Credit: Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports

The Pac-12 Conference Tournament for men’s basketball is 2 ½ weeks away. If the season ended today, Oregon would be the #1 seed, Arizona #2, UCLA #3 and California #4. The top four seeds in the tourney get a first-round bye.

In the next tier of the tourney, ASU would be seeded #5, Colorado #6, USC #7 and Washington #8. And rounding out the Pac, Stanford would be #9, Utah #10, OSU #11 and WSU #12.

Oregon is the only team that controls its own destiny and can guarantee itself the #1 seed and a Pac-12 regular season title simply by winning out. UCLA and Arizona have to win out too, but also need some help in the form of Oregon losing one more time to secure the #1 seed. The Bruins and Wildcats have both lost to Oregon head-to-head and do not play the Ducks again this season.

Cal needs Oregon, UCLA and Arizona to all lose at least one more time to secure the #1 seed. The Golden Bears actually have the easiest remaining schedule of the four “Top Tier” teams (tiers broken down below) with three home games against middle or bottom tier teams. Should all four Top Tier teams end the season tied, California would be the likely one seed as they split with UCLA, are undefeated against Oregon and Arizona and have the best record against Top Tier teams.

Theoretically, ASU, Colorado and USC all have a chance to tie for the best record in the PAC-12 in the event all four Top Tier teams completely tank, but the likelihood of that is so remote it’s not worth considering. So, the battle for the #1 seed is truly between the four Top Tier teams.

UCLA’s path to a #1 seed is tough, but not impossible. Winning out is imperative. Home games against the two Arizona schools loom large this week. Seeking vengeance against ASU should provide plenty of motivation, and then a nationally broadcast game against the Wildcats (with ESPN College Gameday on hand)  should have Pauley Pavilion rocking.

The Bruins absolutely have to hold serve at home. If they do, then the criticality of the trip to Washington the following week increases dramatically. If there’s a gimme win to be had on the road in the Pac -12, it’s in Pullman against Washington State. The Bruins should be able to win there. And then a tough, but beatable, Washington remains in the season finale. Winning on the Huskies’ home court is never a given, but if the Bruins are up for the challenge,  it’s entirely possible that UCLA can win the Pac-1 2 regular season title. A road trip for Oregon to Colorado could provide the final stumbling block for the Ducks that the Bruins need to seal the deal.
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PAC-12 TOP TIER
Oregon 11-4—Three games left: home against OSU, at Colorado and at Utah.
Arizona 11-4—Three games left: at USC, at UCLA and home against ASU.
UCLA 10-4—Four games left: home against ASU, home against Arizona, at WSU and at Washington.
California 10-5 —Three games left: all at home against Utah, Colorado and Stanford.

PAC-12 MIDDLE TIER
Arizona State 9-6—Three games left: at UCLA, at USC and at Arizona.
Colorado 8-6—Four games left: at Stanford, at Cal., home against Oregon and home against OSU.
USC 7-7—Four games left: home against Arizona, home against ASU, at Washington and at WSU.
Washington 7-8—Three games left: all home against WSU, SC and UCLA.

PAC-12 BOTTOM TIER
Stanford 7-8—Three games left: home against Colorado, home against Utah, and at Cal.
Utah 3-11—Four games left: at Cal, at Stanford, home against OSU and home against Oregon.
Oregon State 3-12—Three games left: all on the road at Oregon, Utah and Colorado.
Washington State 2-13 —Three games left: at Washington, home against UCLA and home against USC.

RB Damien Thigpen: Losing Johnathan Franklin is a big blow, but watch out, Thigpen may take you by surprise. This kid has breakaway speed, moves up and down very well and he’s a reliable receiver. Thigpen really made his presence felt last year backing up J. Frank. Unfortunately, his season was cut short due to a torn ACL in his right knee. I expect him to make a recovery and compete for the starting job in Spring.

WR Shaq Evans: Talk about a deep threat, look it up in a dictionary and his face will pop up. A transfer from Notre Dame, Evans caught 60 passes for 877 yards and 3 touchdowns. The touchdown numbers might not stand out, but this kid made some big plays throughout the year. Just adding another threat to Brett Hundley’s arsenal.

