There are just 20 days left until the Bruins kick off their 2017 season. While some people say that numbers don’t tell the entire story, many of the Bruins’ stats revealed why last season was a struggle. Here are some numbers that made the Bruins what they were and a few that may tell us what to expect this year.
20 – Total catches by Eldridge Massington in 2016
The former 4 star recruit out of West Mesquite High School (TX) came into UCLA with hopes he would be the next great Bruins’ wide receiver. In his freshman year, Massington showed a lot of promise catching 25 passes for 367 yards and three touchdowns.
Unfortunately, those three numbers did not improve in his next two years. In fact, Massington has not caught a touchdown since the final game of the 2014 season. On the bright side, it was against USC, so he’ll always have that.
Massington appeared in eight games last year totaling 285 receiving yards. His 14.3 receiving yards per catch was nice but it would be interesting to see if he could keep up that same production with more catches.
Hopefully his senior season will be the breakout year Bruins’ fans have been longing for.
19.8 – First downs per game for the Bruins last year
When a team can’t sustain a drive, it makes it difficult to score and in turn, win games. This lack of ball movement explains why the Bruins had the second most punts (73) in the PAC-12 last year.
Much of this was due to the fact that UCLA struggled mightily to move the ball on the ground. Couple that with Josh Rosen’s injury, and it’s no wonder the Bruins’ ranked 10th in the PAC-12 in first downs per game.
This year with a healthy Rosen and a “surely can’t be worse” rushing attack, I expect the Bruins to do better in this department.
18 – Tackles for losses by Takkarist McKinley
Last year McKinley burst onto the PAC-12 and national scene collecting 10.0 sacks and 61 total tackles in his senior year. He became one of the Bruins’ best players on defense, making a presence in every game he played. Takk recorded five or more tackles in seven of the eleven games he played last year.
His best two games were against Utah and Cal were had had three sacks and 11 tackles, respectively. His play last year helped him to be chosen in the first round of the NFL Draft by the Atlanta Falcons.
Coach Mora and staff must look hard this summer to try to replace Tak’s huge presence on defense.
17 -Solo tackles by LB Josh Woods
When Josh Woods showed up at UCLA, many were looking at him to be an instant star. He had the size (6’2’’ 220 lbs) and the talent (9th ranked ILB in the country). Now the man from Upland, California has a chance to display his skills on the big PAC-12 stage.
After playing in just one game in an injury shortened 2015 season, Woods came back strong in 2016. In nine games, Woods recorded 26 total tackles, including 17 solo and 1.5 for a loss.
Woods and the Bruins hope he can build on last season’s success and continue to improve this year. With a continued strong showing during summer camp, perhaps Woods will be the one to replace some of the impact and pressure that McKinley’s provided.
Playing from the strong side LB position, Woods will get a chance to use his athleticism to cover receivers but also be a highly valued blitzer.
16 – Interceptions thrown by UCLA quarterbacks last year
Yes, I know that this stat is a bit misleading. Josh Rosen was responsible for just five interceptions before going down with a shoulder injury. The remaining 11 interceptions were thrown by backup Mike Fafaul. The 16 total interceptions were good enough for last in the PAC-12.
When Fafaul was thrown in after Rosen’s injury, he looked as if he was in over his head. And at many times he was. Of course, it didn’t help that defenses didn’t have to pay much attention to the Bruins’ rushing attack and could sit back and wait for the pass.
Last year’s inflated interception number should be less this season as long as Rosen can stay healthy. Even if he does go down again, freshman backup quarterback Devon Modster should be able to take over in a more than competent role.
15 – The number being worn by highly touted freshman Jaelan Phillips
Phillips is coming into UCLA this season as one of most talented players in recent history. A 5-star recruit, Phillips comes in looking to make a huge impact from game one.
He has already impressed the Bruins’ staff this summer during practice and is looking to keep that same intensity when UCLA opens up at home against Texas A&M.
At 6’5″ 255 lbs, the defensive end out of Redlands East Valley (CA) looks like a beast on the field. Combine his size with his speed (4.6 40 yard dash) and opponents will certainly be feeling the pressure he can bring.
Phillips is already seeing plenty of run with the first team defense so don’t be surprised to hear this young man’s name being called plenty of times during games.
14 – Total points scored against USC last year
Coming into last year’s crosstown rivalry game, the Bruins were 4-6 and needed to win their final two games to become bowl eligible. The first step would be to beat USC who at the time were winners of six in a row.
With the game being played at The Rose Bowl, the Bruins and their fans were holding out hope that their team had some magic left in their tank to beat the Trojans and save their season.
After the first quarter, UCLA was hanging in and even had a 14-7 lead after a Mike Fafaul touchdown pass to Jordan Lasley with 13:28 left in the second quarter.
