The UCLA Football team takes to the road to play the Arizona Wildcats in Tucson. The game takes place Saturday, October 14 at 9 p.m., and will be televised on the Pac-12 Network. Here’s what to expect from the Wildcats.
The UCLA Football team rode into their bye week with a close 27-23 win against a tough Colorado defense. With an extra week of practice, they now travel to Tucson looking to build upon the momentum their last victory created.
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The Bruins currently hold a five-game winning streak against Arizona. The past, however, has no bearing on what will happen on Saturday.
No Pac-12 matchup is a cakewalk, and the Wildcats have the tools to exploit Bruins’ run defense. UCLA v. Arizona should be an exciting game of two 3-2 teams. One will break into the upper-echelon of the Pac-12 South, while the other will fall further into the basement.
Arizona’s Offense
Arizona started the season with Brandon Dawkins under center. He is a dual-threat quarterback, who makes efficient passes allowing him to maintain a 62.3 completion percentage. When he needs to run, his strength, field vision, and shiftiness make it hard to bring him down on the first hit. Tacklers trying to take him dow with poor form are usually unsuccessful.
In Arizona’s 63-16 UTEP, Dawkins went 18-21 for 155 yards and three touchdowns, while gaining 133 yards and scoring three times on the ground. Due to an injury sustained during the Wildcats’ match with Colorado, however, Dawkins may miss the UCLA game, but the Bruins won’t be able to rest on their laurels when it comes to preparing for backup quarterback Khalil Tate.
There is an entire article dedicated to the work Tate put in when taking over for Dawkins against Colorado. He has the speed of an elite running back, easily getting to the edge on outside runs. Once in the open field, his breakaway speed makes him very hard to catch. He also sees holes at the line of scrimmage when running up the middle, and hits them fast to quickly break into the secondary. Tate went 11-12 for 142 yards and a passing touchdown against Colorado, adding 327 yards and four touchdowns with his legs.
Arizona’s Offense (cont.)
It’s no secret at this point that UCLA’s defense is weak against the run. They easily lead the Pac-12 in rushing yards allowed per game with 284. Against dual-threat quarterbacks, however, they have yet to be burned too badly. Kellen Mond, of Texas A&M, and Steven Montez, of Colorado, both have over 150 passing attempts, and exactly 65 rushing attempts.
Each had a crack at UCLA’s defense, and the Bruins held both to a combined average of 135 passing yards and 0.5 touchdowns, along with 81 rushing yards and no touchdowns in these games. Most importantly, UCLA walked away with two wins.
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Outside of Dawkins and Tate, Arizona doesn’t have a huge threat at running back, but boasts great depth at the position. J.J. Taylor and Nick Wilson are the third and fourth leading rushers in terms of yards with 258 and 213 respectively. Nathan Tilford is second amongst all rushers in yards per attempt with nine, but has only carried the ball 12 times for 116 yards.
When it comes to short-yardage and goal line situations, the 5’10” 229 pound Zach Green can pick up tough yards. Two of his three touchdowns have come on 1-yard runs, so the Bruins can’t afford to let the Wildcats get too close to the endzone.
UCLA is fortunate that Arizona’s pass offense is the weakest in the conference. The Wildcats average 175 yards per game on just 25 passing attempts per game. The Bruins secondary has been sturdy, but not always spectacular this season, as they’ve allowed the third most passing touchdowns per game in the Pac-12 with two. To UCLA’s credit, opposing quarterbacks only complete an average of 52% of their passes against them, second lowest in the conference.
Arizona’s leading receiver, Tony Ellison, averages 16 yards per reception and has two touchdowns on the year, so it will be an interesting test to see if the Bruins can shut down his big play ability.
Arizona’s Defense
A popular talking point throughout last season, and all of this one as well, has been the poor play of UCLA’s offensive line. Elements of this are reflected in UCLA’s less than ideal rushing numbers. Through five games, they average just 115 yards per game, third lowers in the Pac-12.
However, this can also be attribute to the fact that the Bruins have had a tough time establishing a primary running back. No UCLA rusher has over 50 attempts, with Soso Jamabo leading the way with 50.
Despite appearing otherwise, Josh Rosen doesn’t get sacked all that often. In the first five games, UCLA’s offensive line has allowed fives sacks, good for just under two per game. True, two sacks a game isn’t ideal, but it’s tied for 57th in the nation, so they are hardly in last place.
This is relevant because, Arizona’s defense isn’t incredibly strong at getting to the quarterback. They have 10 sacks in five games for exactly two per match, with Tony Fields leading the way with three.
Rosen with time is a very dangerous thing, and he should have a fair share of it throughout the match. When trying to find an open target, he will be going against a Wildcats pass defense that allows 256 yards per game through the air. However, Arizona only allows an average of one touchdown pass per game, and has recorded five interceptions in five games, making the likelihood of Rosen tossing one more likely.
Jamabo has been given the lion share of the carries amongst the running back, and if there was a time for him to establish himself as UCLA’s permanent primary back, it would be against Arizona. They allow 154 rushing yards per game, and have allowed nine touchdowns on the ground.
The Wildcats do have players at all different levels of the defense who can blow up plays in the backfield. The linebacker dup of Fields and Colin Schooler, Kylan Wilborn at defensive end, and Scottie Young Jr. at the safety position, all have three tackles for a loss, so UCLA’s offensive line has to be ready for blitz packages that take advantage of the ballhawks Arizona has.
Punting against the Wildcats is always a gamble, as return specialist Shun Brown has the potential to take any punt back to the house. He is tied for second in the nation with two punt return touchdowns, and averages 23.5 yards per return attempt.
Final Word
Be prepared for a high-scoring affair, as neither defense is equipped to handle the opposing offense’s’ best weapons. Either Dawkins or Tate will run wild against UCLA, and Rosen will shred Arizona’s secondary.
The difference will come from UCLA’s secondary. Freshman Darnay Holmes has looked very comfortable out on the field, recording a pick-six and two defended passes. Adarius Pickett and Octavius Spencer round out the trio to notch an interception, while Nate Meadors and Jaleel Wadood have defended against five and three passes apiece.
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This unit will force the Wildcats to become entirely reliant on the run, ultimately leading to their defeat. This game will be close, but not a nail-bitter, as Jamabo cements his place as the Bruins’ starting running back, scoring at least one touchdown in the game. This will cause Arizona to honor the run, and open passes up for Rosen.
Final Score:
UCLA 38 – Arizona 27