Know Your Opponent: UCLA vs Arizona

UCLA vs Arizona, The Rose Bowl, 730pm ESPN

The UCLA Bruins have an opportunity against the visiting Arizona Wildcats this Saturday night. After following a pair of losses to Utah and Oregon with a pair of “letdown” wins against California and Colorado, UCLA once again has a spotlight game against a top 25 opponent on a national broadcast. Its homecoming night, its the debut of Alternate Unis: LA Steel Edition and the Bruins dominated the Wildcats last year… what could go wrong?

Random Arizona Fact #1: Did you know that the State of Arizona’s official neck-wear is the bolo tie?

Series History

• UCLA leads the all time series against Arizona with a record of 21-14-1.
• Arizona was part of the WAC for the first 3 meetings between the schools (1971, 1972 and 1976 – the Bruins won all 3).
• UCLA played its first Pac-10 game against Arizona in 1978 (the Bruins won 24-14).
• Arizona enjoyed its longest winning streak against UCLA this past decade when the Wildcats won 5 in a row from 2007-2011.
• That streak came to an end when Jim Mora arrived in Westwood, as the Bruins are riding a two game win streak against the cats coming into Saturday’s game.

Rich-Rod’s offense is passing more this year with Anu Solomon. Mandatory Credit: Casey Sapio-USA TODAY Sports

Arizona Offense – Rich-Rod Passing More Than Ever Before

Arizona Coach Rich Rodriguez has made his career as one of the innovators of the spread offense that has largely taken over college football. Rich-Rod’s teams have traditionally been balanced or run heavy offenses; at West Virginia his offenses regularly ran for twice as much yardage as they gained through the air; in his time at Michigan, the Wolverines were almost an even split of run and pass yardage. However, Rich-Rod is airing it out more than ever before in this year’s installment of the Wildcat offense.

Oct 25, 2014; Pullman, WA, USA; Arizona Wildcats quarterback Anu Solomon (12) throws a pass against the Washington State Cougars during the first half at Martin Stadium. Mandatory Credit: James Snook-USA TODAY Sports

Red-shirt Freshman Anu Solomon won the starting QB job over the summer and has more than lived up to expectations. Already this year, Solomon has 3 games in which he has thrown for over 375 yards, and he has a staggering (for a FROSH especially) TD/INT ratio of 20/4 (Brett Hundley is currently sitting at 14/4). Solomon is a threat to run only in that he will keep the defense honest if he needs too. In PAC-12 play so far, Solomon has not exceeded 50 yards in a single game and he is averaging less than 20 yards on the ground. The Arizona receiving corp is an extremely balanced and dangerous group. This years 3 leading receivers (Sophomores Cayleb Jones and Samajie Grant and Senior Austin Hill) are all averaging over 14 YPC and all three have a TD catch of at least 60 yards.

Although Arizona is throwing the ball more than usual, the Wildcats also have a pair of very competent running backs. Freshman Nick Wilson and Senior Terris Jones-Grigsby are both averaging close to 6 YPC this season. Wilson started out the season as the featured back, but was hurt early in conference play. He came back against Washington State gingerly, with only 18 yards on 10 carries. Jones-Grigsby has carried more of the load recently. He has rushed for more than 100 yards in 2 of the last 3 games.

Oct 2, 2014; Eugene, OR, USA; Arizona Wildcats running back Nick Wilson (28) runs the ball against the Arizona Wildcats at Autzen Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Scott Olmos-USA TODAY Sports

Live Feed

Betsided

It should come as no surprise, but Arizona’s best game this year was the game in which they were also the most balanced. Against Oregon, the Arizona offense play selection was run heavy (31 pass attempts/55 runs), but the end yardage was more balanced (287 passing/208 running). The Cats were able to take the air out of the ball and grind out a victory against the Ducks. In their loss to the Trojans, Arizona went pass happy  (72 pass attempts/29 runs) because USC jumped out to a large lead. Against Washington State, the Wildcats were once again much more balanced (38 pass attempts/36 runs). Despite this years more pass-minded tendencies, look for Arizona to try the same strategy they used at Oregon against UCLA. If the Cats can avoid a bad start, they will try to control the ball and time of possession against UCLA’s boom or bust fast tempo offense.

Random Arizona Fact #2: Did you know that is illegal to refuse a person’s request for a glass of water  in the State of Arizona.

Arizona Defense – 3 linemen and 3 linebackers = lots of guys blitzing

The Wildcat defense has had its ups and downs this year. On one hand, Arizona is ranked 10th in the Pac-12 in terms of Total Defense, giving up a average of 496 YPG (UCLA is 7th with 460 YPG). The Cats are also ranked 11th in Passing Yards Allowed and 9th in Pass Defense Efficiency (the UCLA defense is currently 5th and 4th in the Pac-12, respectively). The 3-3-5 defense allows Arizona to blitz the opposing offense from multiple angles and disguises, but it also makes the Cats vulnerable to big plays. For the last two years, this chaotic defense has been led by Scooby Wright III.

Oct 11, 2014; Tucson, AZ, USA; Southern California Trojans quarterback Cody Kessler (6) is pursued by Arizona Wildcats linebacker Scooby Wright III (33) at Arizona Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

Go on a beer run like this and you’re going to prison.

Random Arizona Fact #3: Any misdemeanor committed in Arizona whilst wearing a red mask is upgraded to a felony.

October Sucked, What will the Bruins do with November?

Despite a rough 2-2 October, the Bruins are still at least theoretically in the Pac-12 South race. The Bruins close the season against the gauntlet of Arizona, Washington, USC and Stanford, but if they can make it through undefeated there is a decent shot that they will end up in the Pac-12 Title Game.

…the Bruins are being too cute when they should just be playing to their strengths…

But none of that will matter if the Bruins can’t get it done against Arizona. UCLA has been a prolific offense by almost every description this year, but the lasting impression is that Brett Hundley and Co are prone to meltdowns at the most importune moments. The much maligned Bruin defense has had its worst moments when they have been stranded on the field by the offense with 3 and outs and bad turnovers.

You Know… 3rd Down is kind of a big deal

The Bruins are really not far far away from a great performance. Besides the random Hundley fumble or pick6, the Bruins most consistent problem has been 3rd down efficiency. So far in 2014, UCLA is only 39% on 3rd down and only 52% on 3rd downs of 3 yards or less. Last year the Bruins were 49% on 3rd down and 66% on 3rd and 3 or less.

Prediction

UCLA finally plays a good game at the Rose Bowl and beats Arizona 41-31 . . . or Scooby Wright decapitates Hundley with a clothesline at midfield and the Wildcats win 77-0 . . . either is possible.