UCLA Football: Play call/outcome analysis from the Utah game

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PASADENA, CA – OCTOBER 26: Chip Kelly head coach UCLA Bruins during a fourth quarter time out against Utah Utes at the Rose Bowl on October 26, 2018 in Pasadena, California. (Photo by John McCoy/Getty Images) /

Overall Summary

The biggest single surprise difference between eye test results and looking through the data is the overall run-pass balance. We all came away thinking they had to bail on the run game in the 2nd half because of the scoreboard deficit. It turns out that the run-pass balance was nearly identical between the two halves (running only 30% of the time, a season-low); Chip’s plan was to not challenge that elite Utah run defense from the beginning. The 1st half pass success rate (29%) was bad because of drops, the 2nd half pass success rate was bad because of desperation.

The 1st half pass success rate (29%) was bad because of drops, the 2nd half pass success rate was bad because of desperation.

Check-with-me lost its huge run tendency this week and was still very successful outlier at 53% (in a game with an incredibly bad overall success rate of 33%). They seemed to have a fresh approach to what was being changed in the checks, I didn’t note them routinely flipping the RB after checks (as was the norm the last couple weeks). I wonder if Chip is tempted to go full-time Check-with-me, it has been consistently better than not checking. Pre Snap Motion (only 12 times) and Play Faking (only 6 times) on pass plays is still very rare. Play faking resulted in the best YPP on successes this week, but the sample size is particularly small. They tend to pass when using Pre Snap Motion (67% passes).

UCLA was successful on both of their attempted 4th down run plays. I’m still thrilled that we have a head coach that understands the math and is not afraid of failing on 4th down.

While Arizona let UCLA off the hook on passing downs a lot last week, Utah’s defense punished UCLA for falling behind (24% success rate on passing downs). Chip has run a lot on passing downs in recent weeks, but not this week (76% pass plays on passing downs).

I’ve been suggesting UCLA could get positive results from using detached TEs more, and this was true this week as they did use it quite a bit more than usual (28 of 66 snaps). The offense was rewarded with 50% run success rate and a slightly above same game baseline with 35% pass success rate when TEs were flexed wide. All those non-attached TE plays came with TEs on the field, as they never used any personnel that didn’t include TEs.

Somewhere out there is a flawless game plan with 100% Check-with-me, flexed tight ends, and pre-snap motion every time.