Go Joe Bruin looks at the UCLA football team’s 2018 schedule and tries to answer the question, “how hard will the Bruins season really be?”
Hard. Its going to be friggin hard. Chip Kelly hits the ground running as he begins his UCLA football career this fall with a schedule that would break most teams. Luckily, the Bruins have talent and now coaching to help them navigate this treacherous schedule.
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Athlon Sports recently ranked the Pac-12’s toughest non-conference schedules which put UCLA at the top. Bleacher Report has UCLA with the 6th toughest schedule in 2018. ESPN’s football power index (FPI) gives the Bruins the toughest strength of schedule (SOS) in the nation. Needless to say, there is overwhelming evidence that the bruins will have a tough time next season.
So to help analyze just how tough 2018 will be, we will use the numbers ESPN has broken down in their FPI, last season’s records and UCLA’s Pac-12 matchups from 2017.
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But before we do that, let us remind you of what the Bruins will be dealing with next season:
UCLA Football 2018 Schedule
- Sept 1 vs Cincinnati Bearcats
- Sept 8 at Oklahoma Sooners
- Sept 15 vs Fresno State Bulldogs
- Sept 28 at Colorado Buffaloes
- Oct 6 vs Washington Huskies
- Oct 13 at California Golden Bears
- Oct 20 vs Arizona Wildcats
- Oct 26 vs Utah Utes
- Nov 3 at Oregon Ducks
- Nov 10 at Arizona State Sun Devils
- Nov 17 vs USC Trojans
- Nov 24 vs Stanford Cardinal
A few quick notes about the schedule:
- The games against Colorado and Utah will be on a Friday night
- UCLA plays seven games at the Rose Bowl, but they include some of their tougher opponents
- Last season, UCLA was 6-0 at the Rose Bowl, 0-7 on the road/at a neutral site
- UCLA misses Oregon State and Washington State in 2018
- UCLA’s bye is on September 21 (between Fresno State and Colorado)
- ESPN FPI Rank: 48 | Projected W-L: 5.0-7.0 | SOS Rank: 1
- UCLA finished 6-7, 4-5
Now let us look at the teams on an individual basis to see what kind of threat they pose to the Bruins.
Cincinnati Bearcats at the Rose Bowl | September 1
- ESPN FPI Rank: 94
- UCLA projected win %: 88.1
- 2017 Record: 4-8, 2-6 (5th – American East)
Cincinnati returns a lot of offensive starters, but the fact remains they struggled mightily last season. If they expect to win, they are not just going to have try to find a way around Chip Kelly’s new and improved UCLA football team, but they are going to have tp find a way to battle the crowd at the Rose Bowl, which should be a bit more packed than season openers in recent seasons. A good warm up to the season for Kelly and his team who will use this game to implement their system as it get s a lot harder form here. If anything, this could be the easiest game of the season.
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Oklahoma Sooners in Norman, OK | September 8
- ESPN FPI Rank: 9
- UCLA projected win %: 10.2
- 2017 Record: 12-2, 8-1 (1st – Big XII)
Oklahoma is coming off of a Big XII Championship and a spot in the College Football Playoffs, but they will be starting the season with out the recently drafted QB Baker Mayfield. So far there is some uncertainty with his replacement Kyler Murray who has been intrigued by turning pro in baseball. Still, if he starts for the Sooners, they should continue to have success, which is bad for UCLA. Add to the fact that Oklahoma returns a lot of players form their playoff run last season and that this game is in Norman and you can guarantee that this will be a loss.
Fresno State Bulldogs at the Rose Bowl | September 15
- ESPN FPI Rank: 63
- UCLA projected win %: 71.5
- 2017 Record: 10-4, 7-1 (1st – Mountain West – West Div.)
This game is actually hard to get a read on and because of that, makes it a tough game to predict. Last season, former Cal head coach Jeff Tedford did an amazing job making the Bulldogs one of the top teams in the Mountain West. With key wins over BYU, Wyoming, Boise State and Houston, this Bulldog squad is going to be looking to build off that momentum in 2018. Though ESPN gives UCLA a favorable chance at winning this game, it should be a lot closer than expected, whether it is at the Rose Bowl or not.
Colorado Buffaloes in Boulder, CO | September 28 (Friday)
- ESPN FPI Rank: 79
- UCLA projected win %: 67.6
- 2017 Record: 5-7, 4-5 (6th Pac-12 South)
- 2017 Result: UCLA 27 – Colorado 23
After three games, the Bruins should fit a little better into their system, but reality quickly hits with a Friday night affair with Colorado, a team that is not expected to do much this fall. The advantage UCLA has is that they have a bye the week before, so Kelly will be able to make the necessary tweaks to his team after the non-conference schedule. Still, the thin air up in Boulder can create problems, though Kelly should have his Bruins ready for any situation.
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Washington Huskies at the Rose Bowl | October 6
- ESPN FPI Rank: 6
- UCLA projected win %: 48.3
- 2017 Record: 10-3, 7-2 (2nd Pac-12 North)
- 2017 Result: #12 Washington 44 – UCLA 23
The Bruins put up a fight up in Seattle last season (sort of), but that was with Josh Rosen leading the offense. The Bruins also had Jim Mora leading the team, so though they take a step back in the QB department, they take a step up in the coaching category. Still, Kelly is going to need to have a top notch game plan for his Bruins to beat the established Chris Petersen-led Washington Huskies. Having the game at the Rose Bowl will help a little, but this is Washington and it will be a few years before the Bruins can slug it out with the Huskies.