But that would be it for the Bruins.
USC went on to score 29 straight points to defeat the Bruins 36-14, crushing any hopes of receiving a bowl invitation. (Unless they were hoping for that coveted bowl invite as a 5-7 team)
This year with a healthy Rosen, the Bruins hope their game against USC will not only be more competitive but will have even more meaning. Perhaps a PAC-12 South Championship on the line?
13 – Rushing touchdowns scored last season
It’s no secret that UCLA had a lot of trouble running the ball last year. But not only did they not run the ball well, they couldn’t run into the end zone. Their 13 rushing touchdowns put them 111th in FBS with Bolu Olorunfunmi leading the team with 4.
As mentioned before, this lack of a dangerous rushing attack allowed defenses sit back and wait for the pass.
Out of their 13 total rushing touchdowns, 11 of them came from the red zone. This means that the Bruins were not breaking any big runs into the end zone. In fact, their longest rushing touchdown last year was a 26-yard jet sweep by Darren Andrews (a wide receiver) against Arizona.
Any sort of running attack will make the Bruins’ offense more balanced and a more dangerous team.
12.3 – Soso Jamabo average yards per catch
With 16 receptions, Jamabo was able to be a very effective receiver. Of all the returning Bruins, Jamabo comes back with the fifth most receptions.
With a crowded backfield and at least two other running backs already committed to the Bruins for 2018, Mora and staff may think about moving the former five-star recruit to wide receiver. He has shown the ability to catch the ball and, combine that with his size (6’2” 210 lbs), Jamabo could turn into a serious receiving threat in his last two years at UCLA.
If not, perhaps Mora can utilize Jamabo catching the ball out of the backfield more often this year.
11 – Red Zone rushing TD last year
This number coincides with the small number of rushing touchdowns for the year. On the ground, the Bruins simply couldn’t push the ball into the end zone. Their 11 red zone touchdowns on the ground were tied for 113th in FBS.
When an opposing team knows you can’t run the ball in the red zone, they can look for and defend the short pass.
In what seems to be a recurring theme, if Rosen is healthy this year the number will rise.
10 – Touchdowns thrown by Josh Rosen during his injury shortened season
After a rough start last year against Texas A&M (1 TD, 3 INTs), Rosen dramatically improved in his next five games. Against three PAC-12 opponents, a tough BYU team, and improved UNLV squad, Rosen threw 9 touchdowns and just 2 interceptions. He would not play another snap after his injury against Arizona State.
It’s safe to say that a full, healthy junior season, Rosen will return to at least the form that we saw in his freshman year.
With a big question mark still on the Bruins’ rushing game, it’s also safe to say that for the Bruins to have a successful season, the quarterback from Manhattan Beach will need to at least double his touchdown total from last year.
9 – Missed field goals by UCLA kickers last year
JJ Molson came to UCLA last year trying to fill the shoes left by 2015 Consensus All American and Lou Groza Award winner Ka’imi Fairbairn.
In his senior year, Fairbairn was a perfect 47 for 47 on extra points and 20 for 24 on field goals.
Coming in, Molson had a great deal of hype as he was rated one of the best three kickers in North America (he is from Canada).
But Molson struggled in his first year hitting just 12 of 20 field goals (Andrew Strauch missed an additional field goal attempt). Their .591 make percentage was the worst in the PAC-12 and often times put Mora in a situation where instead of attempting a long field goal, the Bruins would go for it on fourth down.
This year the Bruins would love to rely on Molson as a kicker that can be automatic (if not at least reliable) from 40-45 yards.
8 – Career rushing touchdowns for senior Nate Starks
Last year Nate Starks lead the Bruins in rushing attempts and was second in rushing yards. In three years at UCLA, the senior running back has been used sparingly, only averaging 5.3 carries a game for his career.
But with the Bruins’ rushing difficulties last year, a strong summer camp by Starks (or any Bruin running back for that matter) could propel him up to the top of the running back corp.
There are a number of younger, possibly more talented backs on the roster but Starks is a tested veteran who has seen almost every type of defense, and every type of situational football. His leadership and experience make him a valued member of this positional group.
If Starks is used as the primary running back this year, he could see his career rushing touchdown total at least double.
7 – Games decided by 10 points or less last year
In a year where they found themselves without Josh Rosen, the Bruins were still surprisingly competitive in a number of games. Unfortunately, in these seven games, the Bruins were just 1-6. If UCLA were able to win just two of those games, it would have propelled them into a bowl game.
But poor defense (giving up 31.1 points over their last seven games), poor offense (scoring 21 points or less seven times), or a combination of both led the Bruins to lose these close games.
