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Go Joe Bruin Bracketology – Update 5

By Jake Liker

Feb 27, 2016; Stanford, CA, USA; UCLA Bruins guard Isaac Hamilton (10) and guard Bryce Alford (20) talk during the game against the Stanford Cardinal in the 2nd half at Maples Pavilion. Mandatory Credit: John Hefti-USA TODAY Sports
Feb 27, 2016; Stanford, CA, USA; UCLA Bruins guard Isaac Hamilton (10) and guard Bryce Alford (20) talk during the game against the Stanford Cardinal in the 2nd half at Maples Pavilion. Mandatory Credit: John Hefti-USA TODAY Sports /
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Feb 27, 2016; Providence, RI, USA; Providence Friars forward Ben Bentil (back) and guard Kris Dunn (3) celebrate during the second half at Dunkin Donuts Center. Mandatory Credit: Mark L. Baer-USA TODAY Sports
Feb 27, 2016; Providence, RI, USA; Providence Friars forward Ben Bentil (back) and guard Kris Dunn (3) celebrate during the second half at Dunkin Donuts Center. Mandatory Credit: Mark L. Baer-USA TODAY Sports /

The Breakdown

This week, 120 teams were evaluated. The requirements for evaluation are unchanged from the last iteration. To be considered for the tournament this week, a team must meet at least one of the following criteria:

  1. Be ranked top 100 in RPI
  2. Be ranked top 100 in KenPom, Jeff Sagarin, and BPI
  3. Be projected to earn their conference’s automatic bid by having the fewest number of losses in conference play. In the event of a tie, RPI is used as the tiebreaker.
The scores for all 120 teams evaluated by the formula. 0.00 is the cutoff for at-large bids. UCLA is 68th. Credit: Jake Liker
The scores for all 120 teams evaluated by the formula. 0.00 is the cutoff for at-large bids. UCLA is 68th. Credit: Jake Liker /

This week’s observations:

  • Despite all the changes in the past two weeks, there is one constant: UCLA is still 68th, except they’ve gone from -49.32 to -71.66
  • The committee has some serious discussing to do if Arkansas-Little Rock doesn’t win the Sun Belt conference tournament
  • Yes, Providence and Syracuse are tied. This would normally be inconsequential, but not here, where one of them must play in the First Four. Tiebreaker goes to better RPI (Friars 45th vs. Orange 57th)
  • This week’s tweak to the formula placed heavier emphasis on conference strength, because UALR will never be a 9-seed, and no committee member would put Valparaiso over Syracuse
  • The other major tweak placed less importance on notable results. Sorry, Oregon State (3 top 25 wins, 6 top 50 wins)
  • Out of the tournament: Florida and Florida State. In the tournament: North Florida
  • Tennessee failed to qualify for evaluation, but the Volunteer state still gets representation from Middle Tennessee and East Tennessee State
  • There’s quite a battle brewing between Virginia and Oklahoma for the fourth and final 1-seed

Next: UCLA outlook/Bubble Watch