Go Joe Bruin continues to look into the 2016 UCLA Football schedule with our game-by-game analysis. In this piece, we look at the Bruin’s first home game against the UNLV Rebels.
“Rebel, rebel, your face is a mess.” Well, not anymore. Here is the thing about the UNLV Football program… they have not been good. In the last 20 years, they have had a winning record in only 2 season. TWO!
Related Story: UCLA Vs. Texas A&M Preview
That seems to be changing under second-year coach Tony Sanchez who was an uber-successful coach in the high school ranks with Las Vegas’ own Bishop Gorman High School. Despite only winning three games last year, he has injected some life into the program.
So this year, will the Rebels give the UCLA Football team some fits? Let us first analyze the teams before we jump to a prediction…
2015 Records and Recap
UCLA 8-5, 5-4 Pac-12 | UNLV 3-9, 2-6 Mountain West
We all know how the Bruins ended their 2015 season… getting run over by USC and Nebraska (in the Foster Farms Bowl). The Bruins had a horrendous run defense that placed them 8th in the Pac-12 with 198.5 ypg allowed.
The Bruins finished with an 8-5 record, which is not bad for the average FBS school, but at UCLA and the Bruin Revolution, 8-5 is a damn shame.
The opposite is true for UNLV. They ended their season 3-9, but if you take a closer look at their schedule, they could easily have been 5-7, or even as a stretch 7-5. In four of their losses, they lost by a touchdown or less. That is something to get excited for if you are a Rebel fan.
After UNLV’s loss to UCLA last season, the Rebels then turned around and put a hurt on Idaho State with an 80-8 whooping. The week after, the Rebels had their only streak of the year with a win at Nevada. That streak almost went to three games, but lost in overtime to San Jose State. The week after, they only lost by 3 to Mountain West power Fresno State.
After a win against Hawai’i, the Rebels ended the season on a three game losing streak. Though it seemed like another losing season, there were several signals the show UNLV is heading in a different direction.
Next: Key Players and Stats
3 Key Players
Devonte Boyd WR
As a two-time 2nd team All-Mountain West player, Boyd has been the Rebel’s go-to guy through the air. He was 3rd in receiving yards in conference last year with 904 and 4th in the receiving yards per game with 75.3 ypg.
The Cornhusker turned JUCO superstar turned Rebel should be a good edition to the offense. Last year in junior college, not only was he an All-American, but threw for over 3,000 yards and had 37 touchdowns to go with it. He has two solid receivers, so if he can mesh with them early, hopefully he can improve on UNLV’s passing average of 211.4 ypg from last year.
Definitely the most feared Rebel defenseman in the team. Lotulelei led UNLV in total tackles with 100, with 10.5 going for a loss. He also added three sacks and 2 forced fumbles to his 2015 stat sheet.
Stats
- Last season was the first ever meeting between the UNLV and UCLA Football teams.
- UNLV improved in both total offense and defense last year. The offense has 405 ypg (+18 from 2014) and defense only allowed 457 (-56 from 2014).
- UCLA has won their last five home openers, losing the last one in 2010 against Stanford, 35-0.
Next: Offenses Vs. Defenses
UCLA Offense Vs. UNLV Defense
We clearly do not know how UCLA’s new power-based offense will do against Texas A&M the week before, but no matter what, the Bruins should be able to fine tune it against the Rebels.
As far as the running game goes, the Bruins should have a field day with the Rebel front line that only returns two players. Unless the younger Rebels can develop and step up in time, it looks like UNLV could once again be weak with their run defense that gave up 217.5 ypg last year.
The interesting part of this game will be the passing game of UCLA. Sophomore QB Josh Rosen should be a lot more confident in his second go-round, even though he has questions with the receiving corp that loses their top three targets: Devin Fuller, Thomas Duarte and Jordan Payton.
UNLV has a decent pass defense, but if it is anything like what the Bruins saw last year, Rosen could have one epic passing day. Returning will be the likes of Darren Andrews, Stephen Johnson III, Kenneth Walker, Mossi Johnson and Eldridge Massington, as well as adding Ishmael Adams, Damian Aloway and Theo Howard who the Rebel secondary are going to have a hard time keeping the Bruins in check.
UCLA Defense Vs. UNLV Offense
UNLV returning starting RB Keith Whitely will not be playing because of a suspension, though the Rebels have a good #2 in Lexington Thomas. They will be running behind an O-line that returns three starters, including Will Kreitler who could be the best center in the Mountain West.
UCLA Bruins
UNLV lost a few key players in the passing game but have a incredible tandem of Devonte Boyd and Kendal Keys. The question here is how will the transition to a new quarterback be for the offense.
The assumed starter is Johnny Stanton, who has a good arm who looks like he could mesh with his receivers sooner than later, but he is seriously going to be tested against the Bruin’s secondary.
UCLA is returning a lot of great talent with their defensive backs who were tops in the Pac-12 last season in pass defense. I hate to say it, but if UNLV has any chance, it is on the ground and that is the part of the game I am interested in seeing.
UCLA’s run defense was atrocious last season, so to help heal that pain, they are switching to a 4-3. Now there is no doubt the Bruins will hold the line, but how? They may limit touchdowns, but if UNLV gets 250-300 yards, that is not a good sign. UCLA, who returns four linemen, Eddie Vanderdoes, Eli Ankou, Takkarist McKinley and Deon Hollins, should be able to hold them between 100-150. If they make the necessary improvements they need to, I would not be surprised if they hold the Rebels to under 100 yards.
Next: Final Analysis and Prediction
Final Analysis
This should be a very convincing UCLA Football victory (and hopefully go 2-0). Though I pray for a shut out, after further analysis of this Rebel team. I do not think it will be that easy. Last year the Bruins had a shut out until just over 10 minutes left in the game.
This year, with the experience and improvements of Tony Sanchez’s Rebels, if they can exploit the run game they could rattle off a couple touchdowns, but that is it.
Oppositely, the Bruin’s offense should be effective on the ground and through the air. Rosen will be hot. Soso Jamabo will be hot. Conor McDermott will be hot. The Bruins will be hot. Last year UCLA totaled 526 yards. Eclipsing that mark should not be a problem in front of the home crowd for the first game at the Rose Bowl of the 2016 season.
More from Go Joe Bruin
- UCLA Football: It’s time for the nation to meet Dante Moore
- UCLA Football: Where are they ranked heading into week 4
- UCLA Football: Position battle breakdown for Utah showdown
- UCLA vs. Utah: Location, time, prediction, and more
- UCLA Football: Highlights from Chip Kelly’s appearance on the Jim Rome Show
Next: Talking About the UCLA Football Defensive Line
Early Prediction
UNLV Rebels 9 – UCLA Bruins 42