Upon Further Review: ASU Unproven
After coming into the season ranked in the top 10 of many polls and being the sweetheart pick of many prognosticators to make the College Football Playoff, UCLA has taken a beating in the media for starting the season in a slow and unimpressive fashion. The Bruins started 2-0 but dropped in the polls both weeks. Now sitting at 3-0 and preparing to open the Pac-12 schedule in Tempe this Thursday against Arizona State, UCLA sits just outside the top 10 and the super early media projections now have them slotted for bowls in San Antonio (Alamo) and San Diego (Holiday).
“all 3-0 teams are not equal, and it is clear that UCLA has faced a much tougher schedule than ASU …”
Meanwhile, Arizona State started the season ranked #19 and has risen in the poles every week to land at #15 before taking on UCLA. Flying mostly under the radar in games that very few national voters actually saw, the Sun Devils have rang up some pretty gaudy stats against some pretty inferior opponents. As of Tuesday night, UCLA is listed as a 4 point favorite on the road against Arizona State, a number due in large part to an injury to ASU’s starting QB Taylor Kelly. With or without Kelly, UCLA is the first stiff competition that the Sun Devils have faced in 2014. All 3-0 teams are not equal, and it is clear that UCLA has faced a much tougher schedule than ASU leading up to this game.
Sun Devils Unchallenged Offense
Arizona has undeniably put up some terrific numbers this season. The Sun Devils are ranked #7 in scoring offense and #13 in total offense due in large part to averaging 304 yards rushing per game (#11). Running Back D.J. Foster has proven to be an unstoppable force for Sun Devil opponents, averaging 9.4 yards per carry (YPC). Up until his injury, Kelly had been brutally efficient as he passed for about 200 yards per game and averaged 8.8 YPC on the ground himself. Those numbers are a little less impressive when you consider the opponents that Arizona State faced.
In week 1, ASU racked up 45 points and almost 600 yards of offense against FCS Weber State. The game was truly a tune-up with the ASU starters only playing the first half against a helpless and under-qualified FCS opponent. By the way, Weber State is still looking for its first win of the season, starting 0-4 against ASU and 3 FCS opponents. The appeal of a team putting an FCS school on the schedule to get all of the kinks out is understandable (every FBS school save UCLA, USC and Notre Dame has succumbed to the urge at least once), but stats for these games should be recorded with an asterisk attached.
Week 2 saw the Sun Devils beat up on lowly New Mexico 58-23. While ASU should get a little credit for actually playing an FBS opponent, New Mexico is a perennial doormat from a lesser conference. The Lobos finished 3-9 in 2013, and have started the season 1-2 (losing to ASU and UTEP but beating rival New Mexico State). Foster tore through the New Mexico defense for 216 yards, but really how impressive is that number against a Lobo team that finished #122 against the run in 2013 and is currently ranked dead last (#128) in the same category after 3 games in 2014? New Mexico has been one of the worst teams in the country the past 2 years in terms of total defense (currently #120, #121 in 2013) and scoring defense (currently #119, #120 in 2013).
The Sun Devils opened the PAC-12 schedule with a big 38-24 win over Colorado. The story of the game was Kelly’s injury, but the fact that this game was pretty competitive was lost in the shuffle. ASU started the game with a blitzkrieg of 17 straight points, but from that point forward the Buffaloes outscored the Devils 24-21 and lost the game due to their own mistakes more than anything the Sun Devils did. After storming back from 17-0 with two 2nd quarter touchdown drives, Colorado fumbled the ball deep in its own territory. ASU was able to resieize the momentum with a quick touchdown and escape to the half up 24-14. In the second half, Colorado gave up 14 more points to ASU, but only managed 3 points on two trips inside the Sun Devil 10 yard line. Arizona State deserves the credit for making the most of the opportunities presented, but as was the case with New Mexico, the Buffaloes are a terrible defensive team. In 2013 Colorado finished #108 in Total Defense, #114 in Scoring Defense and #102 in Rushing Defense. So far this year the Buffaloes are #56, #114 and #90 in the same categories respectively.
The Sun Devils deserve credit for executing against inferior opponents, but the reality it that the ASU offense has not gone up against an even mediocre defense so far in 2014.
