UCLA Football: What needs to happen to go to Pac-12 Championship game

Multiple things must go UCLA’s way to make it to the Pac-12 championship game but it is still a decent possibility.

First, we have to look specifically at the Pac-12 tiebreakers to see what UCLA needs to happen to qualify for the championship game.

2023 Football tiebreak language via the Pac-12

"Two-Team TieIf two teams are tied for first place both teams will participate in the championship game and the winner of the head-to-head will be the #1 seed.Win percentage against the next highest placed common opponent in the standings (based on record in all games played within the Conference), proceeding through the standings. When arriving at another group of tied teams while comparing records, use each team’s win percentage against the collective tied teams as a group (before that group’s tie-breaking procedure) rather than the performance against individual tied teams.Win percentage against all common conference opponents"

If it is a three or even four-way tie, here also are the tiebreaker rules written specifically by the Pac-12 conference.

"Multiple-Team TiesIn the event of a tie between more than two teams, the following procedures will be used. After one team has an advantage and is “seeded”, all remaining teams in the multiple-team tie-breaker will repeat the multiple-team tie-breaking procedure. If at any point the multiple-team tie is reduced to two teams, the two-team tie-breaking procedure will be applied.Head-to-head (best cumulative win percentage in games among the tied teams). If not every tied team has played each other, go to step 2.Win percentage against all common conference opponents (must be common among all teams involved in the tie)Record against the next highest placed common opponent in the standings (based on record in all games played within the conference), proceeding through the standings."

No. 1

UCLA has to win their four last regular season games

The Bruins have no room for error as they lost two conference games already to Utah and Oregon State. They must go on the road this upcoming weekend and defeat an improved Arizona team and then defeat Arizona State at home. Then they must defeat two in-state rivals to end conference regular season play.

In the last two weeks of the season, the Bruins play UCS and then host Cal to end Pac-12 regular season play. UCLA needs to go 4-0 if there is any legitimate chance that they will make the Pac-12 Conference championship game and hope Oregon loses at least one game moving forward in these next couple of weeks.

No. 2

They need to not have two Pac-12 teams to only have one conference loss.

Currently, Washington is undefeated and has the tiebreaker with Oregon having beaten them earlier this season. Oregon at this time has only one loss and they have the tiebreaker with Utah having defeated them earlier this year. USC is the other team in the Pac-12 that has one loss but UCLA would have the tiebreaker with them if they were to defeat them later in the season. The Bruins need some upsets to occur to give them an opportunity to play in the conference championship game.

No. 3

UCLA needs two teams to lose at least one if not two more conference games.

The other Pac-12 teams with two losses that have the tiebreaker with UCLA are Utah and Oregon State who need to lose one more game this season to even give the Bruins the possibility to make it to the Pac-12 championship game. It is more likely Oregon State and Utah lose another conference game than Washington and Oregon.

No. 4

These game results if they were to happen would greatly increase UCLA’s chances of making it to the Pac-12 championship game.

Week 10

Highly unlikely but favorable outcomes for UCLA if it were to happen.

Arizona State defeats Utah and Cal upsets Oregon.

Somewhat possible and would be beneficial for the Bruins if it were to occur.

Colorado defeats Oregon State and Washington beats USC.

Most likely to happen for UCLA to have a chance at going to the Pac-12 Championship game.

UCLA defeats Arizona.

Week 11

Highly unlikely but favorable outcomes for UCLA if it were to happen.

Stanford upsets Oregon State and Colorado defeats Arizona.

Somewhat possible and would be beneficial for the Bruins if it were to occur.

USC defeats Oregon and Utah upsets Washington

Most likely to happen for UCLA to have a chance at going to the Pac-12 Championship game.

UCLA defeats Arizona State.

Week 12

Highly unlikely but favorable outcomes for UCLA if it were to happen.

Oregon State defeats Washington and Arizona State upsets Oregon.

Somewhat possible and would be beneficial for the Bruins if it were to occur.

Arizona defeats Utah

Most likely to happen for UCLA to have a chance at going to the Pac-12 Championship game.

UCLA defeats USC.

Week 13

Highly unlikely but favorable outcomes for UCLA if it were to happen.

Washington State upsets Washington, Arizona State beats Arizona, and Colorado defeats Utah.

Somewhat possible and would be beneficial for the Bruins if it were to occur.

Oregon State defeats Oregon.

Most likely to happen for UCLA to have a chance at going to the Pac-12 Championship game.

UCLA defeats Cal.

If most of this were to occur and the Bruins win their last four regular-season games, UCLA would play Washington in the Pac-12 championship game.

Both the Bruins and Huskies would have two losses in Pac-12 play. Also, the Huskies could go undefeated at 12-0 and the Bruins would have to win the tiebreaker with Oregon more than likely to have the opportunity to play in the conference championship game.

Regardless of what the other Pac-12 teams do, UCLA has to win their next four games. Even if the Bruins win their last four games of Pac-12 play, Washington can win out and Oregon could not lose another game and both of those two teams would play each other at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas.

Regardless of what happens with Washington and Oregon over these next four weeks, Bruins fans should cheer on UCLA and hope that by winning their last four regular season games, it will be enough for them to qualify to play the last Pac-12 conference championship game.