A look at the ways UCLA can win or lose against Michigan State in a very important game for both teams.
Michigan State's passing game can be good or not so good and here is why.
Aidan Chiles, for the most part, has had a good season. However, his play against Nebraska is what the Bruins' defense is hoping for, especially regarding his passing game. He was 9 for 23 for only 85 yards with two interceptions and no touchdowns. In his four previous games this season, he has thrown for nine touchdowns and only one interception, with his best game being against Boston College for 231 yards with no interceptions. His completion percentage is contrastingly better on his home field of Spartan Stadium, and he is motivated to have a bounce-back game in the Spartans' homecoming game against the Bruins.
The Spartans' wide receivers are arguably the strongest unit on the team. The issue, though, is that they have either not been targeted as often as they should, and that when they have, there have been some inaccurate throws thrown their way. For example, Nick Marsh only has 263 yards in receptions through five games, even though he is projected to be a future NFL draft pick. He and Omari Kelly each have 22 catches this season, which seems low, as many Spartans fans are puzzled as to why they don't have more receptions this season. If Michigan State doesn't attempt to utilize its passing game against the Bruins, it would greatly benefit UCLA's chances of defeating the Spartans.
Can UCLA minimize the impact of the Spartans' running game and limit Michigan State's time of possession is the question.
If Michigan State's coaching staff remains stubborn and tries to run the ball like they did against Nebraska, Youngstown State, and Western Michigan, it will only benefit UCLA's chances of winning the game. The Spartans' running backs and offensive line are not awful and, on paper better units than last season, but in reality, as witnessed in their game against the Cornhuskers, the run game is not the strength of their offense. Their best running back is Makhi Frazier, who has been inconsistent, but when he gets in a groove, he is an efficient running back for the Spartans. Believe it or not, when Michigan State needs to get its ground game going, Chiles makes plays with his feet to get the chains moving. For example, in the Spartans' two touchdown drives against Nebraska in the third quarter, they scored twice because of Chiles' ability to run the ball. UCLA needs to limit his running playmaking abilities and hope due to his not being able to play the whole game against Nebraska because of some hits he took in that game that the Spartans' coaching staff will advise him to run so much in their game against UCLA.
Michigan State's offense line has some injuries and that has not helped them protect Chiles in the passing game or helped the Spartans be able to run the ball in consistent matter. Left tackle Stanton and guard Luka Vincic are the two main offensive linemen who are out and even though they technically have more depth and experience this season, they are not considered a strenghth for the Spartans this season. UCLA's defense has played much better in Big Ten play then in non-conference play and they will have opportunities to put pressure on Chiles and contain the Spartans run game.
UCLA's chances of winning depend on which Michigan State coaching philosophy shows in this game.
Michigan State fans are not thrilled with the coaching staff as the Spartans have lost two in a row. Even the overtime win against Boston College doesn't look like a quality win as the Eagles are winless against FBS competition this season. If Jonathan Smith were to lose to UCLA, more then the majority of Michigan State fans would want their new athletic director J Batt to do something similar to what UCLA did when they relievied DeShaun Foster who was also in his second year as head coach of his head coaching duties. This could be bad for the Bruins as Smith and his coaching staff will be putting forth the best coaching plan they can or it could be good for UCLA as they can take advantage of the uncertainity of the Spartans coaching situation.
In general, UCLA can use the momentum of their win against Penn State to get a road victory similar to what they did last season when they played an early game on the road against Rutgers. However, now that Michigan State has game film on the new look UCLA offense and because of the Bruins upset win over previous No. 7 ranked Penn State, the element of surprise that UCLA had going into their game against the Nittany Lions is no longer there. Either way, UCLA has a chance to win this game to get their second win of the season.