How UCLA basketball can make the tournament

Mar 8, 2015; Dallas, TX, USA; Tulsa Golden Hurricane guard James Woodard (10) dribbles the ball as Southern Methodist Mustangs guard Sterling Brown (3) defends in the first half at Moody Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports

Mid-Majors

Mid-major victories are the main cause for UCLA’s tournament hopes looking bleaker now than they were two weeks ago, despite winning three straight games. BYU stunned Gonzaga, Boise State upset San Diego State, Davidson is thriving, and as a result, they’re all in position to get at-large bids. These are the teams and games to keep an eye on:

-Monday 3/9 at 8:30 PM on ESPN2 West Coast Conference semifinal, #2 BYU vs #6 Portland.

All of a sudden, BYU has a good chance of making the tournament after a thrilling win over Gonzaga. Even if they lose in the conference final to Gonzaga, they still have a decent shot at being selected by the committee.

The Bruins have to hope that BYU doesn’t even get to the final, and that the Portland Pilots pull off a shocker in Vegas. Should the Cougars get past Portland, they still might not be going dancing if they lose in the final against Pepperdine instead of Gonzaga.

-Thursday 3/12 at 12:30 PM on ASN, Conference-USA quarterfinal, #3 Old Dominion vs #6 Charlotte/#11 Middle Tennessee State

UCLA Bruins

Quietly creeping there way closer and closer a punched ticket are the Old Dominion Monarchs of Conference-USA, who earned the 3-seed in the conference tournament. Unlike Tulsa in the AAC or BYU in the WCC, it does no harm to the Bruins if the Monarchs win the conference tournament, because it guarantees that no one from the C-USA snatches an at-large bid.

The worst-case scenario is that Old Dominion makes it all the way to the conference final and loses. If they lose on Thursday or Friday, there’s no way they make the tournament. But if they lose in the final, they finish the season 26-7.

Right now they rank 36th in RPI, but are held back by their SOS rank of 138th. However, the committee might not be able to resist a 26-win team with wins over VCU, LSU and Richmond.

-Thursday 3/12 at 6 PM, Mid-American Conference semifinal, #2 Buffalo vs TBD

The Buffalo Bulls’ situation is very similar to that of the Monarchs, except they’re a bit less threatening due to their lack of a top 50 win. Again, the Bruins will be unharmed if the Bulls win the conference tournament, because no one else in the MAC has what it takes to earn an at-large bid.

Also consistent with Old Dominion is that they have a very strong RPI (30th) but are held back by their SOS (84th). So once again, the Bruins should hope the Bulls either lose in the semifinal (the top 2 teams in the MAC get a triple bye and go straight to the semis) and be eliminated for sure, or hope they win it all.

Even if they do make the final and lose, it remains unlikely that the committee selects the Bulls to go dancing, but it is worth noting that since RPI became an official stat in 2005, only three top-30 RPI teams have been snubbed of an at-large bid.

-Thursday 3/12 at 8:30 PM (channel TBD) Mountain West Conference quarterfinal, #3 Colorado State vs. #6 Fresno State

Many bracketologists out there insist that Colorado State is on the bubble. I personally disagree because they have 2 top 50 wins and are 26th in RPI, but if you believe the experts, a surprisingly early exit from the conference tournament could land them on the outside looking in when it’s all said and done.

If the Rams beat Fresno State, they’re in. If not, they’re in trouble. UCLA fans should hope for trouble.

Mar 5, 2015; Storrs, CT, USA; Memphis Tigers guard Kedren Johnson (15) drives the ball against Connecticut Huskies guard Omar Calhoun (21) in the second half at Harry A. Gampel Pavilion. Memphis defeated UConn 54-53. Mandatory Credit: David Butler II-USA TODAY Sports

-Friday 3/13 at 11 AM on ESPN2, American Athletic Conference quarterfinal, #4 Temple vs #5 Memphis

The Temple Owls have been nearly impossible to peg. One day they look like a serious contender to bust some brackets, and the next they’ll look like they don’t deserve to be in the field.

If the Owls lose to Memphis, there will much less doubt that they are not a tournament team. A win against Memphis almost guarantees them a spot in March Madness, but if they lose in the semifinal, Temple might still have some praying to do come Selection Sunday.

-Friday 3/13 at 11:30 AM on NBCSN, Atlantic 10 Conference quarterfinal, #4 Richmond vs TBD

For as long as I can remember, Richmond hasn’t even been good enough to be part of the bubble this season. But now the not-so-itsy-bitsy Spiders are climbing up the ranks after closing the season on a 6-game winning streak.

The Atlantic 10 Tournament is always one of the most exciting ones to watch because it tends to be full of upsets and close games. Richmond absolutely has the ability to run the table, so the Bruins are hoping the Spiders get washed out immediately.

As of right now, Richmond is still on the outside looking in, and a quick exit from the conference tournament would seal that fate. Another benefit from Richmond losing is that it keeps them out of the top 50, which keeps the number in Old Dominion’s top 50 win column at 2.

-Friday 3/13 at 4 PM on ESPNU, American Athletic Conference quarterfinal, #2 Tulsa vs #7 Tulane/#10 Houston

Arguably the biggest threat to the Bruins in the battle for the bubble are the Tulsa Golden Hurricane. Or at least they were, until they lost back to back games against Cincinnati and SMU. The Bruins just need to hope that Tulsa loses as soon as possible, before they do enough to earn an at-large bid.