Go Joe Bruin looks at UCLA basketball and the Pac-12 over the last five years, comparing conference records and players sent to the NBA Draft, and the results are similar to the comparison’s made by Jon Wilner and Pac-12 football.
If the title of this article sounds familiar, it should. I recently wrote an article of similar nature about the UCLA football team. The unfortunate part is that when examining UCLA basketball‘s place in the Pac-12, the results are just as underwhelming.
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First off, let me start off by saying that this idea originated from Jon Wilner of the Mercury News’ Pac-12 Hotline. If you have not already, check out his article, One Measure of Pac-12 Coaching: Compare Conference Win Totals to the Number of NFL Draft Picks Produced.
In that piece, he compared conference records among Pac-12 football teams and their NFL Draft picks, and the results, especially when looking at UCLA’s production over the last six years shows severe underachievement on the part of former Bruin coach Jim Mora.
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That got me to thinking about what the comparison between UCLA basketball’s conference records and the amount of players they have sent to the pros.
Using Wilner’s model, we will look at: (1) five-year conference win totals (Wilner used six, but we will stick to five to parallel Steve Alford’s tenure at UCLA), (2) conference win percentage, (3) five-year draft totals, (4) percentage of Pac-12 draft picks and (5) win total relative to draft picks.
Conference Wins by Year (2013-18)
- Arizona: 14+16+12+16+15=73
- Oregon: 10+16+14+13+9=63
- Utah: 11+11+13+13+9=57
- UCLA: 11+15+6+11+12=55
- Stanford: 11+6+8+9+10=44
- Colorado: 8+8+10+7+10=43
- Cal: 2+10+12+7+10=41
- Arizona State: 8+7+5+9+10=39
- USC: 12+10+9+3+2=36
- Washington: 10+2+9+5+9=35
- Oregon State: 7+1+9+8+8=33
- Washington State: 4+6+1+7+3=21
The top two are obvious, but third and fourth are a bit of a shock. Utah has two more victories than UCLA in five years. That 2015-16 season, where the Bruins went 15-17 overall, really gives their conference win total a hit. Now let’s look at the percentage of conference wins.
Conference Game Win Percentage (2013-18)
- Arizona: 81.1%
- Oregon: 70.0%
- Utah: 63.3%
- UCLA: 61.1%
- Stanford: 48.9%
- Colorado: 47.8%
- Cal: 45.6%
- Arizona State: 43.3%
- USC: 40.0%
- Washington: 38.9%
- Oregon State: 36.7%
- Washington State: 23.3%
Once again, Arizona, Oregon and Utah lead the Pac-12. UCLA comes in 4th with only a 61.1% conference win percentage. This is a big reason why they have not won a single regular season conference championship in Alford’s tenure. Sure they came close during the 2016-17 season, but not close enough.
Unfortunately, UCLA basketball fans, these numbers are even more depressing when you look at the number of players sent (and sending) to the NBA.
Steve Alford’s discrepancy in wins and the NBA Draft (cont.)
Before we look at the draft numbers, I want to add that I included six players projected to be taken in the upcoming NBA Draft, so when it is all said and done, the numbers might differ. Right now, the consensus seems to be that the six players potentially heading to the pros will be Rawle Alkins (Arizona), DeAndre Ayton (Arizona), Troy Brown (Oregon), Aaron Holiday (UCLA), Chimezie Metu (USC) and De’Anthony Melton (USC).
So with that in mind, here are the totals…
NBA Draft Picks Since 2013 (pending)
- UCLA: 9
- Arizona: 8
- Oregon: 5
- Cal: 4
- Washington: 4
- Utah: 3
- Stanford: 2
- Colorado: 2
- USC: 2
- Arizona State: 0
- Oregon State: 0
- Washington State: 0
Related Story: UCLA Basketball Assistant David Grace fired…
Percentage of Total Pac-12 Draft Picks since 2013
- UCLA: 23.0%
- Arizona: 20.5%
- Oregon: 12.8%
- Cal: 10.3%
- Washington: 10.3%
- Utah: 7.7%
- Stanford: 5.1%
- Colorado: 5.1%
- USC: 5.1%
- Arizona State: 0.0%
- Oregon State: 0.0%
- Washington State: 0.0%
I can already tell that UCLA fans are not liking what they see. In the last four drafts and projecting the players taken in the 2018 NBA Draft, UCLA will have 9 players going pro, or 23.0% of the entire Pac-12 draft picks, which puts them in first place.
That is more than Arizona, which has won four out of the last five regular season Pac-12 Championships. Once again, UCLA has won zero, but at least they have the talent (rolls eyes). What these numbers indicate is that there is a lack of fundamental coaching, but that has been apparent by the round-the-clock analysis of numbers by several UCLA analysts since the Bruins’ season ended.
Steve Alford’s discrepancy in wins and the NBA Draft (cont.)
Now to get into the last bit of numbers from Wilner’s model:
Conference Wins Compared to Draft Picks
- Arizona: 1st/2nd
- Oregon: 2nd/3rd
- Utah: 3rd/6th
- UCLA: 4th/1st
- Stanford: 5th/T-7th
- Colorado: 6th/T-7th
- Cal: 7th/T-4th
- Arizona State: 8th/T-10th
- USC: 9th/T-7th
- Washington: 10th/T-4th
- Oregon State: 11th/T-10th
- Washington State: 12th/T-10th
I think it is obvious that the UCLA basketball team has underperformed in their five years with Alford at the helm, though you probably already knew that. Just like the football team, it is apparent that the talent is coming to Westwood, but the collective effort falls short of what is expected.
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Another thing that we can take away from this is the fact that both UCLA football and UCLA basketball have nearly the same results, as the football program was 6th in conference wins compared to other Pac-12 schools and 1st in sending Bruins to the pros.
That could indicate that something is wrong in the bigger picture, aka, the UCLA Athletic Department. Whether Mora and Alford are viewed as originally being bad hires or simply lost control and the AD failed to take action, there is obviously something wrong here.
The good news is, the AD has started to correct this behavior as they did one hell of a job landing Chip Kelly to lead the football program into the future. Replacing Mora was a bold move, one that shows the AD is committed to winning. The question now is, can they do the same for the basketball program, the most decorated program in NCAA history?
Last Second Shot
Clearly, Arizona and Oregon have their stuff together (well, sort of, the FBI investigation notwithstanding), but the team that sticks out as one of the more successful is Utah who has only sent three players to the pros in the last five years, but has been the 3rd most victorious in conference. Well played, coach Larry Krystkowiak. After that, there is a whole lot of mediocrity in the conference of champions, especially from Cal and Washington, who each had four players head to the pros, yet drastically underperformed.
Next: The UCLA Basketball All-Time Team
The only difference between the Huskies and Golden Bears compared to the Bruins, is that UCLA has not made a coaching change, whilst the other two have already moved on from their underperforming head coaches.
P.S. Once again, thank you to Jon Wilner of the Mercury News for the idea and the model for this article. Go and read his stuff, you will not regret it.