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Go Joe Bruin Bracketology – Week 4

By Jake Liker

February 4, 2016; Los Angeles, CA, USA; Southern California Trojans guard Katin Reinhardt (5) moves the ball against UCLA Bruins center Thomas Welsh (40) during the second half at Galen Center. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports
February 4, 2016; Los Angeles, CA, USA; Southern California Trojans guard Katin Reinhardt (5) moves the ball against UCLA Bruins center Thomas Welsh (40) during the second half at Galen Center. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports /
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Feb 6, 2016; Manhattan, KS, USA; Oklahoma Sooners forward Khadeem Lattin(12) competes for loose ball against Kansas State Wildcats guard Justin Edwards (14) and forward Stephen Hurt (41) during first-half at Fred Bramlage Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Scott Sewell-USA TODAY Sports
Feb 6, 2016; Manhattan, KS, USA; Oklahoma Sooners forward Khadeem Lattin(12) competes for loose ball against Kansas State Wildcats guard Justin Edwards (14) and forward Stephen Hurt (41) during first-half at Fred Bramlage Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Scott Sewell-USA TODAY Sports /

The Breakdown

As we inch closer to Selection Sunday, the group of teams that get evaluated by the formula grows more and more exclusive. This week, it’s been trimmed down to 121 teams.

To be considered for the tournament this week, a team must meet at least one of the following criteria:

  1. Be ranked top 100 in RPI
  2. Be ranked top 100 in KenPom, Jeff Sagarin, and BPI
  3. Be projected to earn their conference’s automatic bid by having the fewest number of losses in conference play. In the event of a tie, RPI is used as the tiebreaker.
Click to enlarge. The scores for all 121 teams evaluated by the formula. 0.00 is the cutoff for at-large bids. UCLA is 68th. Credit: Jake Liker
Click to enlarge. The scores for all 121 teams evaluated by the formula. 0.00 is the cutoff for at-large bids. UCLA is 68th. Credit: Jake Liker /

A few notes:

  • The battle for the last 1 seed (4th) and 2 seed (8th) was incredibly tight
  • The drop-off from 3-seeds to 4-seeds is massive; nearly 50 points
  • It just hit me that USC is above Duke. College basketball, man.
  • St. Bonaventure is a bubble team now. Sure, why not?
  • The number of points separating UCLA from the last four in is about the same number of points that separates UCLA from Evansville. Sigh.
  • At 68th, UCLA would be the last team in if automatic bids and tournament ineligibility didn’t exist
  • Stony Brook is better than UCLA
  • LSU is going to be a nightmare for the formula, because the committee could give them a boost for something you can’t really account for on paper–they have the best player in the country. I’m not giving LSU bonus points for Ben Simmons, because that’s cheating. Fingers crossed that they lose a bunch of games, or win the SEC tournament.
  • Every year, the formula seems to really like one team in particular and really hate one team in particular. This year, it truly despises Washington 

Next: Bubble Watch