A Minefield of Upsets
We’re now less than 50 days away from Selection Sunday, and with the nation’s elite being upset left and right, some unfamiliar faces emerged at the other side of a minefield of upsets unscathed. Week 2 of Go Joe Bruin Bracketology has some shake-ups in store.
It’s official; with Temple upsetting SMU, no undefeated teams remain in division I. This week was a reminder that no one is safe. Not Oklahoma, not Kansas, not Villanova, not Michigan State. No one.
Teams like Iowa and Texas A&M, have crept toward the top of the AP poll unnoticed. VCU is relevant again. Oregon might actually be the best team in the Pac-12.
Yet with so many changes in just a seven day span, one constant emerged. If there’s something we could rely on since last season, it’s that UCLA will find themselves right on the bubble, regardless of the storm that rages on around them. In the world of uncertainty that is college basketball, UCLA’s bubble status is our solace.
Next: The Bracket
Italics denote a First Four matchup.
The Bracket
NOTE: The projections account for all games played before Monday, January 25th. The bracket is assembled in accordance with the official 2015-16 NCAA Division I Men’s Basketball Championship principles and procedures for establishing the bracket. You can compare these projections with those of other bracketologists nationwide at the Bracket Matrix.
First Four games:
12-East – Gonzaga vs Cincinnati
16-Midwest – Montana vs Hampton
16-West – Texas Southern vs Mount St. Mary’s
11-West – Seton Hall vs Florida State
Most Intriguing Matchup: Duke vs Monmouth would be the ultimate good versus evil matchup
Most Upset-Prone Matchup: Purdue vs Arkansas-Little Rock would be a classic 5-12 upset candidate, as shown by the Trojans’ continued dominance in the Sun Belt.
Next: The Breakdown
The Breakdown
There have been three tweaks made to this week’s formula, which accounts for win-loss record, the AP Top 25 Poll, team rankings and strength of schedules from four different computer metrics (RPI, KenPom, Sagarin ratings, and BPI) and good wins and bad losses, which are quantified using an opponent’s current RPI ranking.
The first tweak places less weight in the three secondary computer metrics: KenPom, Sagarin, and BPI. Sorry, Washington. Congrats, Monmouth.
Sorry, Washington. Congrats, Monmouth.
The second tweak is more minor, punishing teams a little less for losses against teams outside the RPI top 200, but also rewarding teams a little less for an RPI top 25 win. Again, my apologies to Washington (3 top 25 wins), and my congratulations to Monmouth (3 bottom 151 losses).
See if you can notice the third tweak on your own.
The last team in, Cincinnati, has a score of 0.00, and that’s not a coincidence. The third tweak doesn’t affect the ranking of each team; it simply gives every team bonus points so that the last team to receive an at-large bid has a score of 0.00.
So this week, the Bearcats’ score was originally -42.32. Since they were the last team in, every team received an extra 42.32 points.
This makes it easier to quantify how close a given team is to making the tournament.
Next: The Outlook
The UCLA Outlook: Living On The Bubble
The Bruins remain on the outside looking in, and it’s the same story as last week.
- Their record still isn’t good enough – Saturday’s loss at Oregon drops the Bruins to 12-8.
- Their most impressive wins look less and less impressive with each passing day – Arizona lost at Cal this week, and Gonzaga‘s loss at St. Mary’s knocked the Bulldogs out of the RPI top 60
- The computers are not satisfied – None of the four computer metrics have the Bruins in the top 50.
Here’s a closer look at the bubble:
Most teams ahead of the Bruins are top 50 in at least three of the computer metrics. UCLA isn’t in the top 50 for any of them. That has to change.
Next: Go Joe Bruin Bracketology - Week 1
I’m always hesitant to use the term “must win,” especially over six weeks away from Selection Sunday. But considering the Bruins’ proven inability to sweep a road trip in conference play, UCLA has to defeat the Washington schools in Pauley this week. They don’t have too many opportunities left to boost their résumé.