A lot of Bruins fans are optomistic about UCLA football’s future after hiring Chip Kelly, and they should be. But they should also be realistic about what might happen in 2018.
With Spring Football wrapped up, I started thinking about next season, optomistic about 2018, I remembered the article here on Go Joe Bruin about how ESPN’s FPI predicted that UCLA football would go 5-7 next season, and 48th overall.
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FPI, which stands for Football Power Index, is more or less a power rankings made by ESPN that predicts how well teams will perform in the season.
At first I scoffed at the idea that UCLA would go 5-7 in 2018. After all, we had just hired Chip Kelly and would surely have a 9 win season. But the more I thought about it, the more I realized that UCLA might actually go 5-7 and that Bruin fans shouldn’t panic if that happens.
While I think UCLA will probably do a bit better than that, here’s some things to think about next season.
Strength of schedule
Part of the reason UCLA is predicted to go 5-7 is that the Bruins have one of the most difficult schedules next season
UCLA is predicted to play two teams in the top 10 FPI, #6 Washington and number #9 Oklahoma (In Norman no less), as well as three more in the top 25 with Stanford, SC, and Oregon. I don’t know if its the most difficult schedule in the country but it has to be up there.
Key Departures
To begin with, UCLA’s QB Josh Rosen is going to the NFL as a potential top-5 pick and odds are there’s going to be some drop off at that position.
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I don’t want this to be seen as a knock on our next guy, but Josh was as good as they come and leaves some big shoes to fill especially for the first year in Kelly’s system.
Other notable departures include OL Scott Quessenberry, OT Kolton Miller, WR Jordan Lasley, WR Darren Andrews, DL Matt Dickerson, LB Kenny Young and DB Jaleel Wadood, all of whom were major contributors for the Bruins.
In particular, there’s cause for concern at several offensive line position. There’s an article written by Go Joe Bruin author Mike Crawford that goes in-depth about the situation, but in summary there’s major questions about depth and experience going into the 2018 season.
So in all, if you heard that a 6-7 team was going to lose a top-5 the best quarterback in the country plus a number of other key players, have major questions at offensive line and on top of that have maybe the most difficult schedule in the country, well… you’d probably pick them to go under .500 too. However I don’t quite agree.
Why UCLA will probably go better than 5-7
I think UCLA will finish at .500 or better for a couple of really simple reasons.
1. The defense will likely get better. – Last season UCLA’s defense was bad, like really bad. Bruins were 122nd out of 129 teams in total defense, 127th in first down defense and dead last in rushing defense.
UCLA recruits well, so on paper it should be able to put together a pretty stout defense, which UCLA has had in years past. But even if the defense is just average next season, it’ll be a huge improvement from the year before.
And if that happens, it’ll go a long way in making up for personnel departures.
2. UCLA hired Chip Kelly– Elite coaching matters in college football. To put things into perspective Kelly went 46-7 at Oregon with a 33-3 conference record. Furthermore he did it without having the “best” talent
So with that in mind, lets break down the season…
UCLA Football’s 2018 Schedule
- Sept 1 vs Cincinnati
- Sept 8 at Oklahoma
- Sept 15 vs Fresno State
- Sept 28 at Colorado
- Oct 6 vs Washington
- Oct 13 at California
- Oct 20 vs Arizona
- Oct 26 vs Utah
- Nov 3 at Oregon
- Nov 10 at Arizona State
- Nov 17 vs USC
- Nov 24 vs Stanford
- Let us assume that UCLA loses to Stanford, UW, or Oklahoma.
- Lets also assume that UCLA beats Cincinnati and Fresno State at home, meaning they need to win four more games to get to .500.
Here’s the remaining coaches/schools:
Mike Macintyre (Colorado)
Herm Edwards (ASU, also just lol)
Kevin Sumlin (Arizona)
Mario Cristobal (Oregon, also what a name)
Justin Wilcox (Cal)
Kyle Wittingham (Utah)
Clay Helton (USC)
Do you pick 4 of 7 of these coaches to beat the guy that has a 33-3 conference record? I wouldn’t.
Do I think UCLA is going to go 7-0 against these teams? Of course not, there’s some good teams/coaches on this list, but I think UCLA will be more successful than the 5-7 record the FPI predicts.
Final Thoughts
This is a transition year with an insane schedule, almost completely new staff, a new quarterback, and an offensive line that will likely have some growing pains. Nick Saban and Pete Carroll both got off to 7-6 and 6-6 starts their first seasons at Alabama and USC, respectively, before turning those programs into perennial powerhouses.
I think this season will look a lot like those. There’s probably going to be some ugly moments that make you question whether we made the right hire or if Chip Kelly is overrated. But by the end of our bowl game in December, I think Bruin fans are going to feel really good about this team moving forward.
Trust that we made the right hire, and (try) to be patient!
Next: UCLA Gymnastics brings home Championship 115 behind two perfect 10s
PS: The Greatest Player in UCLA History, TE Caleb Wilson, the hero of the TAMU game, is returning from foot injury after only playing five games last season. So you can ignore all of this because we might just go 15-0. Go Bruins!