Know Your Opponent: UCLA @ Colorado
This Saturday UCLA travels to Colorado looking to follow up on the road win against California last week. The game will be televised on the Pac-12 Network at 11am.
All Time Record
The Bruins are 7 and 2 all time against Colorado. UCLA is 3-0 against Colorado since the Buffaloes joined the Pac-12 in 2011. The Bruins started the series with 4 wins in a row, then lost 2 and now have one 3 in row again. So just from a symmetrical standpoint UCLA really needs to win this game (sorry, but I like patterns). Interestingly enough, new-ish Fox Sports 1 Game Analyst and Commentator Joel Klatt was the QB for the Buffaloes when Colorado last beat UCLA in 2003.
Team of Constant Sorrow
Colorado Coach Mike MacIntyre is still looking for his first Pac-12 win in 2014.
Colorado comes into Saturdays game with a 2-5 record (0-4 in the Pac-12), but the Buffaloes have improved considerably since 2013. Colorado went 1-8 in the Pac-12 last year and lost those games by an average margin of 29 points (the only win came against 1-11 California). The Buffaloes have been much more competitive this year. Colorado took a much improved Cal team to 2 OTs, played closer than the score indicated against ASU and came up just short against Oregon State. Even after a horrific start against USC last week, Colorado managed to score 4 touchdowns against the Trojans after the 1st quarter ended. Even in the blowouts, Colorado’s problems were in large part self inflicted (kind of like the Bruins against Cal and Oregon). The Trojans took a 28-0 lead in the 1st quarter last week largely because of multiple penalties on both sides of the ball and an interception. When the Buffaloes avoid shooting themselves in the hoof, they can be an effective team.
Colorado Offense
The Buffaloes offense is led by Sophomore QB Sefo Liufau. Liufau has thrown 21 touchdowns to only 9 interceptions so far this year, and he only needs 2 more touchdown passes to break the Colorado record for most touchdown passes in a season. Liufau is not a huge threat to run (the only Pac-12 game in which he ran for 20+ yards was against Cal), but he will try to keep a defense honest if he can get out of the pocket.
Will the Spruce get loose against the Bruins? Mandatory Credit: Kelley L Cox-USA TODAY Sports
Liufau’s favorite target is Nelson Spruce. Through the 1st 5 games of the season Spruce averaged just shy of 140 yards per game receiving, and he has already caught 11 touchdowns. Spruce has not been as explosive in the last two games (he had at least one 30 yard reception in the first five games, but none against Oregon State or USC), but it will be important for the Bruins secondary to limit big plays by Spruce and the other Colorado receivers. Big plays have been a problem for Colorado as they have taken the short passing game to an extreme level. Colorado is #18 in the NCAA in passing yards at over 300 yards per game, but they are #120 in the country in yards per completion at 9.8 YPC (they are one of only 9 teams in the country that is under 10 YPC).
The Buffalo running game is the definition of Running-Back-By-Committee this year, but it has been fairly productive. Colorado averages a respectable 4.1 yards per carry. As always, the Bruins first priority should be to make the Colorado offense one dimensional by stopping the run 1st (as was the case against Cal and ASU).
Colorado Defense
Colorado’s true struggle is on defense. They start 6 underclassmen on defense and it shows. The Buffaloes are ranked #90 or worse in every meaningful defensive category except rushing defense (which isn’t much better at #80). In Pac-12 play, the Buffaloes are last in Scoring Defense (UCLA isn’t much better at #9) and #11 in Total Defense (UCLA is #6). Colorado is also last in the PAc-12 in Opponents Yards per Rush. UCLA is currently the #1 Rushing Offense in the PAC-12 (who knew?), so expect the Bruins to continue to pound the ball en route to opening up the passing game.
UCLA has the #1 Rushing Offense in the PAC-12 , so expect the Bruins to continue to pound the ball en route to opening up the passing game.
Although Colorado is not as bad as the record indicates, it would behoove UCLA to put a big number up against the Buffaloes. The Bruins are barely holding on to the top 25 ranking and very few people will actually see the game on the Pac-12 Network, so the score will be the only thing voters look at regarding this game. However with Arizona, Washington, USC and Stanford looming at the end of the schedule, the priority for UCLA needs to be 1) get the victory and 2) get out of Colorado healthy.
Prediction
The Buffaloes will put up a fight early, but the Bruins pull away in the 2nd half with a convincing victory.
UCLA 38 Colorado 20