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Gonzaga vs. UCLA prediction and odds for NCAA Tournament Sweet 16

By Iain MacMillan

Mar 18, 2023; Sacramento, CA, USA; UCLA Bruins guard Tyger Campbell (10) dribbles the ball while defended by Northwestern Wildcats guard Chase Audige (1) during the second half at Golden 1 Center. Mandatory Credit: Kelley L Cox-USA TODAY Sports
Mar 18, 2023; Sacramento, CA, USA; UCLA Bruins guard Tyger Campbell (10) dribbles the ball while defended by Northwestern Wildcats guard Chase Audige (1) during the second half at Golden 1 Center. Mandatory Credit: Kelley L Cox-USA TODAY Sports /
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In a rematch of the classic 2021 Final Four showdown between Gonzaga and UCLA, the two teams will face-off once again, this time in the Sweet 16.

In 2021, the game went to overtime and the Bulldogs ended up advancing on a Jalen Suggs half court heave. The two teams played against in a neutral sit regular season matchup last season, with Gonzaga taking home the 83-63 win.

UCLA is starting down a 2-5 overall all-time record against Gonzaga, but is now set as a slight favorite in a No. 2 vs. No. 3 matchup.

Let’s dive into the odds for the game and then I’ll give you my best bet.

Gonzaga vs. UCLA odds, spread, and total

Gonzaga vs. UCLA prediction and pick

I think it’s time for UCLA to get its revenge against Gonzaga. The Bruins have the exact right style to take down the Bulldogs.

UCLA and Gonzaga both take the majority of their shots from two-point range, but the Bruins are much better at defending the interior. The Bruins rank 37th in opponent two-point field goal percentage, keeping teams to shooting 46.6% from two-point range. Meanwhile, the Bulldogs rank 218th in opponent two-point field goal percentage, allowing teams to shooting 51% from down low.

UCLA also leads the country in my favorite statistic to look at, extra scoring chances per game. They average +8.2 average scoring chances per game, largely due to their ability to grab offensive rebounds and force turnovers.

The Bulldogs, who rank 175th in defensive efficiency, are going to meet their match on Thursday night. I’ll back UCLA to win and cover in this Sweet 16 showdown.

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.