A guide to Mid-Major teams chances of winning in the NCAA Tournament

Here are two teams that won both their conference tournament and regular season conference title and are looking to pull off a first-round upset in the 2024 NCAA Tournament.

Were they Conference Tournament Champions: Yes, they won the Horizon League conference tournament.
Where they finished in the regular season standings for their conference: They finished in first place in the Horizon League conference this season.
Record this Season: 23-11
Their record against teams from the Power Five conferences this season: 0-3

Best victories this season: @ Xavier, @ Youngstown State, @ Wright State, @ Purdue Fort Wayne, Loyola Marymount (neutral court), Youngstown State, Purdue Fort Wayne, and Northern Kentucky
Quad 1 and 2 Losses: @ Ohio State, @ Illinois, @ Michigan State, @ Dayton, @ Northern Kentucky, Drake (neutral court), Toledo, and Purdue Fort Wayne

NET Ranking: 126
KenPom Ranking: 137
College Basketball Power Index Ranking: 130
Barttorvik Ranking: 135

Quadrant 1 Record: 1-5
Quadrant 2 Record: 1-0
Quadrant 3 Record: 7-6

NCAA Tournament: As a No. 14 seed they play No. 3 seed Kentucky. The likelihood of them pulling off the upset is at 13.3%.

Were they Conference Tournament Champions: Yes, they defeated Lehigh in the finals of the Patriot League conference tournament.
Where they finished in the regular season standings for their conference: They finished in first place in the Patriot League conference this season.
Record this Season: 25-9
Their record against teams from the Power Five conferences this season: 0-3

Best victories this season: @ Vermont, Gardner-Webb (neutral court), Weber State (neutral court), and Brown
Quad 1 and 2 Losses: @ Syracuse, @ Arizona, @ Illinois, @ Iona, @ Cornell, Yale (neutral court), and Harvard

NET Ranking: 125
KenPom Ranking: 145
College Basketball Power Index Ranking: 111
Barttorvik Ranking: 159

Quadrant 1 Record: 0-2
Quadrant 2 Record: 1-3
Quadrant 3 Record: 2-1

NCAA Tournament: As a No. 14 seed, they play No. 3 seed Baylor. The probability of them winning their first road game is at 10.3%.