Credit: Kirby Lee/Image of Sport-USA TODAY Sports

LB ANTHONY BARR: Why is his name in caps? Well, it’s obvious. Every time he made a tackle, it was a big one. An F-Back converted to LB, Barr made national headlines, and was even a projected top 15 pick (per Mel Kiper). Anthony Barr’s presence, whether it’s sacking a quarterback, stuffing the run, or just communicating on D, is ALWAYS felt. I’m really excited about him; he has great potential. And he gets even more points since he decided to stick around for his senior year.

HC Jim Mora: No, he’s not a player, I know that. Mora was great during his first year at UCLA. He lead the Bruins to a PAC-12 South title and a 9-5 record, all with a freshman quarterback and a young team. Mora could’ve walked out on UCLA and taken a job in the NFL, but he didn’t. Major props to him for choosing to finish what he started. It’s reassuring to have a coach that is willing to turn down the spotlight and stick to his team.

Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports

With the second half of the Pac-12 season starting this evening for UCLA, the natives are understandably restless.

The Bruins have lost 3 of their last 4 games, slid to fourth place in the conference, and five of their last nine games are on the road. The season is poised to derail at least insofar as UCLA hasn’t lived up to expectations and we have zero momentum on the downhill run of the schedule.

With our current situation in mind, the obvious question is: what can be fixed to right the ship?

Here are five possible areas for improvement for your consideration.

Better shot selection: Teams have figured us out. They can’t run with us, so they slip a defender or two back to kill transition baskets, force us into the half court and dare us to shoot from the outside. We have obliged. We can’t stop the former, but we can control the latter, at least in terms of shot selection. Our shot selection is totally suspect. We settle for jumpers way too often.

Driving the lane and attacking the basket draws fouls, getting us higher percentage shots and setting up the perimeter game on our terms. This simple adjustment should positively affect the rebounding imbalance we suffer from, and increase the likelihood we will start winning again. Oh, and making sure Travis Wear takes a shot or two the last 10 minutes of a game (SC) might help, too. Fixing this is CRITICAL.

Division of playing time: Norman Powell and Tony Parker need to see the floor more. With Shabazz and Jordan throwing up bricks against SC, Powell should have seen more minutes if for no other reason than to give them more rest. Powell went 0-3 from the floor that game (all 3-point shots), so he really needs some “attack the basket” marching orders, but he should be utilized more. Parker is our only hope of having a stopper on the interior on defense, if he can avoid foul trouble. Getting stops in the Pac-12 and NCAA Tourney will be paramount. Parker must have more minutes to develop a rhythm.

Improve rebounding: I personally believe the bad rebounding stats have more to do with our shot selection (including when we shoot) and tendency to leak out for transition baskets than any lack of rebounding fundamentals. Whatever the reason for the less than stellar rebounding stats, rebounding is critical as most shots result in a miss and controlling the rebound helps dictate success. Narrowing the rebounds per game disparity will be a good indicator of measurable correction.

Protect our home court: We have to hold serve at Pauley Pavilion every game, every season. Failing perfection at home, we have to at least not lose to the SC’s and Cal-Poly’s of the world at a minimum. As pointed out above, we only have four home games left so holding serve is also critical for any hopes we have of making the tourney at all. Oddly enough, we have a better road record in the Pac-12 (3-1) than home record (3-2). Holding serve at Pauley is life or death.

Timing of time outs: Bill Walton has been a pretty vocal, and more often than not, nonsensical critic of Coach Howland on TV broadcasts. Love me some Bill, but most of what he says from a technical standpoint is silly. Even his criticism of Coach Howland’s time out management is a bit whacky, but there is a morsel of truth.

Coach Howland needs to resist the urge to call a time out when we’re attacking. Want to call a time out because of bad defense? Call it after we get the ball across half court and have determined whether or not a quick score is available. We cannot afford to kill our own transition opportunities. Correcting this coaching strategy would provide a boost to our offense.

There are several other aspects of the game that folks might point out that also need fixing, but if the Bruins can get a handle on those detailed above, we would be well on the way to winning more games, performing consistently and being a more dangerous team in the postseason.

