Go Joe Bruin continues our early 2018 previews with a look at UCLA football’s Pac-12 opener on the road against the Colorado Buffaloes.
After starting the season at 2-1, the UCLA football team begins Pac-12 play with a trip to Boulder under Friday night lights. Under Chip Kelly, UCLA will own the conference sooner rather than later but year one will bring some struggles as the team adjusts to their new coach. I preview the matchup with Colorado, tell you what to expect from the Buffaloes and make a very early prediction on how the game will go.
Related: UCLA Football Early 2018 Schedule Preview- Cincinnati / Oklahoma / Fresno State
Colorado Buffaloes
Head Coach: Mike MacIntyre
2017 Record: 5-7
2017-18 Bowl Game: None
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What: UCLA Bruins vs. Colorado Buffaloes
Where: Folsom Field, Boulder, CO
When: Friday, September 28
Two years ago, Colorado won ten games, went 8-1 in conference and clinched the Pac-12 South Division. MacIntyre was rewarded with multiple national coach of the year awards and appeared to have turned things around. Then things went south (sorry). The coach was lucky to retain his job after failing to report an allegation of domestic abuse leveled against one of his assistant coaches. On the field, things were just as bleak as the team sputtered and followed up a first place season with a last place one.
Colorado’s Five-Year Win Trend
- 2017 – ★★★★★☆☆☆☆☆☆☆ 5-7
- 2016 – ★★★★★★★★★★☆☆☆☆ 10-4
- 2015 – ★★★★☆☆☆☆☆☆☆☆☆ 4-9
- 2014- ★★☆☆☆☆☆☆☆☆☆☆ 2-10
- 2013 – ★★★★☆☆☆☆☆☆☆☆ 4-8
The Buffaloes and their fans hope that 2018 will be better. Colorado will be led by star QB Steven Montez who had a good 2017 and has 15 starts under his belt. He will be a handful for UCLA’s defense.
Colorado Offense
Despite having one of the best passing offenses and quarterbacks in the Pac-12 in 2017, Colorado struggled to score points. Things could be worse this season as the Buffaloes have to replace dynamic receiver Shay Fields and leading rusher Phillip Lindsay. Lindsay was especially important in 2017 as he rushed for 1,474 yards and averaged 25 carries per game. He also scored 15 touchdowns and racked up 1,731 yards from scrimmage. A lot will be asked of Montez in 2018 and he should be up to the task. In 2017, he completed 60% of his passes for 2,975 yards and accounted for 22 touchdowns.
Montez has some weapons to work with including a pair of 6’3” senior wide receivers in Juwan Winfree and Kabion Ento. Winfree is the leading returning receiver and while his numbers don’t stand out, he has shown flashes. He put together a highlight reel game against USC in 2017 with a line of 5 receptions for 163 yards and two touchdowns. Rounding out the receiver group are sophomores Laviska Shenault, Jr. and K.D. Nixon. Shenault is explosive and had a 42-yard reception against UCLA football as a freshman. Montez and this crew will put a lot of pressure on UCLA football’s secondary.
Colorado 2017 Offensive Stats
| Total Offense | Passing Offense | Rushing Offense | Scoring Offense |
|---|---|---|---|
| 418.9 (7th) | 260.4 (4th) | 158.5 (8th) | 26.4 (11th) |
( ) – denotes ranking in the TEAM CONFERENCE
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To patch up the Lindsay-sized hole on their roster, Colorado will likely take a running back by committee approach. Graduate transfer Travon McMillian rushed for over 2,000 yards at Virginia Tech and could handle starting duties. Or redshirt freshman Alex Fontenot might get the nod over him. Senior Kyle Evans returns from injury and will be a factor as well. All of this is moot if Colorado cannot find three new starters to fill the void on their offensive line left by the departures of three linemen from the 2017 team. If UCLA plays the kind of aggressive defense that Chip Kelly favors, then they should find success against an inexperienced line like this one.
Colorado Defense
The biggest culprit for Colorado’s drop from first to last in 2017 was the performance of the defense. The Buffaloes had to replace eight players on that side of the ball including three defensive backs. In addition, the group was adjusting to a new defensive coordinator. All of this proved to be a tall task and the unit never found its footing. This was most apparent in their performance against the run. Colorado allowed teams to rush for an average of 208.3 yards per game.
Colorado’s strength on this side of the ball will be at linebacker. Drew Lewis and Rick Gamboa return for their senior years. Both players led the Buffaloes in tackles from their inside linebacker spots in 2017. Lewis racked up 94 tackles and Gamboa contributed 90 tackles. With one year in Colorado’s 3-4 defensive system under their belts, both players will be comfortable and play even faster. Against UCLA, they will be going against inexperienced quarterback Devon Modster or true freshman Dorian Thompson-Robinson. The Colorado coaching staff will likely disguise coverages to take advantage of this inexperience. Lewis and Gamboa will be in the middle of all of it.
Colorado 2017 Defensive Stats
| Total Defense | Passing Defense | Rushing Defense | Scoring Defense |
|---|---|---|---|
| 450.8 (8th) | 242.6 (9th) | 208.3 (10th) | 28.2 (6th) |
( ) – denotes ranking in the TEAM CONFERENCE
For the first time in three years, Colorado’s secondary will not be their biggest strength on defense. Talented cornerback Isaiah Oliver was drafted by the Atlanta Falcons in the second round of the NFL draft. Redshirt sophomore Trey Udoffia will be stepping into his spot. Whether he is ready for this role remains to be seen. Sophomore Dante Wigley will man the other corner spot but is a smaller corner. Safety Evan Worthington is talented though and plays both the run and pass very well. It will be interesting to see whether Chip Kelly creates a game plan to take advantage through the air or whether UCLA football focuses on running the ball in this matchup.
Colorado Special Teams
Colorado returns every key player on special teams. Place kicker James Stefanou made 17 of his 22 field goal attempts in 2017. He was also a Lou Groza award semi-finalist. Senior punter Alex Kinney averaged nearly 44 yards per kick. Ronnie Blackmon returned punts and averaged eight yards per return. He was joined on kickoffs by Nixon who averaged a respectable 23.7 yards per return. Nixon is explosive and I expect him to take over punt returning duties from Blackmon in 2018.
Final Analysis
Colorado will be tough on offense. Montez is a good quarterback and should improve in 2018. However, UCLA football has a strong secondary and I expect UCLA to bring pressure to take advantage of an inexperienced Colorado offensive line. The game will hinge on whether UCLA can run the ball well enough to create a balance between run and pass. In 2017, the Bruins were unable to do that and leaned on Josh Rosen’s brilliance to beat Colorado. This year, predictability will not work. Based on Chip Kelly’s history, I am willing to bet that UCLA will find a way to run the ball enough to be unpredictable. If they are able to do that, then I expect a close UCLA victory.
Next: UCLA Football: 10 bold predictions for the 2018 season
Prediction
UCLA 27 – Colorado 17