tournament this year. The change is significant, as in previous years, all B1G teams participated in the conference tournament.
On March 12, the B1G tournament kicks off with three first-round games. The tournament's finals are set for March 16. Here is how the seeding works for this year's Big Ten tournament. The top nine seeds in the conference tournament will bypass the first round of games. This means that the 15 through 11 seeds will play in the first round, and the winners of the three first-round games will advance to the second round. They advance straight to the second round. In the second round, the 5th, 6th, and 7th-seeded teams will play the winners of the first-round games.
The top four seeds enjoy a bye in the first two rounds, allowing them to advance directly to the quarterfinals. The minimum goal is UCLA getting a top-four seed, with the hope of still contending to win the Big Ten regular-season title still in play.
Where UCLA stands in the Big Ten regular season race.
Big Ten Record: 8-4
Teams ahead of them in the standings (2/27/25): Purdue (10-2), Michigan State (9-2), and Michigan (9-2)
Those tied or one game back of them: Wisconsin (8-4) and Maryland (7-4) Big Ten teams they defeated this season: Washington (69-58), @ Oregon (73-71), Iowa (94-70), Wisconsin (85-83), @ Washington (65-60), @USC (82-76), Oregon (78-52), and Michigan State (63-61).
Losses in Big Ten play this season: @ Nebraska (58-66), Michigan (75-94), @ Maryland (61-79), and @ Rutgers (68-75).
UCLA plays Penn State at home, Illinois and Indiana on the road, and Minnesota and Ohio State at home. The Bruins finish the regular season on the road against Purdue and Northwestern, and their regular season finale is against USC. UCLA should defeat Penn State, Minnesota, and Northwestern. The games they should win are Ohio State and USC, but they will be considered toss-up games. A loss is predicted at Purdue, but the games that will determine if the Bruins can win the Big Ten regular season title will be the games on the road against Illinois and Indiana.
What are the predictions as of today for where UCLA will be at in March?
UCLA will be a top-four seed in the Big Ten tournament and no lower than a six seed for the NCAA tournament. The Bruins' prediction as of now is that UCLA will finish in third place in the Big Ten regular season standings and will be a four-seed in the NCAA tournament.
If UCLA can win two of their four remaining road games and only lose one remaining home game, the Bruins can finish in second place in the Big Ten standings. If the Bruins were to get some quad one and two wins over Illinois and Ohio State, for example, they could easily earn a three seed for the NCAA tournament.