Jan. 30, 2013; Los Angeles, CA, USA; UCLA Bruins forward David Wear (12) and USC Trojans forward Aaron Fuller (21) go for a rebound during the second half at Pauley Pavilion. USC won 75-71 in overtime. Mandatory Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports

Russell O’Risky continues his “This Ain’t Rocket Science” series by examining UCLA’s loss to USC on Wednesday night.

Let this sink in: Southern Cal 75 – UCLA 71. Sigh. Twenty hours later I think I’m able to give some semblance of an objective assessment. Let’s get the basics out of the way. I read a lot about bad defense and poor rebounding as I stumbled around the Internet this morning. I’ll address those aspects first.

Southern Cal averages 65.7 ppg. We allowed 65 points to them in regulation. Only three teams have held Southern Cal to 65 points or less in regulation in the Pac-12. The Bruins held SC to 27 points in the second half. Yes, SC got some easy baskets. Yes, they grabbed 10 offensive rebounds. But! At the end of the day we held them to their overall season average, and below their Pac-12 average (68.2). So while I saw some less than stellar defense on the part of the Bruins, Anderson and Adams the most egregious offenders, the fact is SC didn’t exactly light it up. In fact, they tried hard to lose the game. SC had 17 turnovers including having the ball stolen by the Bruins 11 times. SC took some awful shots. They got their fair share of second chances. The Bruins defense was not stellar, but their opponent sucked mustering only 65 points.

According to ESPN, SC grabbed 42 rebounds: 10 offensive and 32 defensive. UCLA grabbed eight les: 10 offensive and 24 defensive. As I pointed out in “This Ain’t Rocket Science”, when you jack up a lot of jumpers or low percentage shots your rebounding will suffer. SC had some opportune and sometimes muscled out second chances off the offensive boards. UCLA got some second chance points, too. I think we’ve figured out they’re not going to dominate the boards this season, however, they didn’t lose because of rebounding.

They lost, drum roll please, because of poor shot selection. The Bruins jacked up 27 jumpers in the first half. They made 7. That’s 25.9%. They lost the first half by 8 points. In the second half they shot 18 jumpers and made 7 for 38.9% shooting. They won the second half by 8 points. For the game the Bruins shot 49 jumpers and made 15 for a 30.6% clip. Nice.

So in a game where the Bruins shot 25 free throws to SC’s 8 in regulation, they found a way to lose. In a game where the Bruins made 17 free throws in regulation to SC’s 6, they found a way to lose. In a game where the Bruins had 11 steals to SC’s 3 and only had 7 turnovers to SC’s 17, we found a way to lose. All those stats normally point to a victorious team even with the rebounding edge to the opponent. We lost.

Why? Poor shot selection. Because none of the cable providers in my area carry Pac-12 Network, I had to listen to the game live over the Internet on UCLA Radio. Guess what Mr. “Jumpshot” himself, Tracy Murray, said during the broadcast? IIRC, he said, “I’m a shooter, but when I played even I knew enough to attack the basket when my shots weren’t falling. You take your shots, get a feel, and adjust. They ain’t falling, take it to the rack.”

What I’m trying to figure out at this point is whose fault is it? The obvious answer is Coach Howland. The thing is though is that he’s essentially turned these guys loose as part of the open offense evolution. He’s told the players that if they’re wide open regardless of where the shot clock is, they’ve got a green light. The fact is a lot of the jumpers they took were pretty wide open. They just weren’t falling. So… if your shots aren’t falling you…? In fact, I always told my teams shot selection is like boxing: you throw jabs (high percentage shots) and then throw punches (low percentage shots) as weaknesses show and opportunities appear. It’s a simple concept, and basketball is a simple game. It sez here that this still ain’t rocket science: take it to the rack.

A FEW SIDE NOTES… I’m sorry, but there’s no way I want Shabazz Muhammad taking twice as many shots (18) as Travis Wear (9). In fact, late in a game I’d rather Wear shoot more. Travis Wear took his last shot at 10:33 left in regulation… LDII has no business shooting 11 shots… Norman Powell contributed 0 points on 0 for 3 shooting beyond the arc, and 1 assist on offense in 14 minutes. Lame, I know, but I maintain he was under-utilized against SC. They went small in large segments of the game. Powell should have been out there. Shabazz had been sick. He needed more breaks. Mismanaged playing time in my humble opinion.

