Though the UCLA Basketball team fell short of a Pac-12 Tournament Championship as they lost to Arizona in the Pac-12 semifinal, there is reason for optimism.
Last night’s Pac-12 semifinal between the Arizona and UCLA Basketball teams was past my bedtime, so I didn’t watch and only found out this morning that we lost. I’ve been mulling over the Bruins’ predicament all day, and I’m far from despondent. Here’s why:
1. The most immediate (and most tenuous) reason is that we have a stake in who wins the conference final tonight. Anathema as it may be to consider, I think UCLA fans have to root hard for Arizona over Oregon.
If Oregon wins, then both teams will have airtight cases to be seeded over UCLA. Oregon will likely get a #1 seed, and Arizona will have just demonstrated why it deserves the #2 in the West over UCLA.
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However, if Arizona wins, they likely get the #1 seed. By virtue of having lost to Gonzaga in December, though, the 32-1 Zags should get the #1 seed out West. This leaves the #2 seed in the West open for UCLA or Oregon. Simply put, the Bruins have a better case if the alternative is Oregon than they do if the alternative is Arizona. Go Cats!
2. Because of the number of contending teams that all lost early in their conference tournaments, UCLA did not cost themselves as much last night as it may seem.
Kansas and Baylor both lost on Thursday. Purdue lost on Friday. Louisville lost to Duke Friday, and UNC did the same yesterday. Virginia and Florida both lost on Friday.
Of course, this doesn’t automatically put UCLA above any or all of these teams, but it serves as a reminder that there’s no absolute definition of a 2-seed. It’s all relative, and UCLA did not lose ground this weekend given the number of national competitors who also lost.
3. Kentucky and Michigan each making deep runs in their conference tournaments boosts UCLA’s strength of schedule.
Reasons For Optimism, cont.
4. Regardless of how the Bruins are seeded tomorrow, I don’t think this team is as bad as it looked last night (and certainly not as bad as some of y’all on twitter make it sound with your apocalyptic moaning).
Remember that Arizona and USC might be the two teams in the country built to match up best against UCLA. Their long, athletic guards wreak havoc on defense and disrupt the ball and off-ball movement that are the key to UCLA’s nation-leading offense. They force turnovers and break the Bruins’ rhythm to create transition buckets against an already suspect Bruin defense.
Of the teams in the tournament field, I can think of two, maybe three others in the top echelon who are built to challenge the Bruins in this way: Villanova, Kentucky, and Louisville.
Even then, the formula isn’t magic. UCLA still went 2-1 against USC because the Trojans lack the talent to stop the Bruins from going inside and letting Thomas Welsh and TJ Leaf go to work. Arizona is a much more talented team than USC (which is why UCLA went 1-2 against the Wildcats), but even they proved beatable. There’s no guarantee that UCLA will have to face one or more of these guard-led defenses in the tournament, but even if they do, they’ve proven they can beat them.
5. UCLA’s defense is not as bad as you’ll hear over and over this week. It’s not great, but when the guys crash the boards and Steve Alford makes judicious use of the zone, the Bruins are more than capable of holding their own against most offenses in the country.
Where they get in trouble is when the offense turns the ball over and gives the opponent easy transition buckets. That was the story these last two games. On Friday, the defense was able to minimize that damage. Last night, not so much. The good news is that there’s no situation remaining in which the defense will have to be on point two nights in a row.
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6. Lastly, regression to the mean works both ways. Just like the Bruins weren’t going to shoot 70% from beyond the arc all season, they’re also unlikely to repeat the 16% debacle from last night. Three games in a row of failing to crack 80 points is not who this team is. I don’t care who the opponent is, UCLA is unlikely to look this bad on offense going forward.