It was a prime example of a “beat down” last week against Utah. The UCLA Football team was dominated by the Utes’ running game and were largely ineffective offensively. This week they will take on an ASU team that specializes in running the football and beating you defensively.
Let’s rewind back to late August. Coming into the 2017 season I didn’t think this UCLA Football team was going to be great. I did think they’d be much better than they’ve showed this season and put their ceiling at potentially eight games. Boy was I wrong. The Bruins have been absolutely abysmal against the run, have had their playmakers picked off one by one at the hands of injury ninjas and recently dealt with a little bit of a scandal.
Arizona State on the other hand received low expectations from me. I had plenty of trouble seeing how they’d be able to muster more than a handful of wins. The holes in the roster I believed to be there coupled with what I know about head coach Todd Graham I thought this undersized defense would continue to blitz and subsequently expose their back end to big plays, put their run first offense in a hole and lose plenty of games.
Again I was wrong. The Sun Devils, under the thumb of new defensive coordinator Phil Bennett, have deployed much less pressure this season with far greater defensive success and typically just brought four. The offense, although still a running dominated team, has improved in the air with Manny Wilkins growing as a QB.
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While a better than expected team, ASU has also endured an up and down season with their best win a 13-7 win over the now #5 Washington Huskies. Their worst loss? A 20-30 loss to the San Diego State Aztecs.
The Bruins received some really good news today that should help their offense at the QB position but the Sun Devils have the defensive firepower to get after even the best QBs in the country.
ASU Offense
You may have noticed but the ASU offense is dominated by the run game. Whether it’s Demario Richard, Kalen Ballage or even QB Manny Wilkins, the Sun Devils want to run the football effectively and they do. Richard was an early star as a freshman but has been over taken by Ballage as the “trendier” running back. However that shouldn’t mean the UCLA Football team can forget about him. A talented inside runner who has better than advertised speed, Richard is going to be a handful for a Bruin front seven that’s riddled with injuries.
Ballage is a physical freak and can make anything happen with the ball in his hands. He’s shifty, accelerates quickly and can leap clean over defenders when they try to go low. He tends to bounce more of his runs outside so maintaining contain will be paramount for this Bruin defense. Something they’ve struggled to do.
The QB position is run by Wilkins and he runs this read-option like an old pro. Probably because he’s been battle tested in the PAC-12. Taking control of the job in 2016, Wilkins guided the Sun Devils to a 5-7 record where they lost six of the last seven games on their roster. Oddly enough Wilkins missed two games last season. One against Oregon and one against the UCLA Football team. This will be his first start against the Bruins. Not a strong deep passer despite a strong arm, Wilkins is a rhythm passer who wants to keep things in the short to intermediate range.
The receiver group begins and ends with N’Keal Harry. He’s not draft eligible yet but Harry already has NFL scouts drooling over his size, catching radius and athletic ability. He can win 50/50 jump balls in the endzone with ease, shield defenders with his massive body on back shoulder throws and can pluck the ball out of the sky with his giant mitts. The Sun Devils throw this guy screens because he’s so good with the ball in his hands. Remember these plays? Yeah that’s what he can do.
Kyle Williams the second leading receiver on the team does plenty of what someone like Darren Andrews would have done for this UCLA Football team before his injury. He’s a chainmover and will see a high volume of passes just like Harry. He also gets used consistently as a motion receiver to help Wilkins break down the defense pre-snap. Jalen Harvey is a viable number two receiver giving the Sun Devils another big body outside that can block which is key for this run first offense.
The offensive line relies on the rhythm passing game to keep Wilkins clean but when asked to hold their blocks a little longer they can break down. Their greatest strength is as run blockers where they use the zone blocking scheme employed by the offense to create lanes and cutback options for the runners. Of course penetration is the quickest way to disrupt a play and against some of the better defensive lines in the conference they struggled. They aren’t the PAC-12’s best but they’re capable for this offense.
ASU Defense
Todd Graham likes him some blitzing. That’s no secret to anyone who’s watched ASU in the past. 2017 is giving us a different ASU defense and so far it’s proving to be more effective. Last season the Sun Devils finished 128 out of 128 in terms of passing defenses. They surrendered 33 scores through the air. Although there are three games remaining it seems highly unlikely the Sun Devils will give up 15 more scores to equal that total.
While new defensive coordinator Phil Bennett slowly brings the Sun Devils along, he’s also introducing what feels like a foreign concept to ASU. Getting home with just four guys. You can do that kind of stuff when you have the players they do up front.
Jojo Wicker might have trouble finding a scheme fit in the NFL but he’s a nightmare for college offensive lines. Big and strong enough to over power interior offensive linemen and athletic enough to dip around tackles, Wicker commands extra attention. Tashon Smallwood isn’t built in your typical DT fashion but that’s hasn’t stopped him from clogging up with middle of this defense for what feels like 10 years. On the other side George Lea has come a solid player often taking advantage of the one on one opportunities he see’s because of the attention the other two demand.
DJ Calhoun is a missile of a tackler. Not the biggest guy you’ve ever seen, he wins with anticipation and pre-snap recognition. He’s sticky enough in coverage but makes a living as a downhill run stuffer shooting through gaps. He isn’t alone in the two LB sets that ASU runs either. Christian Sam is rounding back into his 2015 form as a tackle for loss machine with 6.5 TFL and 95 total tackles on the season so far. The two of them form one of the more active LB groups in the PAC-12.
The backend of this defense is still a little bit of a work in progress. Opposing QBs are completing almost 61% against the Sun Devils and will face a UCLA Football QB who so far in 2017 is completing over 63% of his throws. They haven’t been hung out to dry with the defense not blitzing as much but they’re still giving up 7.3 yards per completion on average.
Inexperience still seems to be an issue for this defense that has first year starter Kobe Williams at one end and red-shirt freshman Chase Lucas on the other side. The player to watch here is J’Marcus Rhodes who mans the SPUR position for the Sun Devils. As a DB/LB hybrid Rhodes can come down into the box and gives the DB group a big hitter.
Prediction
The UCLA Football team got a big boost from the news that Josh Rosen would likely suit up for this game and will probably start. He gives the Bruins their best chance to grab a win here and keep their bowl hopes alive. Although ASU has been choosing to rush only four for most of the season they know the Bruins don’t handle the blitzes well and they were able to knock Rosen out of the game last year.
Add into this equation the trouble the UCLA Football defense has had in stopping the run. Ballage and Richard will be able to feast if the Bruins can’t get into the backfield to disrupt plays. Since the Bruins also struggle in getting to the QB quickly they’d be better served getting their hands up to knock passes down. They may not knock down every pass but knowing that Wilkins is a rhythm passer they might be able to force him to double clutch or try to make questionable throws.
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The Bruins have the QB to make this a scorefest that ASU will be hard pressed to keep up in. What they need to find out is do they have the receivers. Still I think the Bruins will be able to find a way to win a curiously low scoring game that has both teams moving the ball but unable to finish drives. UCLA wins 27-24.