The Bruins came into this year with tons of hype and sights on contending for a national championship,

Mandatory Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-US PRESSWIRE

but things haven’t gone so smoothly for the boys in Westwood. Without any doubt, this team is about as talented as any team in the country, but it seems that the young fellas are having trouble building chemistry on the offensive end. Kyle Anderson is doing fine, but he needs to be able to score the ball, while Jordan Adams is playing at a high-level and Shabazz is being Shabazz.

What my big issue is, is starting Travis or David Wear. They’re labeled as “big men” but they are as soft as they come. They hate playing with their backs against the basket and they love, absolutely love shooting mid-range jumpers. On the defensive end, they continued to get bullied in the post, Ben Howland seems to be content playing them. It’s time to start Tony Parker, when healthy; this kid is a beast but he hasn’t gotten his time to shine this year. It’s very disappointing when we get all these talented kids, but Ben isn’t  giving them time.

Last night, UCLA was on a big-time run, and then to no ones surprise, Howland calls timeout. What happens next really dosn’t surprise me, SDSU ran away from UCLA after the timeout. Not only was the timeout dumb, he also took out Shabazz Muhammad who looked like he was about to take control of this game. It’s really unbelievable that he’d do that, but after all, it is Ben Howland.

Sorry Ben, but you’re time is up.

While any time one of our teams reaches a NCAA final it is noteworthy, tomorrow’s water polo game will be especially noteworthy, as we’ll be playing the Trojans. ‘SC has won the last 4, and this will be the 4th time UCLA will face them in the finals.

Californian teams have typically always dominated water polo, winning the last 43 times. It’s no surprise that for the 44th time, a Californian team will win it all again. ‘SC has a slightly better team this year, though it should prove competitive as the gap isn’t very large. It is worth noting, however, that the game will be played at USC.

Tomorrow’s game WILL NOT be broadcasted on tv, but you can still watch the game at the NCAA official website. (Thanks, non-revenue sports!)

You can view the interactive bracket here: http://www.ncaa.com/interactive-bracket/waterpolo-men/nc

(That’s also where you will see the link to watch the game tomorrow at 3:15 pacific time.)

By the way, if you’re wondering, the image for this article is of Adam Wright, who won the silver medal for USA in the 2008 Olympics. He’s also played for UCLA during college and is an excellent hire (thus far).

One of the key role players for the Bruins will be junior guard, Tyler Lamb. I’m a big fan of his, this young fella is a 3-tool player. He can score, dish out assists and rebound for his size. Last year, he averaged 9.0

Mandatory Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-US PRESSWIRE

points per, 1.7 steals per, 2.8 assist per and 3.6 rebounds per while shooting a below average 40%. Those numbers aren’t going to jump out at you, but he certainly does the small things. Tyler Lamb hustles, and that’s what I really like about him, he never quits on a play and he dives for loose balls. Will he be overshadowed by Shabazz, Kyle Anderson and Jordan Adams? Yes, but that doesn’t mean you shouldn’t pay close attention to him.

Tyler does have room for improvement, he shot a dismal 67% from the charity stripe and his FG% was 40%, if he can up his FT percentage to about 75-80% will be great, making free-throws has always been an achilles heel for UCLA, they must improve. As is field goal percentage is concerned, it’s all about taking smart shots that are in your range. Lamb could has the potential to be deadly coming off of screens because he’s on point from mid range.

Lamb is great on the defensive end, he racks up his fair share of steals, he’s a good help defender and he’s a great on-ball defender. He’s the key guy defensively, the defensive stopper. It all starts with defense, that’s why UCLA is so high on Lamb. I love his potential, he has a very high ceiling. He should have his best year as a Bruin this season.