Sparky’s Porous Defense
Sep 6, 2014; Albuquerque, NM, USA; New Mexico Lobos running back Crusoe Gongbay (2) scores a touchdown against the Arizona State Sun Devils during the first half at University Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports
If the Sun Devil offense has been impressive against sub-par competition, the Sun Devil Defense has been merely adequate to start the year. The Sun Devils have not allowed a huge amount of points (#33 in Scoring Defense) and have forced 2 turnovers per game, but they have had trouble giving up yardage on the ground (#75 in Total Defense and #99 in Rushing Defense). What should be most concerning for ASU fans is the number of big runs given up by the Sun Devil defenders. In 3 games this season, the Sun Devils have already given up 18 runs of 10 yards or more and 7 runs of 20+ yards. It should be noted that New Mexico is a triple option team that almost exclusively runs the ball, but even Weber State gashed ASU for 37 and 60 yard runs. Colorado managed 232 yards against ASU, which was 70 yards above their average output and 80 more than the Buffs managed against lowly UMass.
The Sun Devils defense is extremely green with 9 new starters on that side of the ball. The unit should get some credit for some timely big plays, but the ASU defense has not yet faced a quality opponent and has still struggled at times.
UCLA’s “Inferior” Competition
A quick look back at the opponents UCLA has taken so much heat for shows a clear misconception when it comes to the level of competition the Bruins have faced this year. The Bruin offense struggled against Virginia in large part because of injuries to the offensive line (center Jake Brendel in particular, who had started two straight years worth of games). The Bruins defense scored 3 first half touchdowns, and the Cavaliers never really threatened until scoring a touchdown in the 3rd quarter to make the score 21-17. However, the Bruin offense showed tremendous grit and responded with their own touchdown drive late in the 3rd quarter that put the game out of reach. looking back, despite the national perception, Virginia has shown itself to be a pretty good team. The Cavs have started the season 2-2, but they have played 3 ranked opponents. Not only did they give the Bruins all they could handle, but the Cavs beat #21 Louisville and were leading against BYU in the 3rd quarter (although BYU won the game). By any measure, Virginia is a better team than any of ASU’s opponents so far.
Sep 13, 2014; Charlottesville, VA, USA; Virginia Cavaliers quarterback Greyson Lambert (11) celebrates with fans on the field after the Cavaliers game against the Louisville Cardinals at Scott Stadium. The Cavaliers won 23-21. Mandatory Credit: Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports
The Bruins also struggled against Memphis, although this time the problems were on defense. UCLA gave up 3 first half touchdowns due largely in part to 8 uncharacteristic missed tackles. With Brendel back at center and facing off against an opponent from a non-power conference, the Bruin offense put up some impressive stats of their own, ringing up 540 total yards, 30 first downs, close to 400 yards passing and 45 points. Once again, mistakes were addressed at halftime, and the Bruin defense gave up only 7 points in the second half and shut the Memphis offense completely down on the last 3 drives to end the game. In hindsight, Memphis has also exceeded expectations this year. The Tigers sit at 2-1, they have the #13 scoring offense in the nation, and they are eagerly awaiting a showdown against #10 Ole Miss this Saturday. As the Bruins only opponent outside the power conferences this year, Memphis is also arguably better than any of ASU’s opponents, and the Tigers are certainly superior to New Mexico and FBS Weber State.
When the game was scheduled, Texas was supposed to be the marquee out of conference game for the Bruins this year, but recent times have been tough for the Longhorns. UCLA walked into Jerry World looking to make a statement against a severely depleted Longhorn team. However, the odds were somewhat equalized when Brett Hundley went down in the 1st quarter, and the Bruins had to battle for the victory with Jerry Neuheisal at the helm. The Bruins were happy and a fortunate to escape Dallas with a victory, but the offense managed to heal its struggling running game along the way against a quality Big-12 defense. Texas is not a good team in 2014, however the Longhorns still have Big-12 athletes and the stage for the game was huge.
Unchallenged vs Battle Tested
Arizona State has proven that it can ring up big numbers against lesser opponents, but all the Sun Devils have to show for the hot start is 1 win against the conference doormat and an injured starting QB. How will they fare against the fast and physical front 7 of the Bruins? UCLA has had to grind out wins against game opponents, but is there something to be said for rising to the challenge? What is better for a team trying to build a successful season, a hot start or a little adversity?
The good news is we don’t have to wait much longer to find out.