California Golden Bears in Berkeley, CA | October 13
- ESPN FPI Rank: 27
- UCLA projected win %: 27.6
- 2017 Record: 5-7, 2-7 (5th Pac-12 North)
- 2017 Result: UCLA 30 – Cal 27
Though every game at Memorial Coliseum is tough, I do not see this game being extremely difficult for the Bruins. Yes, Cal made some progress last season with first year coach Justin Wilcox, but the Bruins were able to outlast the Golden Bears in 2017. In that game, Devon Modster took over in the second half due to an injury to Josh Rosen, so they have that in their favor. Interestingly enough, UCLA also has Cal’s old DL coach, Jerry Azzinaro, who is now in charge of the Bruins’ defense. Sure, this will be tough, but not as incredibly.
Arizona Wildcats at the Rose Bowl | October 20
- ESPN FPI Rank: 42
- UCLA projected win %: 52.9
- 2017 Record: 7-6, 5-4 (3rd Pac-12 South)
- 2017 Result: Arizona 47 – UCLA 30
Last season, the Wildcats smacked around the Bruins in the desert behind the magic of dual-threat QB Khalil Tate. But now everything UCLA does is with a dual-threat QB, so the UCLA defense should be better prepared (honestly, it was atrocious defensive display by the Bruins). Although things are different in Tucson as Kevin Sumlin and former UCLA OC Noel Mazzone look to try to kick start their era, so this is in no way an easy game. Though not against a Pac-12 powerhouse, this will definitely be a challenging matchup.
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Utah Utes at the Rose Bowl | October 26 (Friday)
- ESPN FPI Rank: 32
- UCLA projected win %: 48.3
- 2017 Record: 7-6, 3-6 (5th Pac-12 South)
- 2017 Result: Utah 48 – UCLA 17
Utah could be a favorite to win the South Division, but at the very least, will be looking to reverse their 3-6 Pac-12 showing from last season. Utah uncharacteristically fell victim to the conference beating on each other and finished 5th in the division. That will not happen this year, which is why they could be the deadliest team in the South, making this hard game even more insurmountable. Add in the fact that they will be playing this game on a Friday, with only six days of prep from their last game against Arizona, and we are going to have an interesting battle with Utah.
Oregon Ducks in Eugene, OR | November 3
- ESPN FPI Rank: 23
- UCLA projected win %: 23.4
- 2017 Record: 7-6, 4-5 (4th Pac-12 North)
- 2017 Result: UCLA 31 – Oregon 14
Just over a week after UCLA travels to Utah, they head north to Oregon, you know, the former program of the current UCLA coach. So not only will the loud-as-all-get-out Autzen Stadium be at full volume for Kelly’s return, but the Ducks look like they are going to have a very good squad, so the toughness factor should be up to 11 on this game.
Arizona State Sun Devils in Tempe, AZ | November 10
- ESPN FPI Rank: 51
- UCLA projected win %: 44.3
- 2017 Record: 7-8, 6-3 (2nd Pac-12 South)
- 2017 Result: UCLA 44 – Arizona State 37
Arizona State has kind of been a laughing stock with the hiring of Herm Edwards, but never count out a team that has everything to prove, especially when they play at home. The Sun Devils and Bruins have had some intense games over the last five season, but that was with both program’s former head coaches. Things will be different this time around, but also remember that this I happening late in the season. The pressure will be on UCLA to win because the next two games are going to really test them.
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USC Trojans at the Rose Bowl | November 17
- ESPN FPI Rank: 15
- UCLA projected win %: 28.1
- 2017 Record: 11-3, 8-1 (1st Pac-12 South)
- 2017 Result: #11 USC 28 – UCLA 23
This will forever be a difficult game, but how difficult will it be? Not only do the Bruins have questions, especially at quarterback with Josh Rosen moving on, but the Trojans will have to figure out what exactly they are going to do in the post-Sam Darnold era. Last season, UCLA almost beat USC, which could occur again, but what if this comes down to coaching? Honestly, without bias (as much as possible), Kelly could have the edge over Clay Helton, who has made some interesting choices as the head coach of the Trojans.
Stanford Cardinal at the Rose Bowl | November 24
- ESPN FPI Rank: 13
- UCLA projected win %: 25.8
- 2017 Record: 9-5, 7-2 (1st Pac-12 North)
- 2017 Result: Stanford 58 – UCLA 34
Ten times has the unfortunate chance to be 11 times. Not only is UCLA’s thorn-in-it-side over the last decade, Stanford, once again set up for the last game of the season, but with the experience of David Shaw and the fact that Stanford inevitably gets better later in the season, it is quite clear why UCLA is not favored to win this game. Hopefully, Kelly’s Bruins start to operate like Stanford and they have a late season revolution.
Either way, it is going to be very difficult. ESPN predicts a 5-7 season for UCLA, which would not be horrible in Kelly’s first season, but knowing what kind of offensive mind he possesses, there could be a few games where Kelly shocks the world. Still, he is going to have a tough first season in Westwood, let us just hope the Bruins come out stronger in the end.