Go Joe Bruin begins the early 2018 schedule previews with a look at UCLA football’s first opponent in the Chip Kelly era, the Cincinnati Bearcats.
On Saturday, September 1, the UCLA Football team will have a new look, a new feel and a new coach leading the way. On that day, the Bruins begin the Chip Kelly era. Though it is unknown what exactly the coach will do to evolve his offense, we project that it will be an extension of the what he did at Oregon from 2009-12.
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Whatever it is, from the zone read/RPO offense to the “aggressive” defense, it is all going to have to start somewhere and on that first Saturday in September, we will see what Kelly and Co. bring when they take on the Cincinnati Bearcats.
Cincinnati Bearcats
Head Coach: Luke Fickell (2nd year, 4-8)
2017 Record: 4-8, 2-6 American Athletic (4th place, East Division)
2017-18 Bowl Game: N/A
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What: UCLA Bruins vs. Cincinnati Bearcats
Where: Rose Bowl, Pasadena, CA
When: Saturday, Sept. 1
This is going be an interesting matchup for several reasons. UCLA fans will get to see their new coach in action and Cincinnati fans will get to see their coach’s second act. Though things sputtered a bit in Fickell’s first season, the Bearcats are expected to improve, if only slightly.
Not only would Fickell’s team have one season under his tutelage, helping out overall chemistry, but recruiting has been improving as well. Though Fickell won’t immediately see the benefits of those for some time, right now he has to focus on getting this program back on track.
Cincinnati’s Five-Year Win Trend
- 2017 – ★★★★☆☆☆☆☆☆☆☆
- 2016 – ★★★★☆☆☆☆☆☆☆☆
- 2015 – ★★★★★★★☆☆☆☆☆☆
- 2014- ★★★★★★★★★☆☆☆☆
- 2013 – ★★★★★★★★★☆☆☆☆
Though Cincinnati looks to have a more positive outlook in 2018, it is going to be a rough start as they run into the up-and-coming Bruins.
Though UCLA doesn’t have everything figure out either. If Cincinnati can exploit the Bruins’ weaknesses, they might have a shot, but it will not be easy.
Cincinnati Offense
Cincinnati is a team that is still fitting into their system. The Bearcats’ first season under the guidance of Luke Fickell produced a 4-8 record, which isn’t horrible considering what little the new coach had to work with. There were both improvements and regressions, but nothing out of the ordinary, especially for a team in major transition.
As most teams do, Cincinnati seemed to start meshing toward the end of the season. After a five-game midseason losing streak, the Bearcats finished 2-2 in their last four games with a 22-21 win over UCONN in their season finale.
Cincinnati 2017 Offensive Stats
| Total Offense | Passing Offense | Rushing Offense | Scoring Offense |
|---|---|---|---|
| 351.8 (12th) | 216.4 (9th) | 135.3 (11th) | 20.9 (12th) |
( ) – denotes ranking in the American Athletic Conference
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Though there is progress, it still doesn’t take away from the fact that they did not exactly strike fear into the hearts of their opponents. They were near the bottom of every major team stat in their conference last season and that could continue to be an issue in 2018.
Cincinnati loses four linemen, leaving Garret Campbell and Kyle Trout as the only experienced players on the line. That is not going to help with consistency, but if the Bearcats can overcome that, they could be successful at the glamour spots.
Cincy returns starters QB Hayden Moore, RB Gerrid Doak, and WR Kahlil Lewis, so there is something to build off of. Despite the ups and downs, Moore put up his best stats of his career with 2,562 passing yards and 20 touchdowns. He also had 9 interceptions and 15 sacks, both of which were improvements from the previous season.
Though Cincinnati should be a lot more comfortable with their offense, they are going to be seriously tested by the Bruins’ defensive front. Though UCLA is thin in the LB group, they have several talented players that can inflict the aggression and “violence” the offensive coaches are requiring.
And if the Bearcats try to air it out, they will be met by one of the best secondaries, in the Pac-12 (and quite possibly the nation) as CB Nate Meadors, CB Darnay Holmes and S Adrius Pickett patrol the skies.
Cincinnati Defense
Cincinnati might have had a hell of a time getting their offense going, but their defense remains competitive. Unfortunately, they had to endure a lot as they were on the field, on average, just over five minutes longer than the offense.
UCLA fans know that all too well. If your offense cannot control tempo and the time of possession, then your defense, no matter how good, is going to get gassed.
Cincinnati 2017 Defensive Stats
| Total Defense | Passing Defense | Rushing Defense | Scoring Defense |
|---|---|---|---|
| 428.5 (6th) | 236.2 (5th) | 192.4 (8th) | 31.8 (7th) |
( ) – denotes ranking in the American Athletic Conference
Still, what they put out on the field helped them in several games last season and that is something the defense can build on, especially with several players returning in 2018.
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On the line, Marquise Copeland and Kevin Mouhon are big guys that can get around blocks and penetrate the gaps. Last season, they combined for 126 total tackles, 15 tackles for a loss and 5.5 sacks. In the linebacking unit, Perry Young looks to take on a leadership role in both the locker room and the field. Last season, as a sophomore, he had 101 total tackles (2nd on the team), nine of which went for a loss (1st on the team). He also added three pass breakups, one fumble recovery and one forced fumble.
The secondary is in a spot of trouble as they had a lot of departures since the end of last season. Also considering they had a middle-of-the-road passing defense, it does not bode well for this team unless safeties Chris Murphy and Tyrell Gilbert take a leap in development as they are going to be required to do a lot, especially since UCLA will be mixing up runs and passes.
So how should they fare against UCLA’s offense? They are going to have to be on ether toes all game long. Despite the fact that UCLA has a long way to go before they are a well-oiled machine, Kelly will have enough to penetrate the Bearcat defense on all three levels. If running is the basis of Kelly’s offense, then they need to run it down Cincinnati’s throat.
Special Teams
It is a tale of two special teams. For one thing, Cincinnati was in the bottom half of the American Athletic Conference in three major kicking categories: net kickoff yardage (29.8 yds, 11th AAC), net punting yardage (37.6 yds, 8th AAC) and field goal percentage (1/2 .500, 10th AAC).
Yet they were near the top when receiving the ball from kicks. The Bearcats had an impressive 25.2 yds on kickoff returns (2nd AAC) and a conference-leading 16.0 yds on punts. Unfortunately, they did not get a score for any kickoff last season. If they can find a way to squeak through, they could have quite the deadly transition game.
Final Analysis
It could be a sluggish first quarter (possibly half) for both teams as they try to get their bearings, but considering how Kelly is running this program, I expect UCLA to have things clicking sooner than later, in both the season and this game.
Though the offense will need time to get going, they should have the talent, coaching and speed to blow past the Bearcats, just as Kelly’s Oregon teams did.
On top of that, I really like what the Bruins’ defense is evolving into. With their aggressive ways, they could shut out Cincinnati, or at least keep them below their scoring average of 20.9 points per game from last season. With that being said, it has been nice knowing you, Bearcats.
Next: UCLA Football: 10 bold predictions for the 2018 season
Prediction
UCLA 45 – Cincinnati 13