Arizona State, at 5-1, enters their Thursday night showdown against Oregon riding high.  Winners of their last three games by almost 25 ppg, the Sun Devils are a well-rounded, fundamentally sound, and discipline football team.  Wait, what?  Yes.  ASU is playing smart, relatively penalty free football.  They match their quick strike offense with a fast, physical defense.   Sounds weird, huh?  It’s true, however, and ASU has not only minimized penalties, but they are playing smack-you-in-the-mouth defense.  Through six games, Arizona State ranks 9^th in the country in scoring defense and is giving up only 14.2 points per game.

Despite giving up over 42 ppg against the Ducks the last three years, there is optimism amongst the Sun Devil faithful that they can limit the high powered attack that the Ducks bring week in and week out.  Even while struggling at times, Arizona State always had plenty of speed on defense under former head coach Dennis Erickson.  That speed and that talent is now being harnessed and the Sun Devils defense is better than it has been in years under co-defensive coordinators Paul Rudolph and Ron West.

As UCLA has a well-timed bye week, we suggest you tune in Thursday night and prepare for what is in store for the Bruins on Saturday, October 27^th at Sun Devil Stadium.  Yesterday, we gave you three things to watch from ASU’s offense vs. Oregon’s defense.  Let’s now take a look at the three things to watch from ASU’s defense vs. Oregon’s offense.

• How good is Will Sutton?  Last week, we talked glowingly about the sheer dominance of Utah defensive lineman Star Lotulelei.  This week, it’s Will Sutton.  From a production standpoint, Will Sutton is off the charts.  At 6-2 271 pounds, he may not be the physical force that Lotulelei is, but he is challenging him as the best defensive lineman in the conference, and possibly the country.  As an interior defensive lineman, the numbers Sutton is putting up are astronomical.  He has 40 tackles and 8.5 sacks already.  He is very fast off the ball and has a strong motor.  He is one defensive lineman who could keep up with the pace that Oregon plays.  Will his teammates help him?  Can he do it for four quarters?  We’ll find out.
• Is the ASU defense very good or have their opponents been very bad?  Statistically, Arizona State is one of the best defensive teams in the country.  Led by Sutton, they pass the eye test, as well, and look to have a defense that can sustain success throughout the meat of the Pac 12 schedule.  However, they haven’t played anybody worth a lick.  Their one loss came to an SEC school, but it is newly minted Missouri, who has struggled to adjust and is 0-4 in conference play.  They gave up seven points to Utah, which is the same as the UCLA defense(minus the Manfro muffed punt/TD).  They gave up 17 to Colorado, while UCLA gave up 14.  They did hold Cal to 17, while UCLA gave up 43.  Are they similar to UCLA or are they as good as their 9^th ranked defense indicates?  If they can hold Oregon under 35 points, it will prove they are at the very least a solid defensive team.
• How will they handle De’Anthony Thomas?  DAT.  The Black Mamba.  Call him whatever you want, but don’t let him out of your sights.  In the blink of an eye, he’s gone.  De’Anthony Thomas is considered by most the fastest player in college football.  Oregon head coach Chip Kelly has been reluctant to overwork the sophomore speedster because of his slight frame, but as the season goes on, the Ducks will need to give Thomas 20+ touches per game to keep their national championship aspirations alive.  How will the Sun Devils handle him?  That’s what every opponent asks each week.  Will they punt to him?  They shouldn’t.  On defense, do they have the speed to play man coverage when he’s at receiver.  ASU loves to blitz, but do they lay back to avoid getting beat by The Mamba?  Do they have the discipline to keep outside contain and not let him get in the open field?  Tune in tomorrow night and find out.

Arizona State is 5-1 and riding high at the half way point of the season.  Not many felt that first year Head Coach Todd Graham was going to turn around a fundamentally flawed program in anything remotely close to one year.  The Sun Devils under previous Head Coach Dennis Erickson were consistently undisciplined, unorganized, and chronic underachievers.  Todd Graham, who has a reputation as a disciplinarian, wasn’t a popular choice in Tempe, however, but Sun Devil faithful have been pleasantly surprised so far.

The UCLA Bruins, also led by first year Head Coach Jim Mora, have been another surprise in conference play.  Sitting at 5-2, the Bruins have a bye week before taking on the Sun Devils on Saturday, October 27^th at Sun Devil Stadium.  During the bye week, the UCLA coaches will obviously prepare for the Sun Devils as well as possible, but fans deserve knowledge, as well.  ASU takes on Oregon this Thursday on ESPN.

