It’s mid-June which means we can start looking forward to the 2016 UCLA football schedule. In our first game analysis, we look at the Bruins starting off the 2016 season with a trip to College Station to face the Texas A&M Aggies on Sept. 3rd.
In what should have easily qualified for an ESPN prime showing, two major programs will face with plenty of storylines abound.
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The Bruins return their bright, young, star quarterback but needs to answer questions on both sides of the ball after losing a number of key players to the 2016 NFL Draft while Texas A&M will have to see how its new quarterback Trevor Knight adjusts, but will also be without one of their top targets in Speedy Noil who will be suspended for the season opener.
Let’s get into the meat of matchup and give you the facts you’ll need to get a jump on next season.
2015 Records
UCLA 8-5, 5-4 | Texas A&M 8-5, 4-4
The Bruins ended 2015 on a sour note. They lost to crosstown rival USC for the first time since 2012 and then dropped their bowl game to a Nebraska team that had to get an NCAA waiver since they were not over the .500 mark during the regular season.
UCLA Bruins
While 8-5 isn’t the worst record, and in fact many teams would be excited to end the season with that winning mark, those two losses at the end of the season were cause for grief from the fanbase and media.
The Bruins will have to replace three starting offensive linemen, their three leading receivers and starting tailback from last year but pulled in an impressive signing class specifically on the defense.
Their losses didn’t end with players though as offensive coordinator Noel Mazzone and quarterback’s coach Taylor Mazzone left to head to College Station strangely enough. They have been replaced (and likely upgraded) by Kennedy Polamalu and Marques Tuiasosopo respectively.
Aggie nation was stunned when not one but both starting quarterbacks from the 2015 season transferred away from the program this offseason. Their quarterback scramble led to them landing Oklahoma graduate transfer Knight, but has many around the country wondering about the stability of their program and why two quarterbacks would leave when head coach Kevin Sumlin is thought of as an offensive guru.
The Aggies finished the year with an 8-5 record with an identical 0-2 record in their regular season finale and bowl game just like the Bruins. Texas A&M has much fewer questions across the board, return stud players all over their roster and the defense, which hasn’t always been the strength of the Aggies, should improve greatly under John Chavis in his second year.
Next: Key Players and Stats
3 Key Players
1. LT Connor McDermott is going to make or break this game for the Bruins. I know we might focus heavily on Josh Rosen or any one of the skill players but McDermott is key for UCLA in this matchup.
Betsided
The Aggies have two QB killers at defensive end in Daeshon Hall and future top-15 NFL draft selection Myles Garrett. McDermott has improved throughout his four seasons at UCLA and as a former tight end has some impressive athleticism. He’s long, he’s lean, he’s strong and he’s going to have his hands full.
2. The obvious choice that many analysts want to focus on for the Aggies will be Garrett but since he’s going to be squarely in Connor McDermott’s sights, we can look at another player. WR Christian Kirk has to pick up the slack that fellow receiver Noil will leave due to his suspension. Kirk isn’t a slouch of a receiver though and was stellar as a freshman catching the ball and in the return game.
His speed, hands and route running ability gave defenses fits last year and he should only be better this year. The depth of the UCLA secondary isn’t an issue at all but Kirk will be Knight’s primary target and his success will be a big part of the outcome.
3. Let’s return to UCLA again and focus on DE Takkarist McKinley. He’s now had two full seasons in the UCLA program and should continue to refine his skillset as their most complete traditional defensive end.
The Aggie offense pass game is going to be predicated on the quick pass and play-action pass, something he saw every day at practice the last two years, and quick disruption will be key. He has the length, size and quick twitch to be a force but needs to continue to get stronger. If he’s on, it could be a very long day for A&M.
Quick Stats
- The UCLA Bruins are 4-0 against the SEC since 2000 but also haven’t faced the conference since 2009 when they beat Tennessee
- Overall they are 11-11-2 but have been limited to under 20 points per game on average while allowing almost 24 points per game on average which is almost on par with their 25 points per game allowed in 2015
- In their first season under defensive coordinator John Chavis, the Aggies improved their defense as a whole but shaved about a full touchdown off their points allowed per game from 2014
Next: Offenses Vs. Defenses
UCLA Offense v Texas A&M Defense
The Bruins’ new offense will feature some power positions that have been lacking the past few years. In the last 5 seasons before Chavis’ arrival I wouldn’t have been so worried about an Aggie defense but given what he did with LSU and even last year in College Station, there has to be some concern.
As stated earlier the Bruins need to replace three offensive linemen which is a nightmare scenario when you’re going to face a defensive line that features at least three guys that will play on Sundays. The front seven of A&M is going to be active and fast flowing but did surrender yards on the ground last season.
One of the best ways to protect your quarterback is to have a successful running game and I have faith that UCLA will be able to do some damage against the Aggies on the ground while sprinkling in some surgeon like passes.
Texas A&M Offense v UCLA Defense
It would be pretty safe to assume that because Mazzone is now with A&M, any competitive advantage that may have been had for either side is going to be a wash so let’s leave that out of our discussion. The Bruins were horrific last season against the run and the Aggies have a stable of backs.
What should help UCLA improve is a shift to the 4-3 defense and their 2016 signing class that included a few big bodies on the defensive line. Conditioning is going to be huge for the UCLA defense though as the Mazzone offense is fast paced and requires defenses to be fundamentally sound in order to shut it down.
Trevor Knight is a mobile passer and has big time targets in Noil and Rick Seals-Jones. A trademark of a Mazzone offense is a heavy dose of the run game and both Keith Ford and James White should see plenty of touches.
Next: Final Analysis and Prediction
Final Analysis
It is an uphill battle for UCLA. The Aggies have speed, depth and took down a Pac-12 opponent last year in their season opener. However, the Bruins are young, talented and have been on a steady climb the past two years despite the perceived down year last season.
They also getting back a few guys who were injured last year and who are playing for the NFL in their final season at UCLA. Both of these teams have the potential to really light up score boards but the Bruins will have to demonstrate they aren’t going to have a hangover from last season and are able to move on from their personnel losses. I do think defensively the Bruins can hang with the Aggies and we might see some late game heroics from Josh Rosen.
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Early Score Prediction
It will be ugly and it should be close but I’m taking the BRUINS to make an early season statement. Final Score: UCLA 36-34.