Go Joe Bruin continues its early 2018 previews with a look at UCLA football’s match up against the Fresno State Bulldogs in week 3.
After two games, the Bruins will have hopefully found their groove on offense. We will know by now who is quarterbacking Kelly’s offense and he might have even found a running back he can trust. What I know for sure is he’ll need to have his offense working well against a Fresno State team that features a ferocious defense.
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Fresno State:
Head Coach: Jeff Tedford (1st year, 10-4)
2017 Record:10-4, Mountain West 7-1 (1st Place, West Division)
2017-18 Bowl Game: 33-27 victory versus Houston in Hawaii Bowl
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What: Fresno State Bulldogs at UCLA Bruins
Where: Rose Bowl, Pasadena, CA
When: Saturday, Sept. 15
Just two seasons ago, the Fresno State Bulldogs were a horrific 1-11 with their lone win coming against the Hornets of Sacramento State. But former longtime Cal Coach Jeff Tedford came in and in only one year led the Bulldogs to a ten win season and a spot in the Mountain West Championship game. With more than half of his starters returning from last year’s team, Fresno State looks to make another strong run for the Mountain West Championship and will be a formidable opponent for the Bruins.
Fresno State Five-Year Win Trend
- 2017: ★★★★★★★★★★☆☆☆☆10-4
- 2016: ★☆☆☆☆☆☆☆☆☆☆☆ 1-11
- 2015: ★★★☆☆☆☆☆☆☆☆☆ 3-9
- 2014: ★★★★★★☆☆☆☆☆☆☆☆ 6-8
- 2013: ★★★★★★★★★★★☆☆ 11-2
The last time Fresno State had a double-digit win season, they were not able to follow it up with another successful campaign. This year may be different as the Bulldogs are led by a strong defense and a veteran coach in Jeff Tedford.
Fresno State Offense
The Bulldogs are coming off a year where they struggled to put points on the board but Jeff Tedford may have at least found a reliable quarterback. After coming over from Oregon State as a graduate transfer last year (with two years of eligibility remaining), Marcus McMaryion started every Mountain West Conference game for the Bulldogs. His 14 touchdowns and 62.1 completion percentage along with his 9-2 record gives Tedford a bright light on the offensive side of the ball.
Fresno State 2017 Offensive Stats
| Total Offense | Passing Offense | Rushing Offense | Scoring Offense |
|---|---|---|---|
| 392.9 (9th) | 237.9 (4th) | 155.0 (8th) | 27.1 (8th) |
( ) – denotes ranking in the Mountain West
The two main targets for McMaryion will be KeeSean Johnson and Jamire Jordan. Johnson returns as Fresno State’s leading receiver racking up 1,013 yards on 77 catches. Jordan, an undersized wide receiver listed at 5’11”, was 12th in the nation last season in yards per catch at 20.8 yards per reception.
Fresno State also returns their top four rushers including McMaryion’s 300 yards.
Sophomore Jordan Mims should again see the majority of carries. Last year he lead the team with 622 rushing yards to go with six touchdowns. The Bulldogs’ top four rushers accounted for 21 touchdowns; a balanced attack to go with Fresno State’s 19 passing touchdowns.
With an additional year of experience for the running backs and returning three starting offensive linemen, the Bulldogs’ offense should be able to move the ball more efficiently and ultimately score more points.
Stat to Watch: 33.14% – Fresno State’s third down conversion percentage in 2017
The Bulldogs’ offense had a difficult time staying on the field last year converting barely a third of their third down opportunities. If Coach Tedford can find a way to bump that percentage closer to a more respectable 40%, Fresno State could have an offense as feared as their defense.
Fresno State Defense
The defense last year for Fresno State was a huge improvement from past years. Their run defense was not only first in the Mountain West but 11th in the nation. Scoring on Tedford’s defense was difficult for teams, holding three conference opponents to single digits.
Fresno State 2017 Defensive Stats
| Total Defense | Passing Defense | Rushing Defense | Scoring Defense |
|---|---|---|---|
| 320.6 (2nd) | 207.1 (5th) | 113.4 (1st) | 17.9 (2nd) |
( ) – denotes ranking in the Mountain West
Returning linebackers Jeffrey Allison (126 total tackles) and George Helmuth (88 tackles, 4 sacks) lead a defense that also ranked in the top 15 nationally in scoring and total defense. Senior James Bailey (67 tackles) rounds out a linebacking core that returns three starters.
Along with Allison and Helmuth, Fresno State also return both starting cornerbacks and both starting safeties. Junior cornerback Jaron Bryant led the Bulldogs with four interceptions last year. Safties Juju Hughes and Mike Bell, both juniors, combined for 148 tackles last season including 10 for loss.
If the Bulldogs’ defense does have a weakness, it may be their defensive line. With no starters returning, players like senior Emeka Ndoh (8 tackles, 4 sacks) will have to step up at defensive end to continue Fresno State’s defensive attack.
We all remember how agonizing it was to watch UCLA run the ball last year. Against a rushing defense like Fresno State, the Bruins’ running backs, whether it be Soso Jamabo, Bolu Olorunfunmi, or someone else, will have trouble finding any holes to run through. But if they do, a veteran linebacking crew will be waiting to bring them down. When Chip Kelly turns to the air, Fresno State’s experienced secondary will be waiting. These two factors will make putting points on the board difficult for UCLA.
Fresno State Special Teams
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The only major loss for Fresno State on special teams is kicker Jimmy Camacho. With his loss he takes his 25 made field goals (best in the Mountain West) and near perfection (41/42) on extra points. Replacing him should be redshirt freshman Asa Fuller who has yet to see any game action.
Dejonte O’Neal should continue as the kick returner after returning a team high 18 kickoffs for 354 yards last season. O’Neal also returned punts but may split time with sophomore Ronnie Rivers who returned eight punts last year.
Blake Cusick comes back as the top punter for Fresno State. His 42.5 yards per punt last year was fourth best in the Mountain West.
Final Analysis
Fresno State will again be tough on the defensive side of the ball. With their starting linebackers and secondary returning to a defense that ranked in the top 15 last year, UCLA will have to fight and scratch for every yard.
If this was the Bruins’ first game of the year, I would be really worried about UCLA and their newly installed offense. But since this is game three, I’m just regular worried. The Bruins should have a sense of what they want to do on offense and Chip Kelly’s quick firing offense should fluster the Bulldogs just enough.
I don’t see this being a high scoring game but I think UCLA will have the talent to pull out a victory. When the season is over, the Bruins will look back at this game and see it as one of their best wins against a very talented Fresno State team.
Next: UCLA Football: 10 bold predictions for the 2018 season
Prediction
UCLA 21 – Fresno State 17