One thing UCLA football fans need to expect is that Chip Kelly is not going to run the same offense he made famous at Oregon but will evolve it with the Bruins and we are seeing that process come to fruition every week.
When Chip Kelly was hired, it is safe to say that the majority of UCLA football fans were expecting him to implement the same type of system he nurtured and developed at Oregon. So far, that has not been the case.
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At Oregon, Kelly’s system was based on the success of running the inside zone read. Kelly’s teams were notorious for running these plays as they were the basis for his system and the Ducks ran it to perfection. With teams looking to defend the zone read, it opened up the rest of the offense for alternate play calling (RPO, screens, sweeps, etc.), which made it even harder to stop Oregon. But why is the zone read (especially inside) so important?
There are three key elements to making the zone read work: (1) blocking which allows the play to happen, (2) the QB reading the defense and (3) the vision of the ball carrier (RB or QB) to find the holes in the line.
What made this work at Oregon, almost from the get-go, was the fact that Kelly had the players to run it. Since he has taken over at UCLA, he has not had that luxury as he has turned over the roster to make it his own. Is it there yet? No, but it is starting to take shape.
Because of this, Kelly has not been running his Oregon offense at UCLA and looking at what he has done in the first seven games, we should no longer expect him to.
One reason for this is because of his personnel. He does not have the players to work the “blur offense”, thusly, he will not use that system. It comes down to execution. If the players cannot do what is asked of them, why would Kelly continue on that path? The first year coach said he wants to win now so he is going to implement a game plan that will help meet that goal. But along with that, Kelly knows that he is being watched and running the same old system that half the college football world has figured out is not going to lead to success (i.e. being figured out in Philadelphia and San Francisco).
Don’t expect the blur offense, expect the obscure offense (cont.)
The success of the running game at Oregon is predicated on the success of the inside zone read. For the record, we have seen a lot of that with UCLA this season, but we have also seen a surfeit of other plays. Kelly has emphasized the run in certain games but has made passing a priority in others. That goes against what he has done at Oregon, but he is no longer at Oregon, he is at UCLA. He has upgraded.
What I am trying to say is that Kelly is evolving his offense, but he is also basing all of this in the zone read. Along with that, Kelly knows that he has to call plays that will put these Bruins in a position to succeed. In the first three games of the season, Kelly was trying out new plays, formations, lineups, and rotations. It took some time, but it finally started to take shape. Additionally, he has kept his game plan fresh and not stuck with the same plan of attack in terms of run/pass ratio and wrinkles (new plays that we have not seen in weeks prior).
Let us take a look at the percentage of runs and passes in the last four games (games where UCLA showed obvious progress).
- Colorado – 56% pass, run 44%
- Washington – 62% pass, 38% run
- California – 29% pass, 71% run
- Arizona – 53% pass, 47% run
The numbers are all over the board. Against Colorado, the Bruins had a lot of success running the ball, yet we all saw a breakdown in the second half as they went away from what was working when they tried to pass the ball more. Yet the following week, Dorian Thompson-Robinson was throwing the ball all over creation and was very successful in doing so, especially in the second half. That was the first game in which the Bruins outscored their opponent after halftime.
But then what happened the next week? UCLA took off with the run, mostly because Joshua Kelley was on fire, so at that point, there was no need to go to the pass. An interesting tidbit in terms of personnel was that Kelley started to use more tight ends. The last time Kelly ran a play without tight ends (10 personnel – one RB, one TE), was against Colorado and was only successful 36% of the time (thank you for the breakdown, Chris Osgood. Check out his weekly play analysis HERE).
Against Cal, there was a tight end in on every play (11, 12 and even 13 – yes, three TEs in on one play). UCLA tried to do the same thing against Arizona, but a wrench was thrown into the system as DTR was knocked out of the game and grad transfer Wilton Speight was inserted in. All of a sudden the flow was altered.
With a new signal caller, came a new scheme. UCLA did not have much success running which shifted the game to pass-reliant. When it came to throwing the ball, the Bruins were more successful and gained more yards. In a way, Kelly went with what was working, though things might have gone in a different direction if DTR was still in the game, especially since he has been allowed to unleash his legs in recent weeks.
Don’t expect the blur offense, expect the obscure offense (cont.)
The point in all of this is that Kelly is making it very difficult for the opposition to know what he is going to do on a weekly basis. He is not giving out signs of the inside zone read on almost every play (as was routine at Oregon). Instead, he is tinkering with his roster and formations to bring out the most with what he has and it is working.
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What is also working is bringing in new formations (that have been slightly altered from standard formations). Early in the season, we saw two-back sets which we have not seen since. Against Colorado, we got to see a few different triple-option sets. Against Arizona, we saw tight formations which emulated bunch sets but was slightly looser groupings near the line. With Utah coming to town this Friday, expect Kelly to have another new look ready for the Utes.
As the title suggests, we should not expect the blur offense (in terms of what was done at Oregon) as this offense is so obscure from an outsider’s perspective. That does not mean that UCLA is going away from running at a certain tempo. In fact, that is still a cornerstone of his offense. In fact, they have been picking up the pace (pun intended) in the last few weeks. According to the S&P+ rankings, UCLA is 26th in the nation in adjusted tempo. Against Arizona, the Bruins ran 80 plays, the most in a game this season.
Kelly is not replicating what he did at Oregon, but he is using those tenets to build his offense at UCLA. This is just the beginning of his evolution. He needs to see what is working as well as who is working. That also leads to his recruiting style, which is an article for another day, so bringing in the pieces that fit his system is key to advancing his ever-changing philosophy.
It will take some time, but as we have said all season, “trust the process”. It seems to be working so far.