The UCLA basketball team has been shooting from behind the three-point line in Pac-12 play a lot more, but will it help their efforts going forward?
It is no secret that the UCLA basketball team is still trying to find their indentity on offense. The Bruins are heavily relying on veterans Aaron Holiday and Thomas Welsh to carry the load while their youth-laden squad tries to get up to speed and find the UCLA way. In several games this season, there have been excellent collective team efforts, but mostly, it has been the Holiday-Welsh show.
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UCLA started the season trying to emulate the uptempo offense that was executed to perfection with Lonzo Ball last season as the Bruins were first in the nation with 89.8 points per game. They are close to that feat this season with 84.1 ppg (22nd in the nation), though both teams have taken different paths to their high-scoring efforts.
It is clear that these Bruins are a differnet squad from last season with Lonzo… and Bryce Alford and Isaac Hamilton and TJ Leaf… but they are doing a bang up job with Holiday and Welsh (and to an extent Kris Wilkes) as the only consistent scorers.
The big difference is that the Bruins are shifting from the up-and-down style of play to more of an outside shooting game plan, at least that is what we have been witness to in the last few games. The interesting part is that the Bruins lost four good three-point shooters as the aforementioned Ball, Alford and Leaf all shot over 41% last season.
Bruins relying on outside shooting (cont.)
This season, the Bruins are shooting the ball from outside a lot more. In 2016-17, UCLA averaged 23.5 three-point attempts per game while so far this season, they are putting up 25.6. The interesting thing is that Bruins are not doing as well individually from behind the arc.
UCLA’s 3-point shooting percentage leaders (minimum 40 shots taken)
- Prince Ali, .455 (20/44)
- Thomas Welsh, .419 (18/43)
- Jaylen Hands, .414 (24/58)
- Aaron Holiday, .379 (33/87)
- Kris Wilkes, .333 (22/66)
As you can see, only one player is matching the effort of last season’s three-point shooting leaders and making more than 41% of their shots as Ali is making 45.5% of his threes.
This is cause for concern and might have a coach pull the reins back on the shots from downtown, but head coach Steve Alford seems to be going in the opposite direction and letting his players fire away from the arc, especially since Pac-12 play has started. During the non-conference season, the Bruins took 21.9 three-pointers per game. In their first four conference games, the Bruins have put up 26.3.
If UCLA is going to assume an identity similar to the Golden State Warriors and shoot the lights out, so be it, but they need to be cautious of bad shooting games
The good news is that it seems to be working. On the season, UCLA is making 37.3% of their outside shots. Since Pac-12 play started, they are making 41.9%.
This past weekend against Cal, the Bruins had a shooting game for the ages as they attempted 30 three-pointers and made 17 (56.7%). It was the second time this season UCLA shot more three-pointers than two-pointers (their previous effort had them shooting 29 threes in a loss to Cincinnati, only making 37.9%).
If UCLA is going to assume an identity similar to the Golden State Warriors and shoot the lights out, so be it, but they need to be cautious of bad shooting games (because they are not the Golden State Warriors), especially with the decrease in individual three-point shooting percentages from last season.
When the Bruins are on, they are on, but that has been a rarity. UCLA has only shot better than 40.0% from downtown five times this season, all of which were victories. There were five games in which they shot worse than 30.0%, three of which were losses.
Bruins relying on outside shooting (cont.)
So there is a give and take to UCLA’s outside shooting. In Pac-12 play, the Bruins seem to have found their groove, but what happens when the shots do not fall?
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The Bruins are 145th in the nation in offensive rebounds. One of the reasons for this (aside from the lack of boxing out) is that their top rebounder, Welsh who grabs 11.1 total rebounds per game (11th in the nation), is one of the Bruins’ best three-point shooters. Alford should not deny Welsh the chances for open threes, but when no one else is under the basket, a lot of missed outside shots fall right into the hands of UCLA’s opponents.
The Bruins’ next best rebounders, Kris Wilkes (5.4 rpg), Gyorgy Goloman (4.7 rpg) and Alex Olesinski (4.3 rpg), are not nearly as effective as Welsh, as you can see from their stats. So therein lies one problem, if Welsh is away from the rim, who else is available to clean up under the basket?
And even if the Bruins are grabbing rebounds, what if the outside shots are just not there? UCLA does not exactly have an inside game to fall back on so what does Alford do at that point? Play more “hero ball” and force isolation and bad shot selection?
There is still a lot of basketball to be played and the Bruins still look as though they are trying to find an identity. Though this plan seems to fit, they cannot rely on it and need to try and evolve their offense. One way to do that is to try and get an inside game going. Truth be told, that would be a lot easier if the Bruins had Jalen Hill and Cody Riley at their disposal (both have been suspended for the season for their involvement in the shoplifting scandal in China back in November).
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If UCLA wants to make it through Pac-12 play, they are going to have to look for other ways to score as teams are going to take notice of the plethora of shots being taken from behind the arc. Still, if the shot is open, UCLA needs to take it.