UCLA Football: Trying To Define Success In 2013

Christopher Hanewinckel-USA TODAY Sports

With any new coaching regime, it’s hard to gain clarity after just one season. No matter how bad or good a coach’s maiden season with his team is, there’s no guarantee that those failures or successes are replicated. In fact, following up a good season with a bad one is just as likely as any other possible scenario.

This UCLA football team is no exception. Despite some key players returning, and despite some hellish efforts at recruiting upper-tier talent based on need, it’s totally unclear how this Bruin team fares come August 31.

This rule seems to be especially applicable to the Bruins’ upcoming 2013 slate of games because, Jesus Christ, this schedule is brutal.

You don’t need us to explain why; we’re sure you’ve heard that the Bruins are playing at Oregon and at Stanford on back-to-back weekends, and we’re sure you know UCLA’s taking on heated rival USC in the Coliseum later this season, and we’re damn sure you’re aware that UCLA’s taking their squad up north to Lincoln for a tilt with Nebraska rather early on.

With such a difficult schedule, it’ll be hard to expect this team to improve linearly in 2013. It’ll be tough to demand that this team wins one more game than it did in 2012, and even tougher to demand that this team get to the Rose Bowl this time around, rather than getting within reach of it like they did in 2012.

At the same time, this is still a talented team. Road schedule be damned, this team still has an All-American offensive linemen in Xavier Su’a-Filo; this team still calls itself home to all-world linebacker Anthony Barr; and this team still houses one of the better offensive minds in college football in offensive coordinator Noel Mazzone.

So lowering, perhaps tempering, expectations seems a bit unreasonable. While this team lost Johnathan Franklin, they’ve gained an incredible amount of experience as a result of a young squad growin’ up over the past calendar year.

But good god, nine wins? Can that be replicated? Possibly. Does it have to be, for this team to have a decent season? Nope. Let’s lay out some key objectives for this team to consider its 2013 campaign a success.

Finish .500 or better against ranked teams

UCLA will likely play four squads that are going to be ranked in a Top 25 poll: Nebraska, Stanford, Oregon and USC. Additionally, by the time November 23 rolls around, the Bruins’ tilt with Arizona State may also feature both teams being ranked. Each season is pretty unique, though, so the possibility that there are more or less ranked teams on UCLA’s schedule isn’t far-fetched.

Regardless, UCLA needs to make sure it’s winning at least half of its games against ranked teams. Why only half? Because this year, all of the four nearly-surefire ranked squads will host the Bruins in 2013.

While beating Stanford and Oregon would be nice, coming away with a single win out of that two-week span would be just fine.

There’s a caveat here, though: In order for us all to feel pretty good about this UCLA team moving forward, the Bruins need to make sure of one other thing…

Don’t lose by more than 10 points to anyone

While the previous criterion lends itself to flexibility, this one doesn’t. Last year, the Bruins were blown out three times, and all three made it appear that the Bruins lacked focus and discipline. (Side note: They weren’t very focused and disciplined.) A big loss to Cal was embarrassing, a blowout loss to Stanford was somewhat forgivable (given that the Bruins took it to the Cardinal in Palo Alto for the Pac-12 title game), and the beating at the hands of the Baylor Bears at season’s end was totally unacceptable and has yet to be redeemed.

In order for this team to set itself up for a serious national title run in 2014, when college football moves to a playoff system, these Bruins will need to ensure themselves, and their fans, that they’re becoming increasingly competitive in every way imaginable. We’ve all seen that team that is always within striking distance, that’s beatable by the top dogs but that none of the top dogs really want to face come Saturday. That’s what this UCLA team should be in 2013.

A 3-point loss to an Oregon team that blew its opponents out of the water in 2012 would leave fans and players hopeful. A heartbreaking loss to Nebraska won’t hurt morale so much. A tight fall to USC … well, that would suck.

Speaking of which…

Don’t lose to USC

This UCLA team earned itself unimaginable momentum that’s had repercussions in the recruiting game after beating USC, 38-28, in the Rose Bowl last year.

It was nice to out-recruit USC while watching the Trojans’ top-heavy class take a tumble, wasn’t it?

Recruiting L.A. is critical to the Bruins’ long-term success, especially since Mora will have a chance to recruit players he wants. Beating USC would seriously topple the Trojans’ recruiting momentum (assuming they have any by November 30), and could result in the firing of head coach Lane Kiffin. Doing so could also set back the Trojans a few years, and it could leave UCLA atop the city-wide hierarchy for quite a long time.

A loss, though—no matter how big or small—would relegate recruits and the media to their typical, “same, old UCLA” shtick. We don’t want that, do we?

Don’t lose to crappy teams

Last year, we gave the Bruins some leeway here: Given the circumstances, having one throwaway loss would be OK so long as they stayed competitive. Well, the Bruins wound up losing to Cal and Baylor, both of which combined for just 10 regular season wins. What’s worse, these Bruins were destroyed by both Bears, and both halted UCLA’s momentum drastically.

While some teams could be significantly better in 2013 (namely Cal and Colorado, both of which now have new head honchos), we can kind of assume that Colorado and California need some time to recover, and we can assume that Utah will be only insignificantly better this year. We can also assume that the Bruins are miles ahead of where Nevada and New Mexico State are (given Nevada is now without its longtime head coach Chris Ault, and given that New Mexico State just plain stinks).

To these eyes, there are five, largely clear easy-wins for the Bruins: Nevada, New Mexico State, Utah, Cal, Colorado. (I almost included Rich Rodriguez’s Arizona Wildcats, given how much talent that team is losing, but I’ll hold off.)

Against those five teams, their record should be 5-0.

Win the bowl game

If UCLA doesn’t go to a bowl game, it may be worth your time to become disillusioned with Mora’s swagger as a college head coach. Of course, UCLA failing to make a bowl game seems unlikely, so let’s assume they get there.

Should they go bowling, the Bruins need to win that bowl game. It doesn’t matter who they end up playing: Jim Mora could be given a pass against Baylor in that debacle that was the Holiday Bowl. It was, after all, his first time coaching a bowl game ever, and even some of the greatest coaches in college football history have lost their first bowl game against superior opponents. (Hey there, Nick Saban.)

This time, though, there shouldn’t be any screwing around. During an interview with GJB, Johnathan Franklin hinted that quite a few of his teammates were incredibly distracted and not focused on the task at hand. Mora perhaps got too excited and let the kids have fun. When UCLA gets to a bowl game in 2013-14, we should hear a much different story.

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