Bracketology Hell
Welcome to the third iteration of this year’s Go Joe Bruin Bracketology. All projections are made by compiling data and using a formula to convert all of these numbers into a final score for each team.
This edition of the Go Joe Bruin Bracketology prepares to quantify just how far away a team is from being a certain seed, or simply just being the tournament. After splitting a home series against the Washington schools, this could be especially helpful for UCLA fans, as the Bruins remain firmly in tournament limbo. How low can they go before their bubble is burst?
This week was bracketology hell, plain and simple. I sat down to input all the updated data at 6 p.m. Then there’s a gap in my memory; all I know is I stayed in my room all night and forgot to eat dinner. By the time I had all the numbers I needed, it was 9:30. My eyes bloodshot, in too deep to stop, the painstaking process of inputting data for 130 teams was over.
I clicked the sort button, and to my horror, Kansas State was the last team in. Normally I listen to the formula, but I tweak it in accordance with common sense. So I toyed around with each calculation, looking for something to fix my purple problem. Instead, things got progressively worse.
Through the Phog
Next thing I knew, it was past 10, and chaos had broken out in my spreadsheet. Valparaiso was an 8 seed. William & Mary was making a run at an at-large bid. Stony Brook had jumped UCLA. Stony Brook. Stony Brook sounds more like it belongs on a map in a Dora the Explorer episode than it does in a tournament bracket. I’m sure it’s right next to Tall Mountain.
And on top of all of this, I still wasn’t satisfied with who ended up on the right side of the bubble. And that’s when I realized my big issue–no one deserved those coveted last two spots. Kansas State, Butler, George Washington, Vanderbilt, Texas Tech; none of them had any business being in the Big Dance.
But then I remembered, that was the same thing everyone said about George Mason in 2006, and VCU in 2011. How could I forget Dickie V’s iconic rant?
"My wife knows diddly about basketball, but if you put her here and said ‘Look at Colorado’s résumé, look at UAB, and look at VCU’, it would be…a mismatch, man. It would be like a beauty contest: Roseanne Barr walkin’ in, versus Scarlett Johanssen; no shot. None whatsoever."
This week, it’s Roseanne’s turn to shine.
Next: The Formula
The Formula
This week I learned that less is more. It became evident to me that taking hours to input 16 different variables and second semester junior year of high school are not compatible.
I also reevaluated last year’s formula, and found that using five variables would have yielded a more accurate projection than what I actually used: 13 variables.
So to make my life easier and my projections more accurate, I cut some numbers out of the equation. I previously had 4 different measures for strength of schedule: the official RPI measure, BPI’s measure, Sagarin’s measure, and KenPom’s measure. Now, only the official RPI-based strength of schedule will be used.
But to make sure that teams were still adequately punished/rewarded for their schedule, I modified the formula to account for strength of conference. Sorry, Stony Brook, but being in the America East knocks you down a few pegs.
Next: The Bracket
The Bracket
Results of games played after Tuesday, Feb. 2. are not accounted for. Italics denote a First Four matchup. The bracket is assembled in accordance with the official 2015-16 NCAA Division I Men’s Basketball Championship principles and procedures for establishing the bracket. You can compare these projections with those of other bracketologists nationwide at the Bracket Matrix.
In the end, it was Texas Tech and Butler who eked in to the field, with Kansas State, George Washington, and Vanderbilt left on the outside looking in. This will be explained a couple of slides from now.
Most intriguing matchup: 8. VCU vs 9. St. Mary’s
There were a lot of juicy matchups to choose from this week. Arizona–Connecticut features two programs that have combined to win five of the last 20 tournaments, and Wichita State-Valparaiso is a battle between a pair of traditional cinderellas, but ultimately I was unable to resist picking a showdown between two of the best mid-majors in the country with the Rams and the Gaels. Given Villanova‘s recent history, I’d pick either VCU or St. Mary’s to trounce the Wildcats en route to the Sweet 16.
Most upset-prone matchup: 4. Louisville vs 13. Chattanooga
Louisville has been a 4 seed in four of the past five tournaments, and each time they had nail-biters in the round of 64 against 13-seeds. They lost to Morehead State in 2011, and played tight contests against Davidson, Manhattan, and UC Irvine in 2012, 2014, and 2015, respectively. The Mocs are 19-3 this year and just scored 125 points earlier this week. This matchup is a recipe for madness.
Next: The Breakdown
The Breakdown
To qualify to be evaluated this week, a team had to meet one of three standards…
A) Have the fewest in-conference losses in their conference (tiebreaker is RPI)
B) Be top 115 in RPI
C) Be top 100 in KenPom, Sagarin, AND BPI
Some quick observations:
- The race for the 4th and final 1 seed was especially close this week
- Washington got a raw deal; they’re clearly a cut above the other First Four teams
- The 12 and 13 seeds are especially strong this year–San Diego State, Arkansas-Little Rock, Chattanooga, South Dakota State, and yes, even Stony Brook, all infiltrated the bubble
- The battle to be the worst team in the tournament between Hampton and Texas Southern was incredibly tight
- Oklahoma would need to screw up very badly to lose the top overall seed
Next: The UCLA Outlook
The UCLA Outlook
It’s just the same old story for the Bruins. Kentucky and Arizona both lost again, the Bruins split another Pac-12 series, and they’re running out of time to fix it. UCLA needs to start winning games, and they need to start now.
We can play the blind résumé game. I’ll present the résumés of four bubble teams, and you can rank them. Then I’ll reveal their identities.
The formula ranked these teams: #1-C #2-B #3-A #4-D
Team A was Kansas State, Team B was Butler, Team C was Texas Tech, Team D was UCLA.
Below is the full breakdown of the 16 bubble teams.
Next: Go Joe Bruin Bracketology Week 2
cRPI is the RPI of the team’s conference as a whole
APV is the number of points received in the most recent AP poll
KPr is KenPom rank, JSr is Sagarin rank, BPIr is BPI rank.
W1/W2/W3 are RPI Top 25 wins/RPI 26-50 wins/RPI 51-100 wins
L4/L5 are RPI 101-200 losses/RPI 201-351 losses