Here are three things to think about as you watch ASU take on Oregon:

1. Is Taylor Kelly for real?  Sophomore Quarterback Taylor Kelly may individually be the biggest surprise of the season so far in the Pac 12.  He is completing 68% of his passes, averaging 266.67 yards per game, and has a 14:2 touchdown to interception ratio.  Admittedly, ASU has played a soft schedule thus far and haven’t seen a defense with the speed of Oregon all season(not many have).  If Kelly performs at a high level against the Ducks on Thursday, he will likely give the Bruins fits.
2. Who gets the bulk of the carries?  Last season, Cameron Marshall rushed for over 1,000 yards and was expected to have another big year for the Sun Devils.  Thus far, besides his red zone effectiveness, Marshall has struggled a bit.  Freshman Running Back D.J. Foster has come in and lit up scoreboards.  He averages 6.0 yards per carry and leads the team in rushing yards despite having 17 less carries than Marshall on the season.  Who does Todd Graham trust in a big game?  Can Marshall step up and find his 2011 form?  Does D.J. Foster have what it takes right now to be “the man” for the Sun Devils?  We will find out Thursday.
3. What is the role of Michael Eubank?  Eubank was considered by many the man to beat for the QB position.  He got beat out by Kelly, but hasn’t disappeared.  He is used in the wildcat and pistol formations at times and is fifth on the team in rushing.  He hasn’t been as effective as Graham had hoped running the ball, however, and he has seen a decline in his snaps the last couple weeks.  He does throw the ball well and is 16/22 for 147 yards and two touchdowns on the season.

The Bruins catch a break with their well-timed bye week.  ASU has slid under the radar for the first half of the season, but will be on national television against the number 3 team in the nation on a Thursday night.  If ASU answers the aforementioned questions and passes the Oregon test, win or lose, with a solid grade, UCLA will be in for a dogfight.  If they wilt on the big stage, and get crushed by an opponent superior to almost all, they leave doubt.  Arizona State appears to be a good team, but tune in Thursday to find out just how good.

Coaches:
* Gameplan. Yes, coaches gameplan every week. They watch extensive film every week. They find tendencies and look for ways to exploit them. What they can do, and often actually do during bye weeks, is let their creative voices be heard. Trick plays, new formations, new packages, and plenty of surprises are staples of late-season football. The Bruins have tendencies just like every other team and the coaches will look for ways to break their own tendencies, and create mismatches that others have yet to see on film.
* Hit the recruiting trail hard. During a bye week, it’s time to travel for most assistant coaches. Most coaching staffs, including the UCLA staff, break up recruiting responsibilities not only by position groups, but regional recruiting zones. This is done so that coaches can create long term relationships with different programs. Friday and Saturday nights when Recruit A and B are playing in the Bay Area, expect to see Defensive Line coach Angus McClure there. When Recruit C from Los Angeles is lining up for the opening kickoff, expect to see Receiver Coach Eric Yarber in attendance. It’s a big week in recruiting every year and solidifies with recruits the commitment coaches have to them. Go get ‘em!

Players:
* Take care of your body.  With a bye week comes time to heal the inevitable aches and pains of playing seven consecutive weeks of football.  Practices are usually lighter and players will receive an extra day off. Receive treatment, ice, hot tub, cold tub, and eat right.
* Watch more film. With more time to prepare, there is more time to perfect the art of studying film. The goal each week is to know the opponent greater than they know themselves. An extra seven days gives them a chance to watch much more film.

Fans:
* Rest, relax, and prepare. Seven weeks into the Jim Mora era and the Bruins are a solid 5-2, with the schedule getting increasingly more difficult. Take the week off and spend it with your family, friends, or just sit on the couch and watch football all weekend. No matter what you do, be ready when the Bruins need you. With three home games remaining, including a November matchup against the hated Trojans, fans need to bring it just like the players. Relax for a week, then finish strong! See you at the Rose Bowl October 3rd.