The UCLA Football team begins Pac-12 play against the Stanford Cardinal, a team they have not defeated in 9 tries. Will this year be different or more of the same?
Many moons have passed since the UCLA Football (2-1) team last defeated the Stanford Cardinal (1-2). It was Rick Neuheisel‘s first year and he took down Jim Harbaugh‘s Cardinal 23-20 way back in 2008.
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Needless to say, both teams weren’t great, though the Bruins were slightly better in that victory. Since then, Stanford has gotten exponentially better.
"Did You Know… The last time UCLA beat Stanford, Miley Cyrus was still Hannah Montana, Barack Obama had not yet been elected president, Twilight, Kung Fu Panda and Wall-E were all in theaters, ‘Mad Men’ was in its 2nd season, Tim Tebow, Urban Meyer, Charlie Strong and Dan Mullen were all at Florida, the LA Kings were four years from away from winning their first Stanley Cup and the Pac-12 was still… the Pac-10."
That last victory occurred nine years ago. It has been a decade of dominance by the Cardinal and the majority of those games were not even close. But things are different this season, and I am not trying to say this is UCLA’s year, but things are really quite different. Oddly different.
Neither team is ranked, both are having problems on one side of the ball and there is a sense that this game could be sloppy with different parts of this game. Let’s find out why…
Stanford Cardinal Offense
In their first game, Stanford travelled to Australia and pummeled Rice, 62-7. Two weeks later they battle it out with USC and lost 42-24. The narrative seems to be “USC was just the better team this year.” That narrative changed to “What is wrong with Stanford?” after they lost to San Diego State University, 20-17.
Quarteback Keller Chryst looked solid against Rice, held his own against USC and totally dropped the ball against SDSU, or should I say, gave the ball away as he had two interceptions. He also went 9/20 for 72 yards. SDSU has a good defense, but not great, and yet they were able to limit Stanford to under 100 yards through the air.
The run game is a different story as the Cardinal has one of the best running backs in the nation as Bryce Love has a total of 524 yards (2nd in NCAA) and 4 touchdowns. And here is the minblowing stat, Love averages 12.2 yards per carry. PER CARRY!
That does not bode well for the UCLA run defense which is once again having difficulties (though surprisingly, against Memphis, UCLA had better run defense (162) than pass defense which gave up 398 yards).
My guess, because it happens every year, is Stanford will grind down UCLA’s “bend but don’t break” defense and go right after some of the Bruins’ younger players who are filling in for several injured defensemen.
Stanford Cardinal Defense
Stanford’s offense is still solid, but they are not what they have been in past years, at least that is what it seems like through three games. Disregarding Rice, Stanford gave up 623 yards to USC (316 passing, 307 rushing) and 353 against SDSU (187 passing, 166 rushing).
The Cardinal defensive line has been pushed around quite a bit lately. SB Nations’s Rule of Tree details the troubles the D-line had against SDSU as they constantly got pushed back. One of the more telling lines from this article reveals a possible weakness UCLa can exploit, “The defensive line gets pushed back three or four yards before even making contact with the runner.” If you have been closely paying attention to UCLA’s run game this season, it has slowly been improving as they are averaging 121.7 yards per game, better than the 84.3 from last season.
"Did You Know… Stanford is no longer in Palo Alto. It is now in Stanford, CA. Weird."
The Bruins run by committee and with OC Jedd Fisch’s tendency to be deceptive, this could work in UCLA’s favor. It comes down to how the D-line plays against UCLA’s O-line. Stanford always seems to dominate in the trenches against UCLA, so I do not expect Stanford to get pushed around, but hey, this season is wacky, who knows what will happen.
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Stanford could limit the run, but how will they do against Josh Rosen and the passing game? Stanford’s total defense is pretty pedestrian, stat-wise, as they give up 407.3 yards per game (8th in the Pac-12), 199.3 of which were given up through the air (6th in the Pac-12).
The question here is, can they limit the 442.3 yards UCLA puts through the air? If Stanford wants to disrupt the Bruins’ passing game, they have to pressure Rosen. We saw against Memphis that Rosen, though deadly, can be put in awkward situations and make bad choices.
The Cardinal bring pressure from different areas and like UCLA, Stanford has 9 sacks (3rd in the Pac-12) so far. Nine players have at least a shared sack and 15 at least share a tackle for a loss. If Stanford tries to go after Rosen, DE Harrison Phillips, DE Eric Cotton and LB Casey Toohill could be a couple players we see in the Bruin backfield.
Though the Cardinal secondary is good, they need to be extra sharp against Rosen who has an NCAA leading 1,283 passing yards and 13 touchdowns per game. Rosen can throw a ball into a window slightly bigger than the ball itself, so the Stanford DBs need to play an almost perfect game.
Final Word
There is no reason why anyone would pick UCLA to beat Stanford, considering the last nine contests. David Shaw always seems to know how to have his team play again Jim Mora. Even if Stanford struggles in the game before and after they play the Bruins, they always seem to play like champions against UCLA.
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Like I stated above, there are several factors that give this game a weird vibe where (wait for it)… so anything can happen. But the way these teams matchup, it is going to be interesting to see how UCLA’s D handles Stanford’s offense and how the Cardinal defense takes on Rosen and his gang. Both teams have advantages that could lead them to victory, but they also have weaknesses that could make them stumble before the clock hits 00:00.
Prediction
What will probably happen: Stanford 28 – UCLA 24
What I think will happen: UCLA 38 – Stanford 32