Go Joe Bruin commences with the early 2019 previews as we look at UCLA football’s first game of the season against the Cincinnati Bearcats.
I’ll just say it, the first season of the Chip Kelly era did not impress but hope shined through towards the end of 2019. The UCLA football team would be in what the casual observer might perceive as a “free fall,” but in reality, the Bruins were just getting their wings.
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The Bruins are ready to break out, I can feel it, but they are a year behind a team that already has things figured out. Though the first game of the season seems like it will be a difficult one for the Bruins, it will start to tell us where the team is going.
Cincinnati Bearcats
Head Coach: Luke Fickell | 2nd Year, 15-10 at Cincinnati
2018 Record: 11-2, 6-2 AAC
2018-19 Bowl Game: Defeated Virginia Tech, 35-31 in the Military Bowl
Game Day Info
Location: Nippert Stadium, Cincinnati, OH
Kickoff: Thursday, August 29, 4 p.m. PT
Broadcast: ESPN
I am not going to lie to you, I want to find faults in the Cincinnati Bearcats, but it is tough. I am not saying they are the second coming of Alabama, but this is a team that is young and continues to rise.
It’s quite the feat head coach Luke Fickell has done in his first two years at the Bearcat helm, and it looks to be getting even better.
Now here is the thing, if you have followed me on Go Joe Bruin, you know that I have been raving about the improvements with the Bruins heading into the second year of Chip Kelly’s tenure. I genuinely believe they have a legitimate shot at beating the Bearcats, but the more I read up or watch video of Cincinnati, the more I can see that they are a team on the move and have a lot of confidence.
Cincinnati’s Five-Year Win Trend
- 2017 – ★★★★★★★★★★★☆☆ 11-2
- 2016 – ★★★★☆☆☆☆☆☆☆☆ 4-8
- 2015 – ★★★★☆☆☆☆☆☆☆☆ 4-8
- 2014 – ★★★★★★★☆☆☆☆☆☆ 7-6
- 2013 – ★★★★★★★★★☆☆☆☆ 9-4
Last year, the Bruins stumbled out of the gate in the very first game of Chip Kelly’s return to college football. It was painful. You could see that the Bruins had the talent to compete, it just wasn’t coming together.
Cincinnati went on to win that game, 26-17, which would contribute their 11 total wins of the season. That loss gave UCLA one of their nine total. Hopefully, that changes this season.
Cincinnati Offense
Let’s get down to brass tacks, the Bearcats have a solid quarterback, and he is going to tear defenses apart. Quarterback Desmond Ridder had a very nice freshman season as his 2,445 passing yards, and 20 touchdowns helped him claim the AAC Freshman of the Year Award. His 583 rushing yards assisted in that honor.
Ridder will look to pass first, but when everything breaks down, which the Bruins need to be mindful of, he will cut right through the defense.
But those yards on the ground were only second to running back Michael Warren II who totaled 1,329 and 19 touchdowns. If Ridder doesn’t run through them, then Warren will. He is a shifty back that can turn on the afterburners if he sees space. UCLA’s run defense improved from the previous season, but they are going to be tested in this first game by UC’s runners.
Cincinnati 2018 Offensive Stats
| Total Offense | Passing Offense | Rushing Offense | Scoring Offense |
|---|---|---|---|
| 458.5 | 219.0 | 239.5 | 34.9 |
Cincy’s top receiver Kahlil Lewis is gone, but the Bruins are going to have an interesting time against Rashad Medaris, Jayshon Jackson and Thomas Geddis who collectively only had 978 yards, but divided up into 14.2 yards per catch.
The thing is, Cincinnati has a lot of players returning with this well-oiled machine and they are going to give UCLA a tough time. It’s no secret that the Bruins severely lacked in the pass rush department and if they do not improve, offenses are going to do whatever they want against this team.
The good news is that the defense has a few more options to lead off in the pass rush. Though Keisean-Lucier South is the top candidate (and we still do not know his status for the 2019 season), Elijah Gates and Idua Isibor along with newcomers Noah Keeter, Jason Harris, and redshirt sophomore Jayce Smalley will try to help out on the edge.
Either way, the Bruins have to apply pressure to take the weight off the linebackers and secondary. Good news, the UCLA LBs are the thickest they have been in several seasons.
Cincinnati Defense
UCLA was able to move the ball down the field towards the end of 2018 which will make this quite the intriguing opener. The trouble is, no matter what Chip Kelly throws at the Bearcats, they will be ready to defend their home turf.
Last year, Cincy was one of the best defensive teams in the nation. They were 8th in points per game allowed (17.2), 11th in total defense (303.5), 13th in rush defense (113.0), and 26th in pass defense (190.5). That’s pretty good, but the Bearcats will lose some of their bite as three starting defensive linemen have moved on. Cortez Broughton, Marquise Copeland, and Kimoni Fitz combined for 153 tackles, 34.0 tackles for a loss and 15.0 sacks, which mean that their newbies on the line and linebackers are going to have to compensate.
Cincinnati 2018 Defensive Stats
| Total Defense | Passing Defense | Rushing Defense | Scoring Defense |
|---|---|---|---|
| 301.7 | 190.5 | 111.2 | 17.2 |
Speaking of linebackers, the Bearcats return one of their top tacklers from last season in Jarell White who had 58 last year (second on the team), seven tackles for a loss and one interception. Cincinnati will also be able to utilize Perry Young who played in just over half of the season, missing games last year due to an injury.
The strength in the defense comes from the secondary who returns a ton of talent. Safety James Wiggins is the star back there as he returns from a 54 tackles (fourth on the team), two TFLs, and four INT season. The Bearcats also have stellar corners in Coby Bryant and Cam Jeffries who combined for 67 total tackles, 20 pass breakups, and 23 passes deflected.
UCLA’s strength is their run game, which they should take advantage of in this contest. With Joshua Kelley looking to continue where he left off, it will be the Bruins best bet to move the ball down the field. If they can establish the run, that will open up the passing game to allow Dorian Thompson-Robinson to get some yards through the air.
Cincinnati Special Teams
The Bearcats have an outstanding punter in their midst as James Smith averaged 44.3 yards per punt last season and was tops in the nation in punt efficiency. The unfortunate thing is that Cincinnati does not necessarily have a placekicker. Though he was only a freshman, Cole Smith has to do better than 5/12, especially from within 40 yards where he went 3/7.
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When it comes to scoring, Cincinnati is either going to have to punch the ball into the endzone or punt it away because they might not get a lot of points from field goals.
Final Analysis
No matter what, the Bruins need to establish a solid gameplan early in this game. It is okay if Kelly wants to tinker with a few things, but he should know exactly what he wants to do in this game before the team lands in Cincinnati.
The run game is going to be essential, and the offense could probably get past this solid Bearcat defense, but they are going to have to endure a lot. Either way, the offense is not what worries us. It is the fact that the Bruins’ defense is coming off a bad year. Though they got worse as the season progressed, they are getting backup which will help them properly execute the aggressive style that is needed to balance out the Bruins’ defense.
So what will happen in this game? With Cincy having the home advantage and Fickell on a roll, I can’t see anything other than a more experienced Bearcat program edging out the up-and-coming Bruins.
Prediction
Cincinnati 32 – UCLA 27