A defense that is one year older, an elite level quarterback, and three winnable games to start the season may build the confidence the Bruins need to win close games at the end of the season. Those wins may be the difference between a winning season, a bowl game, or Mora keeping his job.
6 – Home games for the Bruins this year
The Bruins open up their 2017 season with two home games. The first one is a rematch against a Texas A&M team that beat UCLA in overtime last year. The next will be versus an improved Hawaii team that went to a bowl game for the first time in six years last year.
Their schedule does not get easier after that with visits from a Colorado team that had their highest win total (10) since 2001 and an Oregon team looking to bounce back from a down year last season.
If the Bruins can get through that stretch with just one loss, they have two beatable opponents (Arizona State and Cal) to end their home schedule.
With trips to Stanford, Washington, Utah, and USC, the Bruins must take care of business at home. Anything less than 5-1 at home may result in another disappointing season.
5 – Receiving touchdowns for Jordan Lasley last year
Lasley’ five receiving touchdowns from last year lead the crop of returning receivers. But after Lasley, Darren Andrews (4), Kenneth Walker III (4) no returning Bruin has more than one.
This stat can’t be blamed completely on the fact that Rosen went down with an injury. When Fafaul came in, he was still able to throw 12 touchdowns in eight games.
A possible cause is a number of drives cut short by dropped passes and numerous punts. This often kept the offense from staying on the field for any long period of time.
While there might not be a lot of production returning with the Bruins’ receivers, the new offense by Jedd Fisch will hopefully allow for the Bruins to possess the ball for longer periods of time. Thus allowing them to complete more passes and get into a better offensive flow.
4 – Win total from last year
It’s not breaking news that the Bruins struggled last year. In a season that saw them win just four games, only one win (BYU) against a team with a winning record.
Sure, losing Rosen was a huge shot to take in the middle of the season but I think the main reason the Bruins had so much trouble last season was their lack of a running game.
Ranking second to last in the country in rushing yards per game is just not acceptable for a school like UCLA. If the coaches can figure out how to use their running backs, seven, eight, or even nine wins could become a realistic number this year.
Another year like the last and the Bruins will find themselves towards the bottom of the PAC-12 and Mora in the hot seat.
3 – Actually 2.93 but nevertheless, UCLA will need to improve as the nation’s 2nd worst in yards per rush average
Perhaps it was the loss of Rosen or the shuffling of offensive linemen due to injuries but not one UCLA running back could get it going last year. When a team’s top rusher (Jamabo) has a season total of 321 rushing yards, it’s not going to be good.
To put that in perspective, last year three players had more than 321 rushing yards in a single game including Utah’s Joe Williams against UCLA.
Not being able to average three yards a carry isn’t all on the running backs. The offensive line needs to block and open up holes or maybe it was the offense that Kennedy Polamalu ran last year.
I can only hope that new OC Jed Fisch will install an offense that will play to the strengths on his running backs and offensive line.
2 – Sacks per game allowed by the Bruins last year
Not terrible compared to the rest of FBS (tied for 57th) but UCLA will want to keep Rosen off his back as much as possible.
Most of the key offensive linemen return, except for Conor McDermott, so experience will be on the Bruins’ side.
Some might even argue that before his injury, Kolton Miller seemed to be the more talented of the two tackles. He’s healthy now and has moved over to the left side of the line. Protecting Rosen’s blindside will be no easy task but Miller has the size, athleticism and skill to get it done at a high level.
Rosen isn’t the most mobile quarterback so that fact will always play into how many time he gets taken down. But if Rosen has enough time to go through his progressions, he should be able to find an open receiver or at worst tuck the ball and get a yard or two.
1 – Quarterbacks on the current roster with any Division 1 game experience
As mentioned in this article, the key to the Bruins’ success hinges on Josh Rosen staying healthy. Last year when he was injured, an inexperienced Mike Fafaul was put in and the results were not good.
Even though Fafaul was not a Division 1 starting quarterback, he had four years of experience in the Bruins’ program.
This year, beyond Rosen, the Bruins’ quarterbacking corp is as inexperienced as it gets.
Devon Modster, though a great athlete with huge potential, has yet to take a snap in a real D1 game.
Behind Modster is Matt Lynch, Austin Burton, and a small group of others all with “Freshman” next to their name. Yes, Modster and Lynch are both redshirt freshman but still…
The theme of most of these stats has revolved around the phrase “If Josh Rosen is healthy…”
Next: The Top 10 UCLA QBs of All-Time
I believe the Bruins can be really good this year but it could also look as ugly as last year. A young defense could give up a lot of big plays. The running backs could again be stifled by opposing defenses. But if Josh Rosen is healthy…