Reasons For Optimism, cont.
4. Regardless of how the Bruins are seeded tomorrow, I don’t think this team is as bad as it looked last night (and certainly not as bad as some of y’all on twitter make it sound with your apocalyptic moaning).
Remember that Arizona and USC might be the two teams in the country built to match up best against UCLA. Their long, athletic guards wreak havoc on defense and disrupt the ball and off-ball movement that are the key to UCLA’s nation-leading offense. They force turnovers and break the Bruins’ rhythm to create transition buckets against an already suspect Bruin defense.
Of the teams in the tournament field, I can think of two, maybe three others in the top echelon who are built to challenge the Bruins in this way: Villanova, Kentucky, and Louisville.
Even then, the formula isn’t magic. UCLA still went 2-1 against USC because the Trojans lack the talent to stop the Bruins from going inside and letting Thomas Welsh and TJ Leaf go to work. Arizona is a much more talented team than USC (which is why UCLA went 1-2 against the Wildcats), but even they proved beatable. There’s no guarantee that UCLA will have to face one or more of these guard-led defenses in the tournament, but even if they do, they’ve proven they can beat them.
5. UCLA’s defense is not as bad as you’ll hear over and over this week. It’s not great, but when the guys crash the boards and Steve Alford makes judicious use of the zone, the Bruins are more than capable of holding their own against most offenses in the country.
Where they get in trouble is when the offense turns the ball over and gives the opponent easy transition buckets. That was the story these last two games. On Friday, the defense was able to minimize that damage. Last night, not so much. The good news is that there’s no situation remaining in which the defense will have to be on point two nights in a row.
Next: UCLA Basketball: Is There Enough Gas Left in the Tank?
6. Lastly, regression to the mean works both ways. Just like the Bruins weren’t going to shoot 70% from beyond the arc all season, they’re also unlikely to repeat the 16% debacle from last night. Three games in a row of failing to crack 80 points is not who this team is. I don’t care who the opponent is, UCLA is unlikely to look this bad on offense going forward.