The not impossible path for UCLA to make the Final Four

Here is the not impossible path of UCLA making it to the Final Four of the 2025 NCAA Tournament.

The first thing that must happen is UCLA defeating Utah State in the round of 64. No. 7 seeds have won approximately 60% of the time against No. 10 seeds throughout the history of the NCAA Tournament. Since 2022, the No. 10 seed has only defeated the No. 7 seed once in the last three tournaments. The No. 10 seed has won 75% of the past three years, so UCLA is in good shape to win their first game of the tournament based on the numbers and recent success of the No. 7 seeds.

Here is where UCLA needs to have luck on their side to have the easiest path to a Final Four appearance in this tournament.

11 No. 15 seeds have defeated No. 2 seeds throughout the history of the NCAA Tournament. However, when the tournament expanded in 1985, the No. 2 seeds have a 145-11 record against the No. 15 seeds. In 2012, the NCAA Tournament saw two No. 15 seeds defeat No. 2 seeds, so No. 15 seed Wofford may defeat No. 2 seed Tennessee in an upset that gives UCLA a better opportunity to advance in the NCAA tournament. ESPN is giving Wofford a 4.3% of defeating Tennessee, and there are even some who are predicting an upset in this game

Now is where UCLA would defeat Wofford in the round of 32 to advance to the Sweet Sixteen as they did from 2021 to 2023.

Here then, the impossible route to the Elite Eight would have UCLA playing another double-digit seed in their Sweet Sixteen matchup.

In an unlikely but not impossible matchup, UCLA would play No. 14 seed Troy in the Sweet Sixteen. The Trojans of Troy would have to defeat No. 3 seed Kentucky, who last year was upset by No. 15 seed Oakland last year. Then they would likely play No. 6 seed Illinois, who, besides their Elite Eight run in 2024, had not made the Sweet Sixteen before that going back to 2005. Troy would then defeat Illinois to play UCLA in the Sweet Sixteen.

The Elite matchup is not one that not many are predicting but not impossible to imagine it actually taking place.

This predicted match-up with UCLA is actually not as far-fetched as some may believe. Multiple media outlets are predicting the No. 12 McNeese Cowboys will be a Cinderella team and that they can make a deep run in this tournament. If the Cowboys defeat Clemson and then Purdue and pull off possibly the biggest upset of the tournament by beating No. 1 Houston, they would play UCLA in the Elite Eight, which is highly unlikely but not impossible.

Yes, it is a long shot, but it is March Madness, and upsets happen. people thought a No. 16 seed would never lose to a No. 1 seed, and we now have had two No. 16 seeds defeat No. 1 seeds, so the impossible is not impossible in the NCAA Tournament. Time will tell, but UCLA can make it to their first Final Four since they went on an unlikely run in 2021 when they played in the play-in-game and won five games to make it to the Final Four that year.