The UCLA basketball team has a great recruiting class coming in next summer and a solid core of returners which could lead them to a Pac-12 Championship, especially with USC and Arizona taking some roster hits, but can they actually win some hardware?
Yes. And not just because the UCLA basketball team has great class coming in, but mostly because the Pac-12, which was down this season, could be even worse next season.
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That is not exactly a rave review of the Conference of Champions, but there has not been a lot to support the opinion that they will bounce back.
One thing that UCLA fans can look forward to is a full roster that not only has seven players returning, but six in-coming freshmen.
The Bruins lose Thomas Welsh, Gyorgy Goloman and Ikenna Okwarabizie to graduation and it is projected that Aaron Holiday will leave for the NBA Draft. Though it is possible a few others might test the waters, for now we will assume everyone else stays.
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Final 2017-18 Pac-12 Basketball Standings
- Arizona 14-4, 27-8
- USC 12-6, 24-11
- Utah 11-7, 20-11
- UCLA 11-7, 21-12
- Stanford 11-7, 19-15
- Oregon 10-8, 23-12
- Washington 10-8, 21-12
- Colorado 8-10, 17-15
- Arizona State 8-10, 20-12
- Oregon State 7-11, 16-16
- Washington State 4-14, 12-19
- California 2-16, 8-24
That means UCLA returns Jaylen Hands, Kris WIlkes, Prince Ali, Chris Smith and Alex Olesinski. They also (finally) get to use the services of Jalen Hill and Cody Riley who were suspended this season. Now add in freshmen Moses Brown, Shareef O’Neal, Tyger Campbell, David Singleton III, Jules Bernard and Kenny Nwuba. There is a lot of talent on this team, but how does it stack up against the rest of the Pac-12 and could they dominate the conference next season?
Is the 2018-19 Pac-12 season UCLA’s for the taking? (cont.)
First let’s consider the that the top two teams in the conference this past season, Arizona and USC, are going to have their rosters gutted due to graduation and players leaving for the draft.
Arizona has it the worst among all Pac-12 teams as they are expected to lose Deandre Ayton, Allonzo Trier, Parker Jackson-Cartwright, Dusan Ristic and Rawle Alkins. USC, though not as bad, loses Jordan McLaughlin, Chimezie Metu and Elijah Stewart.
When it comes to in-coming recruiting classes, USC has some help coming in with the #15 recruiting class, though the inexperienced roster could set them back. It is a lot worse for Arizona. Because of the situation with the FBI, they have been left with zero commitments for next season.
Zero. Commitments.
Top 50 Pac-12 Recruiting Classes
- #2 Oregon (4)
- #3 UCLA (6)
- #15 USC (3)
- #19 Arizona State (3)
- #31 Stanford (3)
- #35 Cal (3)
- #37 Washington (4)
- #42 Utah (5)
( ) indicates number of commitments
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As far as other contendors for the crown, Utah and Oregon are possibly the best candidates, but they will also lose some key players. The Utes lose their top two scorers from this season, Justin Bibbins and David Colette who combined for 28.2 ppg. Oregon could lose both Elijah Brown (graduation) and Troy Brown (NBA Draft). Oregon has a fantastic class coming in, which could help boost their stock and, in this writer’s opinion, could be the biggest threat to UCLA next season.
So with all of this in mind, UCLA should be the preseason favorite going into the 2018-19 season But can they actually win the conference? In his five years at the helm, UCLA basketball head coach Steve Alford has only won on Pac-12 Tournament Championship, but no regular season championship. It is easy to say that the Bruins should win the regular season just on talent alone, which is what it might actually come down to as Alford has not shown that he has what it takes to make the Bruins elite.
Is the 2018-19 Pac-12 season UCLA’s for the taking? (cont.)
Yes, recruiting has been fantastic, in recent years (albeit there were concerns about not landing a top-tier point guard with his son Bryce Alford running the 1-spot, an issue many associated with nepotism) but the results have not translated to the win column. The 2016-17 season was by far Alford’s best since being in Westwood, but he could only manage a third place finish in-season and lost to Arizona in the conference tournament semifinals with a roster that included Lonzo Ball, TJ Leaf, Bryce, Isaac Hamilton, Thomas Welsh and Aaron Holiday.
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Because of this, there is not a lot of confidence in the coach winning some hardware. But as previously stated, with Arizona and USC down and the other Pac-12 contenders suffering losses, UCLA could win the conference simply on talent alone.
Though that could buy Alford another year in Westwood, that is worrisome in regards to the seasons beyond 2018-19, especially if the rest of the Pac-12 starts to rebuild and become stronger.
UCLA is in good position to do some damage, but Alford has to do a total reassessment of his program, starting with the way he coaches, especially the defense. After the disastrous 2015-16 season when the Bruins finished 15-17, Alford started in a letter to the Bruin faithful that he would improve his team’s defense. He has not kept that promise.
This season, UCLA was 192nd out of 351 Division I teams in defensive efficiency. That is a decrease from 144th from the 2016-17 season when the Bruins finished 31-5.
The Bruins also have to figure out the issues with consistency. With all the talent they had this season, albeit with depth issues, the Bruins simply did not play to their potential in several games this season. Against the top three teams in the conference, UCLA went 4-1 (.800). Against the bottom eight (every team that finished under them in the standings they went 7-6 (.538).
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Yes, the Pac-12 is UCLA’s for the taking, but it is going to be a lot hard than just showing up to games. They need to start fast, maintain their flow and finish strong. If that can happen, UCLA should run away with the regular season championship, the Pac-12 Tournament and possibly (finally) get past the Sweet Sixteen. But looking at the patterns Alford has set in the last five seasons, I would not place any bets on the Bruins winning anything just yet.